Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang Prediction & Betting Tips - Hong Kong Open
ATP - Hong Kong Open
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Tennis Predictions
Day two of the RO16 in the Hong Kong Open will kick off with the second career meeting between Lorenzo Sonego and Juncheng Shang. After losing to Sonego on a walkover at this very stage of the 2024 Winston-Salem Open, Shang is eager to settle the score. But can the 406th-ranked Chinese man really beat Sonego at 39th? Let's get into this match prediction.
Interestingly, Sonego ended up winning the Winston-Salem Open after beating Shang in the RO16. And Sonego might feel he could lift his first Hong Kong Open if he can make it to the quarterfinal over Shang, especially after exiting to Cameron Norrie at this stage last time.
Sonego had a good opening with a straight-sets win over Rei Sakamoto. However, Shang will prove to be an even tougher opponent. Despite his 406th position in the ATP rankings, Shang's betting odds favour Shang to beat Sonego.
In fact, Shang was also the favorite to beat 66th-placed Francisco Comesana in the last round, and he did so with a cool 2-0 finish and 12-8 in games. Shang joined the ranks of one of only two Chinese men to win an ATP Tour title in the Open Era in the 2024 Chengdu Open. He plans to lift another not too far from home in Hong Kong.
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The Best Betting Odds for Lorenzo Sonego v Juncheng Shang Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2.3 | 1.62 |
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2.3 | 1.62 |
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2.23 | 1.68 |
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2.25 | 1.65 |
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2.2 | 1.6 |
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Who will win the Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang match is: Juncheng Shang wins.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang game on 07/01/2026 of the current Hong Kong Open season:
- Lorenzo Sonego has a 50.1% chance to win against Juncheng Shang according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 2.3.
- Juncheng Shang has a 49.9% probability of winning facing Lorenzo Sonego ⭐ with odds of 1.68 at Unibet.
Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Lorenzo Sonego has a 50.1 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Lorenzo Sonego | 50.1 % |
| Juncheng Shang | 49.9 % |
Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang Form
Lorenzo Sonego and Juncheng Shang Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
5 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
7 Nov 2025 - Moselle Open
6 Nov 2025 - Moselle Open
4 Nov 2025 - Moselle Open
3 Nov 2025 - Moselle Open
30 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
6 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
6 Oct 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
4 Oct 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
2 Oct 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
26 Sept 2025 - ATP Beijing Open
19 Sept 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
21 Aug 2024 - ATP Winston-Salem Open
Lorenzo Sonego - Juncheng Shang Key Points
- Shang has a far higher career win rate on hardcourt (63.9%), compared to Sonego (48.3%).
- Shang also has a greater career win rate in general (61.3%) than Sonego (55.7%).
- SofaScore shows that Shang actually wins 67% of the time when his odds imply 62% winning probability.
- In contrast, Sonego wins only 39% of the time when his odds imply 43% winning probability.
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Our Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang Prediction
We're backing Shang to get his revenge in this game. He didn't even get a chance to showcase his skill level as Sonego only progressed with a walkover. While Lorenzo is equally skilled and has more experience, Shang actually has the numbers on his side.
The Chinese man already edges his Italian counterpart in career win rate. But what's most glaring is the difference in hardcourt win rate, with Shang’s 63.9% to Sonego’s 48.3%. Hence, our Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang prediction is that Juncheng Shang wins.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
