Strasbourg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction & Betting Tips - Conference League
Europe - Conference League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Conference League Predictions
After a 2-0 loss away in the first leg of the 2025-26 UEFA Conference League quarter-finals, Strasbourg have all to play for when they host Mainz on Thursday. This match at Stade de la Meinau between ‘Le Racing’ and the ‘05ers’ comes with our prediction of less than 2.5 goals. The winner of this two-legged tie will go on to the semi-finals to play the victors of Rayo Vallecano vs AEK Athens quarter-finals.
Two goals within the first 20 minutes were enough to propel Mainz to a win in the first leg. Strasbourg have been a tough team to beat at home, remaining unbeaten in their last seven games, with four of those resulting in wins. Three of those have come by a two-goal margin, which is the minimum they need here to take the game deeper.
Mainz had their extremely impressive run of five consecutive wins end at the weekend in a loss in the Bundesliga. That should take nothing away from the Germans, who have surprised everyone with their deep run. Can they add more gloss and progress to the semi-finals? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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Strasbourg v 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.75 | 3.95 | 4.6 |
|
|
1.7 | 3.96 | 4.64 |
|
|
1.72 | 3.9 | 4.64 |
|
|
1.7 | 3.9 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.74 | 3.85 | 4.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Strasbourg and 1 Fsv Mainz 05?
Our prediction for the Strasbourg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/04/2026 between Strasbourg and 1 Fsv Mainz 05 in Conference League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.54% for a win of Strasbourg against 1 Fsv Mainz 05 with odds of 1.78 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Strasbourg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 is 35.07% with odds of 4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 29.39% chance ⭐ for a win of 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Strasbourg with odds of 4.8 at Tonybet.
Strasbourg - 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction and Best Odds:
| Strasbourg 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg wins | 35.54% | 1.78 at LSbet |
| Under 2.5 | 54.63% | 2.13 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 56.25% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Strasbourg | 17.06% | 4.8 at LSbet |
Strasbourg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Form
Strasbourg and 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
4 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Mar 2026 - Conference League
15 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Mar 2026 - Conference League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Mar 2026 - Conference League
15 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
3 Mar 2026 - French Cup
27 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
22 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Mar 2026 - Conference League
7 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Mar 2026 - Conference League
15 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
22 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Mar 2026 - Conference League
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Mar 2026 - Conference League
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
Strasbourg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
50 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
Strasbourg - 1 Fsv Mainz 05: Form Analysis
Strasbourg conceded twice within the first 20 minutes in the first leg to collapse to a 2-0 defeat. That was a rare loss for ‘Le Racing', who went ten games in all competitions without losing immediately prior to that loss (W5, D5).
The hosts have been in excellent form in this competition, winning five of their last seven Conference League games (D1, L1). That includes winning and drawing two games each at home, although all four saw both teams scoring goals.
Mainz haven’t conceded in their last four Conference League games.
The German visitors followed their first leg win with a 1-0 loss at home to Freiburg in the Bundesliga at the weekend. That was their first loss in their last ten competitive matches (W5, D4) that included five straight wins before the defeat.
In the Conference League, Mainz have three wins from their last four matches (D1), including two in a row. The 05ers haven’t been impressive on the road in this competition, though, as they have no wins from their last three away Conference League games (D2, L1).
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Strasbourg against 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Substitutes
K. Johnsson
G. Kerckaert
DefenderL. Hogsberg
Y. Becker
MidfielderG. Yassine
M. Oyedele
M. Amougou
S. Amo-Ameyaw
R. Luis
ForwardE. Emegha
D. Fofana
J. Bosey
L. Riess
R. Zentner
DefenderK. Potulski
S. Bell
A. Hanche-Olsen
A. Caci
W. Boving
D. Gleiber
N. Veratschnig
L. Maloney
N. Amiri
A. Sieb
Missing players
J. Mwanga
A. Anselmino
ForwardJ. Panichelli
M. Leitsch
ForwardB. Hollerbach
S. Katompa Mvumpa
K. Bos
Strasbourg & 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Squad Analysis
Strasbourg have no new injury concerns, which means Aaron Anselmino, Junior Mwanga, and Joaquin Panichelli remain their only injury concerns ahead of this leg.
Le Racing lined up in a 4-4-1-1 formation in the first leg, but they have usually used a 4-2-3-1 system. That could see Julio Enciso starting up front, but Martial Godo remains Strasbourg’s best attacking outlet.
Godo has four goals and three assists in the UECL competitions this season.
Mainz have a very long list of absentees, including Lee Jae-sung, who was the latest addition to that group. Maxim Dal, and Silas, among others, are out of this contest with injuries. Along with that group, Andreas Hanche-Olsen is also doubtful for the visitors.
It’s usually the 3-5-2 system that Mainz use, although they were lined up in an adventurous 3-1-4-2 formation at the weekend. That game saw the return of Nadiem Amiri from injury, with the winger already boasting four goals in the UECL this season.
Most goals and assists
Strasbourg
1 Fsv Mainz 05
M. Godo
(4 Goals)
N. Amiri
(2 Goals)
, 
S. Posch
(2 Goals)
M. Godo
(3 Assists)
, 
J. Enciso
(3 Assists)
, 
S. Nanasi
(3 Assists)
L. Jae-sung
(2 Assists)
,
P. Nebel
(2 Assists)
Strasbourg - 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Key Points
- Three of Strasbourg’s last five competitive games have seen under 2.5 goals.
- Strasbourg have conceded exactly once in their last four home Conference League matches.
- Mainz have conceded just three goals, the lowest in the Conference League group stage onwards, this season.
- Eight of Mainz’s last nine Conference League games have produced fewer than three goals.
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Our Strasbourg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Prediction
The first leg defeat puts the onus on Strasbourg to improve and win by at least the same margin to take the game deeper. That loss was Strasbourg’s first since early February, so the home fans will pin their hopes on a comeback. Mainz are safely tucked in the Bundesliga mid-table, which could see them put their entire focus on Europe.
Mainz’s strong defensive credentials in this tournament and the tight context of the tie are why our Strasbourg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 prediction is less than 2.5 goals.
Strasbourg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 Alternative Predictions
Strasbourg wins
Strasbourg head coach Gary O'Neil pointed out after the first-leg defeat that he saw enough in that match to know that they can win the second leg and qualify. While Strasbourg’s progress could depend on the margin of win, the French can lay claim to home comforts.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Strasbourg 1 Fsv Mainz 05
| Strasbourg vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg wins | 2 | 1.78 | -11.0% |
| Draw | 3.7 | 4 | +8.1% |
| 1 Fsv Mainz 05 wins | 3.4 | 4.8 | +41.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Strasbourg is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 11.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 50.0% and is now 56.2% (6.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
