Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi in Bundesliga Predictions
Two of the Bundesliga’s lowest-scoring teams of the 2025-26 season will be on view on matchday 11 as St Pauli host Union Berlin. This match at Millerntor-Stadion between the 16th-placed Kiezkicker and the 11th-placed Die Eisernen comes with our prediction of less than 2.5 goals.
With seven points ahead of this round, St. Pauli (W2, D1, L7) are in the relegation play-off spot, separated by goal difference from the safety zone. Union have 12 points (W3, D3, L4) and are three points behind the top eight before this weekend.
St Pauli welcomed the international break, not because they were beaten 2-1 away at Freiburg. It was part of their seven-game losing sequence in the league, which has all but erased the positives of seven points from the first three matchdays.
Even at home, St Pauli were beaten in their last three Bundesliga games played here, while conceding nine goals in those defeats.
Union went into the international break on a high, holding Bayern Munich to a 2-2 home draw. That was their second point in a row in the league, both coming at their home venue.
They still have a lot to improve on the road, as Union lost three of their four away league games this season (W1, L3), with all three seeing them fail to score.
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The Best Betting Odds for St. Pauli v Union Berlin Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.45 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
|
|
2.4 | 3.2 | 3 |
|
|
2.45 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
|
|
2.5 | 3.2 | 2.88 |
|
|
2.4 | 3.25 | 2.9 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between St. Pauli and Union Berlin?
Our prediction for the St. Pauli vs Union Berlin match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 23/11/2025 between St. Pauli and Union Berlin in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.11% for a win of St. Pauli against Union Berlin with odds of 2.56 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between St. Pauli vs Union Berlin is 19.1% with odds of 3.38 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 44.79% chance ⭐ for a win of Union Berlin vs St. Pauli with odds of 3.04 at 888Starz.
St. Pauli vs Union Berlin Form
St. Pauli and Union Berlin's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11
|
12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 |
|
16
|
7 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 |
St. Pauli and Union Berlin Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
25 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
19 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
19 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
27 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
14 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
25 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
19 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
3 Sept 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
29 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
24 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
17 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
17 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
13 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
21 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
31 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Aug 2025 - DFB Pokal
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
St. Pauli vs Union Berlin Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
0 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Jan 2025 - Bundesliga
30 Aug 2024 - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2022 - DFB Pokal
Missing players
D. Nemeth
A. Dzwigala
MidfielderR. Jade-Jones
A. Markgraf
C. Trimmel
MidfielderA. Kemlein
ForwardR. Skov
Most goals and assists
St. Pauli
Union Berlin
D. Doekhi
(5 Goals)
E. Smith
(1 Assists)
, 
J. Fujita
(1 Assists)
, 
M. Pereira Lage
(1 Assists)
, 
D. Sinani
(1 Assists)
, 
M. Saliakas
(1 Assists)
, 
C. Metcalfe
(1 Assists)
A. Ilic
(5 Assists)
St. Pauli and Union Berlin Stats in Bundesliga
St. Pauli - Union Berlin Key Points
- St. Pauli failed to score in their last two home league matches.
- Both St. Pauli and Union failed to score in five of their ten Bundesliga matches respectively.
- Union failed to score in three of their five away league games this season.
- In four of Union’s last six Bundesliga matches, there have been fewer than three goals.
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Our St. Pauli vs Union Berlin Prediction
Both St Pauli and Union Berlin have struggled to keep the adrenaline going, failing to score in five of their ten league games this season. St Pauli are also among the lowest scorers in the division, with only Heidenheim scoring fewer goals than the hosts ahead of this round. Low scoring has been the norm even when St Pauli are playing at this venue, while Union have followed the same trend on their travels.
Goals could once again be scarce here, and our St. Pauli vs Union Berlin prediction is less than 2.5 goals.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
