Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in LaLiga Predictions
Atletico Madrid will hope to stay ahead in the top-four race in La Liga when they play Real Sociedad on Sunday in a matchday 18 fixture. This match in San Sebastian between the 16th-placed La Real and the third-placed Rojiblancos comes with our prediction of an away win.
Sociedad’s 17 points from 17 matches (W4, D5, L8) see them start this round two points above the relegation zone. Atletico’s 37 points from 18 matches (W11, D4, L3) see them start this round two points above Villarreal, who played two games fewer.
Sociedad were held to a 1-1 away draw at Levante in their last match before Christmas. That was their first point after three consecutive defeats, and the threat of relegation is still real.
Changing that narrative will depend on reviving their home form, but three defeats in the last five league games here, including two in a row, throw questions over their chances.
Atletico defeated Girona 3-0 away from home in their last game, posting a third competitive win in a row. In fact, with ten wins from their last 12 competitive matches, Atletico were peaking at the right time.
Eight wins out of the last ten league matches point to the fact that Atletico are a strong force, although they won only one of their last three league trips.
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Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4 | 3.8 | 1.93 |
|
|
3.94 | 3.8 | 1.86 |
|
|
3.92 | 3.88 | 1.85 |
|
|
3.6 | 3.8 | 1.91 |
|
|
3.9 | 3.7 | 1.86 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid match is: Atletico Madrid wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/01/2026 between Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 31.73% for a win of Real Sociedad against Atletico Madrid with odds of 4.1 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid is 8.89% with odds of 4.02 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 59.38% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad with odds of 1.93 at Stake.
Real Sociedad - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Real Sociedad Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 59.38% | 1.93 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.68% | 1.98 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 59.58% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Atletico Madrid | 26.74% | 5 at Bet365 |
Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Form
Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
69 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | +18 |
|
10
|
46 | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | -2 |
Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
16 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
12 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
30 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
30 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
24 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
24 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
16 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
7 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
13 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
8 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
23 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
10 May 2025 - LaLiga
6 Oct 2024 - LaLiga
25 May 2024 - LaLiga
8 Oct 2023 - LaLiga
28 May 2023 - LaLiga
3 Sept 2022 - LaLiga
Real Sociedad against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
U. Marrero
DefenderA. Munoz
K. Kita
A. Elustondo
A. Odriozola
MidfielderL. Sucic
P. Marin
I. Basurco
A. Zakharyan
O. Oskarsson
U. Sadiq
A. Barrenetxea
J. Musso
DefenderR. Le Normand
N. Molina
J. Gimenez
MidfielderJ. Diaz
C. Gallagher
J. Cardoso
A. Griezmann
A. Monserrate
ForwardT. Almada
G. Raspadori
I. Luque Sierra
Missing players
I. Ruperez Urtasun
MidfielderI. Zubeldia
Y. Herrera
J. Gorrotxategi
C. Lenglet
MidfielderN. Gonzalez
Most goals and assists
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
M. Oyarzabal
(15 Goals)
A. Sorloth
(13 Goals)
S. Gomez
(5 Assists)
G. Simeone
(6 Assists)
Real Sociedad - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Sociedad lost three of their four recent league matches, drawing the latest.
- Sociedad lost their last two home league games.
- Atletico won ten of their last 12 matches in all competitions, including three in a row.
- In the league, Atletico won eight of their last ten fixtures.
- Atletico won four of their last five league matches against Sociedad.
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Our Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Atletico have dominated this fixture lately, winning seven and drawing four of the last 11 La Liga games against Sociedad. Additionally, Sociedad ended 2025 with three defeats in their last four league games, drawing in the other. That included consecutive losses at this venue, and Atletico will hope to capitalise on that. The visitors travel here with eight wins from their last ten league fixtures, losing only twice.
Atletico have an edge in a fixture they have dominated lately, and our Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid prediction is Atletico Madrid wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Real Sociedad Atletico Madrid
| Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad wins | 4 | 4.1 | +2.5% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 4.02 | +20.0% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 1.91 | 1.93 | +1.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atletico Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 1.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 52.4% and is now 51.8% (-0.5%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
