Sporting Lisbon vs Porto Prediction & Betting Tips - Taca de Portugal
Portugal - Taca de Portugal
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Devesh Jaganath | in Football Predictions
The first leg semi-final of the Taca de Portugal brings us an O Classico, with Sporting Lisbon set to take on Porto at Estadio Jose Alvalade on Tuesday night. The winner of this match between Os Leoes and Dradoes will meet either Fafe or Torreense in the final of this year’s competition. Let’s get into the key stats!
Sporting Lisbon booked their spot in the final of this year’s Taca de Portugal by beating AVS 3-2 in extra-time in the quarter-final last month, keeping their hopes of defending their title alive.
The Lions picked up a 3-0 victory over Estoril at the weekend and are now unbeaten in their last 10 matches across all competitions (W9 D1), dating back to early January against Vitoria Guimaraes.
The hosts are also on a six-match win streak at Estadio Jose Alvalade across all competitions, but were beaten by this opponent 2-1 at this venue in the league earlier this season.
Meanwhile, Porto saw off Benfica 1-0 in the quarter-final and are now looking to win their fourth Taca de Portugal title in the last five seasons (2022, 2023 and 2024).
The Dragons maintained their four-point lead at the top of the league standings with a 3-1 victory over Arouca on Friday night and have only lost one of their last 18 matches in all competitions.
That defeat came on the road against Casa Pia at the start of February, but the visitors have kept clean sheets in six of their last eight away games across all competitions.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Sporting Lisbon v Porto Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.09 | 3.05 | 3.95 |
|
|
2 | 2.98 | 4.33 |
|
|
2.09 | 2.93 | 4.05 |
|
|
2 | 3 | 4.33 |
|
|
2.08 | 2.98 | 4.1 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Sporting Lisbon and Porto?
Our prediction for the Sporting Lisbon vs Porto match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 03/03/2026 between Sporting Lisbon and Porto in Taca de Portugal :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 51.16% for a win of Sporting Lisbon against Porto with odds of 2.1 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Sporting Lisbon vs Porto is 18.6% with odds of 3.05 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.25% chance ⭐ for a win of Porto vs Sporting Lisbon with odds of 4.55 at Shangrila.
Sporting Lisbon - Porto Prediction and Best Odds:
| Sporting Lisbon Porto Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 51.16% | 2.1 at LSbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.01% | 2.5 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.92% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Sporting Lisbon | 26.75% | 5.25 at LSbet |
Sporting Lisbon vs Porto Form
Sporting Lisbon and Porto Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
15 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
9 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
5 Feb 2026 - Taca de Portugal
1 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
15 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
5 Feb 2026 - Taca de Portugal
1 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
9 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
2 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
23 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
15 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
9 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
2 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
9 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
26 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Jan 2026 - Taca de Portugal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
2 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
4 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
Sporting Lisbon vs Porto Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
30 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
7 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
7 Jan 2025 - Portugal League Cup
31 Aug 2024 - Liga Portugal
3 Aug 2024 - Portugal Super Cup
Sporting Lisbon vs Porto last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Virginia
DefenderQuaresma
G. Vagiannidis
MidfielderJ. Simoes
D. Braganca
P. Goncalves
S. Faye
R. Nel
N. Santos
C. Ramos
DefenderD. Prpic
Z. Sanusi
J. Kiwior
G. Veiga
O. Pietuszewski
V. Froholdt
D. Gul
A. Miranda
Sporting Lisbon - Porto Key Points
- Seven of Sporting Lisbon’s last nine games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Sporting Lisbon have scored two or more goals in eight of their last 10 home matches.
- Five of Porto’s last six games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Both teams have scored in each of the last three matches between these sides.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Sporting Lisbon vs Porto Prediction
Sporting Lisbon enter this match in fine form, having notched up back-to-back 3-0 wins in their last two matches, while they are now riding a 10-match unbeaten streak dating back to early January.
However, Porto have been excellent this season and also delivered an impressive performance against Arouca at the weekend. Each of the last three matches between these sides ended with both teams scoring, and we’re expecting the same outcome in this one. Our Sporting Lisbon vs Porto prediction is BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Sporting Lisbon Porto
| Sporting Lisbon vs Porto | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0% |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.05 | -3.2% |
| Porto wins | 3.6 | 4.55 | +26.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Sporting Lisbon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have not changed since opening
- The probability of this result was 47.6% and is now 47.6% (0.0%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
