Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Australian Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Australian Open Predictions
Sebastian Baez has made an excellent start to 2026. He takes on 22nd seed Luciano Darderi for a place in round three of the outdoor hard court Australian Open. Time for our match prediction.
In round three, the winner will take on either 15th seed Karen Khachanov or qualifier Nishesh Basavareddy.
In 2024 and 2025, Baez only won eight out of 26 matches played on this surface. His round one win over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in five sets saw him equal that total and it’s still only January.
Only one of his nine matches this year has been lost. That was to Jakub Mensik in the Auckland final. In the United Cup, Baez leads Darderi 4-2 in previous meetings. Only one was on this surface with Baez winning at the 2024 US Open in four sets.
He’s up to 34th in the live rankings, ten places below that of his opponent.
Luciano Darderi defeated unseeded Cristian Garin in round one for his first main draw win in this Grand Slam.
He’s also had problems on this surface in recent years. The past two years have seen him win only seven of his 27 matches. He’s also shown improvement this year and reached the quarter-finals in Auckland.
We tip Baez to win this match.
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Sebastian Baez v Luciano Darderi Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.53 | 2.5 |
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1.58 | 2.38 |
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1.5 | 2.63 |
|
|
1.53 | 2.34 |
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|
1.54 | 2.34 |
|
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Who will win the Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi match is: Sebastian Baez wins.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi game on 21/01/2026 of the current ATP Australian Open season:
- Sebastian Baez has a 67.8% chance to win against Luciano Darderi according to Betway ⭐ with the odds of 1.6.
- Luciano Darderi has a 32.2% probability of winning facing Sebastian Baez ⭐ with odds of 2.63 at Bet365.
Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Sebastian Baez has a 67.8 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Sebastian Baez | 67.8 % |
| Luciano Darderi | 32.2 % |
Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Form
Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
21 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
19 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
16 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
15 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
15 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
13 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
21 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
19 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
14 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
13 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
5 Nov 2025 - ATP Athens Hellenic Championship
27 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
21 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
18 Jul 2025 - ATP Bastad Open
26 Aug 2024 - ATP US Open
19 Jul 2024 - ATP Hamburg Open
15 Feb 2024 - ATP Buenos Aires
10 Feb 2024 - ATP Cordoba
Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi Key Points
- Baez has won eight of his nine outdoor hard court matches this year.
- Darderi hadn't won a main draw match in this Grand Slam before this week.
- Baez beat Darderi in their only previous outdoor hard court match.
- Baez has beaten two top-ten ranked players this month.
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Our Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Prediction
Sebastian Baez lost eight of his last nine matches played last year. His outdoor hard court form has been particularly disappointing but that's all changed this month. Two top ten ranked players have been beaten with eight out of nine matches won, only losing in a final.
He faces Luciano Darderi in round two of this Grand Slam. Baez won their only previous outdoor hard court match. Darderi has also been inconsistent on this suface. Our Sebastian Baez v Luciano Darderi prediction is Sebastian Baez wins.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
