Europe - Champions League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Champions League Predictions
Record 15-time UEFA Champions League winners Real Madrid start their 2025-26 campaign with a home match against Marseille on matchday one. This match at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu between Los Blancos and Les Phoceens on Tuesday comes with our prediction of both teams scoring goals. With this being the second edition of the tournament with this new format, teams will have a lot on their plate planning their stay in the tournament and a push for a top-eight spot.
This will be manager Xabi Alonso's first game in Europe with Madrid, and he will hope to continue the magic start. Four wins out of four, although unconvincing in the manner of results, suggest they are ready to make their mark on the European scene.
Marseille have an extra day to prepare for this trip after a comfortable win in Ligue 1, but will that be enough? They have been impressive in the wins and could look to continue their scoring record in their first Champions League fixture since 2022-23. Is that enough to prop the visitors up against the favorites from Madrid? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Real Madrid v Marseille Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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1.33 | 5.5 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.3 | 5.5 | 8 |
|
|
1.35 | 5 | 7.5 |
|
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1.35 | 5.25 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.32 | 5.8 | 8 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Real Madrid and Marseille?
Our prediction for the Real Madrid vs Marseille match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/09/2025 between Real Madrid and Marseille in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 60.35% for a win of Real Madrid against Marseille with odds of 1.38 at Bwin.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Madrid vs Marseille is 14.77% with odds of 5.8 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 24.88% chance ⭐ for a win of Marseille vs Real Madrid with odds of 8.15 at 22bet.
Real Madrid vs Marseille Form
Real Madrid and Marseille Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
24 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
12 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
5 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
1 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
22 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
18 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
24 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
12 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
26 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
18 May 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sep 2025 - Ligue 1
31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
15 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sep 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
29 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2025 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
15 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
20 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
10 May 2025 - Ligue 1
Real Madrid - Marseille: Form Analysis
Real Madrid made light work of being a man down to defeat Real Sociedad 2-1 away from home on Saturday. That was the fourth win in a row for the hosts in La Liga, giving them the right momentum ahead of Alonso's European bow with the record champions.
Los Blancos have a strong record in this competition, although they lost to Arsenal in both legs of last year's quarter-final. Five wins out of the last seven home games in the Champions League give them a strong base.
Madrid won all four previous games against Marseille, all between 2003 and 2009.
Marseille will look to change that piece of history, as they come here after a 4-0 home win over Lorient on Friday. That continued the indifferent start to the season for the visitors, who have two wins and losses each in the campaign.
Roberto De Zerbi will be worried about his side's away form, having lost 1-0 in both their league trips this season. They would need to do better than that, as they aim for a better start in this campaign, starting in the Champions League after the 2022-23 season.
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Real Madrid vs Marseille last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
F. Mendy
A. Rudiger
MidfielderJ. Bellingham
E. Camavinga
ForwardEndrick
F. Medina
MidfielderG. Kondogbia
ForwardI. Paixao
Real Madrid & Marseille Squad Analysis
Madrid lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation for their last two matches after starting the season in 4-3-3 and 4-4-2 systems. This showed Alonso's versatility and ability to make alterations, but he can continue with the latest training to get momentum.
Antonio Rudiger is out for a couple of months and joins Jude Bellingham and Eduardo Camavinga, among others, on the injury list. One name looking to push his way through is Trent Alexander-Arnold, who has been alternating his duties with Dani Carvajal.
Kylian Mbappe has scored once in each of his last three matches for club and country.
De Zerbi's Marseille could be without Amine Gouiri after he was forced off with a head injury in the win over Lorient. CJ Egan-Riley will be back from suspension and will look for a starting role, just like Geronimo Rulli and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
The veteran forward has scored in his last four Champions League matches against Madrid, all coming in a Dortmund shirt, and will hope to rewind the clock. If he does, he could lead the 4-2-3-1 system with Mason Greenwood on the right wing. Crucial for Marseille could be Angel Gomes and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, who will be tasked with mastering the midfield exchanges.
Most goals and assists
Real Madrid
Marseille
K. Mbappe
(4 Goals)
P. Aubameyang
(2 Goals)
, 
M. Greenwood
(2 Goals)
B. Diaz
(1 Assists)
, 
V. Junior
(1 Assists)
, 
A. Guler
(1 Assists)
, 
F. Valverde
(1 Assists)
, 
D. Huijsen
(1 Assists)
,
K. Mbappe
(1 Assists)
M. Greenwood
(3 Assists)
Real Madrid - Marseille Key Points
- Seven of Madrid’s last nine Champions League fixtures produced goals from both teams.
- Madrid’s last eight home matches in this competition have seen both teams scored goals.
- Madrid scored 2+ goals in their last three competitive matches.
- Six of Marseille’s last nine competitive games have seen goals from both teams.
- In five of Marseille’s last eight European games, both teams scored goals.
- Marseille conceded in three of their four competitive matches this season.
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Our Real Madrid vs Marseille Prediction
Real Madrid won their four competitive matches of the season, three of those coming by a single-goal margin. This tells the story of a team that is grinding results and will be confident of a positive start as European action kicks off. Marseille won't be an easy team to roll over, especially as their recent results show they can be a stubborn team. Nine goals from two of their last three matches talk of their goal threat.
That could be the case here as well, and our Real Madrid vs Marseille prediction is both teams to score.
Real Madrid vs Marseille - Other Interesting Predictions
Mason Greenwood to score anytime
Mason Greenwood seems to have revived his career in Marseille, and the seasonal start has been impressive. Two goals and three assists in his last three matches suggest he could be up for an impactful performance in Madrid. Back him to find a goal here.
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Real Madrid vs Marseille match : Frequently asked questions
The Real Madrid vs Marseille UEFA Champions League second-leg match is set to take place at the famous Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid. This is a retractable-roof football stadium and has a capacity of 83,186, which is the second-largest seating capacity for a football venue in Spain. It has been the home venue of Real Madrid since its completion in 1947.
The Real Madrid vs Marseille UEFA Champions League match is set to be shown on TNT Sports 1 in the UK. Subscribers can access the game online on the Discovery+ app on their tablet or phone. In France, the match is set on Canal+ and M6.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our UEFA Champions League Livescore page!
Let's start with Real Madrid. They are going to face Kairat Almaty (away), Juventus (home), Liverpool (away), Olympiacos (away), Manchester City (home), Monaco (home), and Benfica (away).
Marseille's fixtures are the ones we shall look at now. The visitors will next face – in that order – Ajax (home), Sporting CP (away), Atalanta (home), Newcastle United (home), Union Saint-Gilloise (away), Liverpool (home), and Club Brugge (away).
This is the second season for the new format, as 36 teams start the League phase with four matches at home and four on the road. The top eight ranked teams from this phase will receive a bye to the round of 16. The teams ranked from 9th to 24th will play in the knockout phase play-offs. Among these, the teams from 9th to 16th are seeded, while the others are unseeded. Teams that are ranked from 25th to 36th will be eliminated from all eliminations, as no drop down to the Europa League is on offer for the teams.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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