Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Daniel Ngulu | in LaLiga Predictions
Real Madrid will be back to domestic action, hosting Rayo Vallecano in La Liga after another disappointing outing in Europe. This Madrid derby finds Real Madrid trailing league leaders Barcelona by a point while Rayo are a point above the bottom three. Read on for our prediction of this match.
Real are coming off a tough outing in Portugal, where their former manager Jose Mourinho, now with Benfica engineered a 4-2 defeat. In that game, Kylian Mbappe scored his seventh goal in four matches.
The loss meant Real Madrid finished ninth in the UCL league phase. In La Liga, things are better, Real with an opportunity to go top this weekend after winning five straight league games.
Rayo have been responsible for some of Real Madrid’s problems in recent meetings. They surely raise their standards when facing Los Blancos. A case in point was in their November 2025 meeting, when they played to a 0-0 draw.
Rayo will still be the underdogs in this fixture, which they have stopped Real from winning in five of the last seven meetings. Focusing on their own strengths, Rayo are coming off three straight defeats.
The most recent of them was at home to Osasuna on Saturday. A 3-1 defeat now means they’ve conceded eight times in their last three games and have no clean sheet in the last seven outings.
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Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.27 | 6.6 | 10 |
|
|
1.21 | 7 | 11.5 |
|
|
1.26 | 6.4 | 10 |
|
|
1.22 | 7 | 11 |
|
|
1.25 | 6.4 | 9.6 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano?
Our prediction for the Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano match is: Over 2.5 goals & BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 01/02/2026 between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 61.04% for a win of Real Madrid against Rayo Vallecano with odds of 1.3 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano is 12.39% with odds of 7 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 26.57% chance ⭐ for a win of Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid with odds of 11.5 at Melbet.
Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano Prediction and Best Odds:
| Real Madrid Rayo Vallecano Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 61.04% | 1.3 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.33% | 1.36 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 50.83% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Real Madrid/Real Madrid | 30.72% | 1.83 at Bet365 |
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Form
Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
86 | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | +42 |
|
8
|
50 | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | -3 |
Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
11 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
7 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
11 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
11 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
6 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
2 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
11 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
2 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
15 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
1 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
6 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
7 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
9 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
14 Dec 2024 - LaLiga
18 Feb 2024 - LaLiga
5 Nov 2023 - LaLiga
24 May 2023 - LaLiga
Real Madrid against Rayo Vallecano Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
F. Gonzalez
A. Lunin
DefenderF. Garcia
A. Carreras
D. Carvajal
D. Alaba
D. Ceballos
Rodrygo
G. Garcia
B. Diaz
D. Cardenas
DefenderL. Felipe
I. Balliu
A. Espino
O. Valentin
P. Diaz
F. Perez
ForwardS. Camello
Alemao
R. Nteka
C. Martin
O. Trejo
Missing players
A. Ruediger
T. Alexander-Arnold
F. Mendy
E. Militao
ForwardEndrick
U. Lopez
D. Mendez
Most goals and assists
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
K. Mbappe
(25 Goals)
J. de Frutos
(10 Goals)
A. Guler
(9 Assists)
A. Garcia
(5 Assists)
Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano Key Points
- Across Real Madrid’s latest 10 league games, only three had under 2.5 goals.
- Real Madrid have managed just three clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Three of Rayo’s last four away matches produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in four of Rayo’s last six matches.
- Real Madrid scored in all their latest 10 outings.
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Our Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction
Rayo have in the past few meetings, proven tough for Real Madrid, and they will want to keep up the same here. As they are in dire need of three points for their survival race, we can bank on the visitors to attack.
Real Madrid’s defensive weaknesses are well documented, and while they are favorites to win, we are not so keen on a home clean sheet. There is a high chance that this one too will be a high-scoring fixture. Our prediction for Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano is therefore Over 2.5 goals & BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Real Madrid Rayo Vallecano
| Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0% |
| Draw | 6 | 7 | +16.7% |
| Rayo Vallecano wins | 12.4 | 11.5 | -7.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have not changed since opening
- The probability of this result was 76.9% and is now 76.9% (0.0%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
