South Africa vs Japan Prediction & Betting Tips - Test Matches
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by Ita Emmanuel | in Rugby Predictions
South Africa will begin their end-of-year tour of the Northern Hemisphere taking on Japan at Wembley Stadium on Saturday. The Springboks will look to get off to a winning start against the Brave Blossoms. Let's get into details and our prediction.
It is exactly 10 years since Japan stunned South Africa in the “Miracle of Brighton” in the 2015 Rugby World Cup. The two teams return to England on Saturday to renew hostilities for the fourth time in their history. Meanwhile, South Africa head into Saturday's clash as the leading force in world rugby. The Springboks also recently retained the World Rugby Championship title, becoming the first team to do so in the competition’s history.
While Japan have improved in recent years, they are still down the pecking order in world rugby rankings. Eddie Jones’ side sit 12 places below South Africa, who are at the top. After their historic win in the “Miracle of Brighton,” they have lost their next two encounters with South Africa. Can they stun the Springboks at Wembley on Saturday? Continue reading as we dive into detailed stats and analyses!
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The Best Betting Odds for South Africa v Japan Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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1 | 67 | 34 |
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1.02 | 67 | 17 |
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1 | 60 | 14 |
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1 | 44 | 32 |
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1 | 45 | 45 |
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South Africa vs Japan Form
South Africa and Japan Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4 Oct 2025 - The Rugby Championship
27 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
13 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
6 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
23 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
16 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
27 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
23 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
16 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
19 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
4 Oct 2025 - The Rugby Championship
13 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
6 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
16 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
10 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
25 Oct 2025 - Test Matches
20 Sept 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
14 Sept 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
6 Sept 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
30 Aug 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
25 Oct 2025 - Test Matches
20 Sept 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
30 Aug 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
26 Oct 2024 - Test Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
14 Sept 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
6 Sept 2025 - World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup
24 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
9 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
17 Sept 2023 - Rugby World Cup
26 Aug 2023 - Test Matches
South Africa vs Japan Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
20 Oct 2019 - Rugby World Cup
South Africa - Japan: Form Analysis
South Africa have had a stunning rugby campaign this year. The Springboks enter this match top of the world rankings and off the back of a successful Rugby Championship campaign. They defeated Argentina 29-27 to become the first team to retain the Rugby Championship title.
Their history-making victory Rugby Championship victory at Twickenham saw the Springboks secure their 12th win in 14 matches. This impressive run included eight consecutive wins, most of which by wide margins.
South Africa boast an impressive 12-0-2 record in their last 14 matches
Japan will enter this match still nursing the heartbreak of their Pacific Nations Cup exit. The Brave Blossoms fell 33-27 to Fiji to crash out in the semifinals of the competition. They also suffered defeat in their most recent Test, losing by four points to Australia. Eddie Jones’ charges led by seven points in the second half, but an 11-point deficit in the first half saw them fall 19-15 to the Australians.
Notably, Eddie Jones' charges will find it hard to secure victory in this match. They have lost their last two encounters with South Africa by heavy margins – the most recent of which was a 26-3 defeat in the 2019 World Cup.
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South Africa & Japan Squad Analysis
The Springboks’ captain and legendary flanker Siya Kolisi will return to lead the team against Japan on Saturday. Kolisi has been crucial to the Springboks’ forward battles and will be a big threat to Japan's back row.
Fast-rising youngster Zachary Porthen will make his Test debut for South Africa against Japan
Fast-rising fly-half Sacha Feinberg‑Mngomezulu, who tallied three tries plus 37 points in the Rugby Championship, is another key player to watch for South Africa on Saturday. Erasmus has paired Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel at centre to boost the team’s midfield play.
Eddie Jones has made subtle changes to Japan for the South Africa showdown. Shogo Nakano has been dropped for Charlie Lawrence at centre after a below-par performance against Australia in the previous Test.
South Africa will also have to watch out for debutant Kenji Sato, who comes in at hooker for Hayate Era. Sato has won accolades for his energetic and creative play – qualities that have earned him his long-awaited Test debut for Japan. Jones will also hope to count on the experience of veteran No. 8 Michael Leitch, who will anchor the back row for the Brave Blossoms.
South Africa - Japan Key Points
- South Africa have won their last three matches.
- South Africa have won 12 of their last 14 matches, mostly by wide margins.
- Japan have lost their last two matches.
- Japan have lost their last two encounters with South Africa by blowout margins.
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Our South Africa vs Japan Prediction
Ranked 12 places below South Africa, Eddie Jones’ Japan will look to test their depth and quality against the World No. 1. They have lost their most recent two matches and their last two encounters with the Springboks by blowout margins.
Off the back of a triumphant campaign in the Rugby Championship, we expect South Africa to ease to victory in this tie. The reigning world champions have won 12 of their last 14 Tests, mostly by wide margins. Our South Africa vs Japan prediction is South Africa -37.5 handicap points.
South Africa vs Japan - Other Interesting Predictions
Under 63.5 total points
Five of South Africa’s last six matches have ended with under 63.5 total points. Japan's most recent two games have also ended below the 63.5 total points benchmark. Hence, we expect this match to fall below 64 total points.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
