Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Kennedy Kechula | in LaLiga Predictions
After two weeks without action, Rayo Vallecano returns with a home match against Atletico Madrid. For Rayo, being in the bottom three, this is a key match in their survival push, against third-placed Atletico. Read on to find our prediction.
In Rayo’s last match, they conceded a 100th-minute penalty against Real Madrid as they went on to lose 2-1. A crushing defeat it was, denying them the chance to rise out of the relegation zone, where they are a point shy of safety.
That loss was their 10th in the league and fourth straight overall. Los Franjirrojos will be looking to avoid a fourth straight league loss, a fate they last suffered four years ago.
Atletico Madrid have had an inconsistent campaign as far as La Liga is concerned. As such, they find themselves trailing league leaders Barcelona by 13 points.
They have repurposed their energies elsewhere, with Diego Simeone’s side posting huge wins in the Copa del Rey. Los Colchoneros are coming off a 4-0 win over Barcelona in the first leg of their cup semi-final.
Even as they target the Copa del Rey, they have one eye on finishing third in La Liga, under pressure from Villarreal. Last time out in the league, Atletico lost 1-0 at home to Real Betis.
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Rayo Vallecano v Atletico Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.6 | 3.75 | 1.83 |
|
|
4.54 | 3.48 | 1.83 |
|
|
4.54 | 3.54 | 1.81 |
|
|
4.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
|
|
4.3 | 3.45 | 1.84 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Rayo Vallecano and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid match is: Atletico Madrid wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 15/02/2026 between Rayo Vallecano and Atletico Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 17.48% for a win of Rayo Vallecano against Atletico Madrid with odds of 4.6 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid is 37.34% with odds of 3.8 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 45.18% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano with odds of 1.88 at 888Starz.
Rayo Vallecano - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Rayo Vallecano Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 45.18% | 1.88 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.08% | 2.03 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 50.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Atletico Madrid | 18.54% | 4.6 at LSbet |
Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid Form
Rayo Vallecano and Atletico Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
69 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | +18 |
|
8
|
50 | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | -3 |
Rayo Vallecano and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
11 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
6 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
11 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
2 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
15 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
1 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
6 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
5 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
31 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Feb 2026 - Copa del Rey
31 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
13 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
17 %
83 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
24 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
24 Apr 2025 - LaLiga
22 Sept 2024 - LaLiga
31 Jan 2024 - LaLiga
28 Aug 2023 - LaLiga
9 Apr 2023 - LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 5 - 1
Substitutes
Juanpe
DefenderA. Mumin
L. Felipe
I. Balliu
J. Vertrouwd
U. Lopez
P. Diaz
A. Garcia
O. Trejo
Alemao
R. Nteka
S. Camello
S. Esquivel
J. Musso
DefenderR. Le Normand
D. Hancko
M. Llorente
M. Pubill
MidfielderKoke
A. Griezmann
O. Vargas
G. Simeone
A. Lookman
J. Alvarez
Missing players
D. Cardenas
DefenderP. Chavarria
MidfielderP. Ciss
D. Mendez
B. Pablo
Most goals and assists
Rayo Vallecano
Atletico Madrid
J. de Frutos
(10 Goals)
A. Sorloth
(13 Goals)
A. Garcia
(5 Assists)
G. Simeone
(6 Assists)
Rayo Vallecano - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in 19 matches against Rayo Vallecano.
- Atletico Madrid won four of their last five visits to Rayo Vallecano.
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last eight away matches.
- Rayo are winless in 77% of their league matches this season.
- Rayo Vallecano are coming off four straight defeats.
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Our Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
This is a chance for Atletico Madrid to improve on their uninspiring record on the road this season. They have three wins in 11 away league matches, which puts a dent on their profile as a title chaser. The visitors, however, have an eight-game unbeaten run on the road to build on.
Additionally, they are undefeated against teams in the bottom half, having won nine times. That makes Rayo’s hopes for this game even slimmer, having last beat Atletico in 2013. Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano v Atletico Madrid is that Atletico Madrid wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Rayo Vallecano Atletico Madrid
| Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano wins | 4.7 | 4.6 | -2.1% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.8 | +7.0% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 1.84 | 1.88 | +2.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atletico Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 54.3% and is now 53.2% (-1.2%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
