PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Champions League Predictions
Tuesday's match between PSV Eindhoven and Atletico Madrid intensifies the top-eight battle in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League. This match in Eindhoven between the 15th-placed Peasants and the 12th-placed Rojiblancos comes with our prediction of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals. Both teams are in the play-off spots and can move into the top eight with a win, but the loser has the difficulty downside of being dragged out of the top 16 teams.
PSV have bounced back from a two-game winless start to this Champions League campaign with two wins from their last three fixtures. Those two wins included a 6-2 win here over Napoli and a stunning 4-1 victory over Liverpool on matchday five. Can they continue that form and upset another European giant?
Atletico come here looking to end a two-game losing run but have an unbeaten record against PSV historically. The challenge for the visitors is to overturn their poor away record in recent times, as well as in the Champions League. Can Atletico turn things around? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for PSV Eindhoven v Atletico Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.88 | 3.8 | 2.2 |
|
|
2.95 | 3.75 | 2.31 |
|
|
2.96 | 3.74 | 2.23 |
|
|
2.88 | 3.7 | 2.24 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.8 | 2.25 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between PSV Eindhoven and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid match is: BTTS and over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/12/2025 between PSV Eindhoven and Atletico Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 46.49% for a win of PSV Eindhoven against Atletico Madrid with odds of 3.1 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid is 15.1% with odds of 3.88 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 38.42% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven with odds of 2.35 at 888Starz.
PSV Eindhoven - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| PSV Eindhoven Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven wins | 46.49% | 3.1 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.39% | |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: PSV Eindhoven | 18.99% | 7.5 at Bet365 |
PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid Form
PSV Eindhoven and Atletico Madrid's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
12 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +3 |
|
21
|
8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +4 |
PSV Eindhoven and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
9 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
31 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
21 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
9 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
26 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
23 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
8 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
8 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
18 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
23 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
27 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
23 Nov 2016 - Champions League
13 Sept 2016 - Champions League
PSV Eindhoven - Atletico Madrid: Form Analysis
PSV won 6-2 at home against Napoli on matchday three and 4-1 against Liverpool away from home on matchday five. These two results were surrounded by 1-1 draws against Bayer Leverkusen and Olympiacos, both away from home.
The Dutch hosts are in scintillating form, staying unbeaten in 14 competitive matches (W11, D3) since losing 3-1 to Union St. Gilloise. That sequence included four consecutive wins at this venue, aggregating 16 goals.
PSV won seven of their last ten home competitive matches.
Atletico lost 3-2 to Liverpool and 4-0 to Arsenal, both away from home, on matchdays one and three. Other than that, they have won all three of their Champions League matches this season. They won 5-1 vs Eintracht Frankfurt, 3-1 vs Union St Gilloise, and 2-1 vs Inter, all coming at home.
Both their recent defeats came away from home for Atletico, and they will be away from their indifferent form on the road this season. Atletico have won only two of their ten away games this season in all competitions (D3, L5).
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PSV Eindhoven against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
N. Schiks
N. Olij
DefenderK. Sildillia
A. Nagalo
R. Flamingo
A. Obispo
N. Fernandez
E. Bajraktarevic
ForwardR. Pepi
D. Man
I. Perisic
S. Esquivel Gamez
J. Musso
DefenderD. Martinez Moreno
J. Bonar
R. Le Normand
C. Gallagher
T. Almada
J. Cardoso
A. Griezmann
J. Galan
ForwardC. Martin
G. Raspadori
Missing players
A. Plea
M. Boadu
R. van Bommel
J. Gimenez
MidfielderM. Llorente
A. Baena
PSV Eindhoven & Atletico Madrid Squad Analysis
PSV continues to miss their regular absentees, Alassane Plea and Ruben van Bommel, who also missed their weekend game against Heerenveen. Ivan Perisic is another likely absentee for the Dutch hosts.
The hosts lined up in a 4-3-3 formation against Heerenveen but could revert to a 4-4-2 system. That could mean Guus Til and Ismael Saibari leading the line. Til has 11 goals this season for PSV but has scored just one in the Champions League.
Couhaib Driouech scored a brace against Liverpool last matchday.
Atletico have a number of absentees to contend with, including Alex Baena, Jose Maria Gimenez, and Marcos Llorente. Robin Le Normand and Johnny Cardoso are also set to be out of contention.
The visitors used a 4-1-4-1 formation at the weekend but have generally used a 4-4-2 system. Even if they tend to shape up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, all eyes will be on Julian Alvarez, who will lead the line. Alvarez has ten goals in the season, including three in the Champions League.
Most goals and assists
PSV Eindhoven
Atletico Madrid
R. Pepi
(3 Goals)
, 
C. Driouech
(3 Goals)
J. Alvarez
(4 Goals)
G. Til
(2 Assists)
, 
Mauro Junior
(2 Assists)
,
C. Driouech
(2 Assists)
J. Alvarez
(2 Assists)
PSV Eindhoven - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Nine of PSV’s last ten home matches in all competitions produced over 2.5 goals.
- In 12 of PSV’s last 16 matches in all competitions, both teams scored goals.
- All five of PSV’s Champions League matches this season saw both teams score goals.
- Four of Atletico’s five Champions League matches this season saw both teams score and over 2.5 goals scored.
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Our PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Atletico lost to Barcelona and Athletic Club, but these two reverses were preceded by seven consecutive wins, so Atletico aren't yet in the difficult zone. The challenge for the Spaniards is to improve their away form, as both their defeats in the Champions League this season have come on the road. PSV have ten wins from their last 11 competitive matches, including five in a row, so the home fans will be hoping for a positive result.
This match could end up exciting fans with goals, and our PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid prediction is BTTS and over 2.5.
PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid - Other Interesting Predictions
PSV Eindhoven wins
PSV have never won against Atletico, but this could be their best chance. The Spaniards have lost their last two matches, both away from home. Their only two defeats in this season's Champions League have also come on the road. PSV come here with some impressive wins, including in the Champions League. They look good value to surprise their Spanish visitors.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis PSV Eindhoven Atletico Madrid
| PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven wins | 2.9 | 3.1 | +6.9% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.88 | +14.1% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 2.34 | 2.35 | +0.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- PSV Eindhoven is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 34.5% and is now 32.3% (-2.2%)
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With the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 season starts, bet365 offers free tickets for their users, including PSV Eindhoven vs. Atletico Madrid match!
To be in with a chance of winning tickets to any of the UEFA Champions League matchdays throughout the 2025/26 season, all fans must do is enter into the free-to-enter weekly ticket draws on the bet365 website or app*.
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PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid - FAQs
The PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League match is set to be shown on TNT Sports 5 in the UK. In the Netherlands, the match is set to be shown on Ziggo Sport. In Spain, the match will be broadcast by Telefonica.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our UEFA Champions League Livescore page!
PSV seem to reserve their best for when playing Spanish sides, as they are unbeaten in their last four UEFA competitive games against La Liga teams (W3, D1). In fact, they have lost only once in their last 13 European group stage/league phase matches at home (W8, D4), which adds weight to their claims of full points here.
Despite such impressive numbers, it's Atletico who hold an edge in head-to-head record. The Spanish visitors are unbeaten in their last six UEFA matches between these teams (W4, D2) and have conceded just once in this sequence.
Atletico have also excelled against Dutch clubs in general, remaining unbeaten in their last eight UEFA games against such sides (W6, D2).
Let's start with PSV Eindhoven. They will next face – in that order – Newcastle United (away) and Bayern Munich (home).
Atletico Madrid will play Galatasaray (away) and Bodo/Glimt (home).
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
