PSG vs Bayern Munich Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
PSG continue their bid to become the first club since 2018 to retain the UCL title. They have a tough task in the semi-finals as they take on Bayern Munich. Can Les Parisians get a lead to take to Germany for the second leg? Read our match prediction below.
Real Madrid were the last club to win the Champions League two seasons in a row. The Red and Blues are top of Ligue 1 and have been in good form at home in this season's UCL. As you will read in the form section of this preview, they have already been beaten at home by Bayern this season. Now they bid for revenge and qualify for a final against either Arsenal or Atletico Madrid.
Their German opponents last won the UCL in 2020. That was the sixth time the Bavarians have lifted the trophy. The German Bundesliga title has already been clinched and Bayern continue to win games and are scoring for fun. Can they reach a 12th Champions League final?
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PSG v Bayern Munich Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.49 | 3.9 | 2.6 |
|
|
2.3 | 4 | 2.71 |
|
|
2.49 | 3.76 | 2.6 |
|
|
2.45 | 4 | 2.6 |
|
|
2.38 | 3.9 | 2.64 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between PSG and Bayern Munich?
Our prediction for the PSG vs Bayern Munich match is: BTTS and more than 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 28/04/2026 between PSG and Bayern Munich in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35% for a win of PSG against Bayern Munich with odds of 2.55 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between PSG vs Bayern Munich is 10.07% with odds of 4 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 54.93% chance ⭐ for a win of Bayern Munich vs PSG with odds of 2.71 at Melbet.
PSG - Bayern Munich Prediction and Best Odds:
| PSG Bayern Munich Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 54.93% | 2.71 at Melbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.49% | |
| Both Team To Score | 56.67% | |
| Half-time : PSG / Full-time : Bayern Munich | 22.79% | 23 at LSbet |
PSG vs Bayern Munich Form
PSG and Bayern Munich Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
3 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
3 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
6 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
21 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
28 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Apr 2026 - DFB Pokal
19 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Apr 2026 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
21 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
6 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Apr 2026 - DFB Pokal
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
PSG vs Bayern Munich Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
0 %
83 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
5 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
26 Nov 2024 - Champions League
8 Mar 2023 - Champions League
14 Feb 2023 - Champions League
13 Apr 2021 - Champions League
PSG - Bayern Munich: Form Analysis
PSG have won five of their last six UCL matches. The other was a 2-2 home draw with Monaco in the knockout play-off round but since then they have won four in a row against English Premier League clubs Chelsea and Liverpool.
Les Parisians have scored 17 goals in the knockout stages with six goals conceded. In the league phase, the reigning UCL champions only finished 11th in the table with 14 points, seven adrift of Bayern who finished second behind Arsenal.
It was in the league phase that these two clubs last met. PSG will want to do better on Tuesday than the 2-1 defeat they suffered. Their record against Bayern is not good. PSG have lost their last five UCL matches against Bayern but did beat them in last year's World Club Cup.
They lead Ligue 1 by six points and beat Angers 3-0 in their most recent match.
Bayern are in top form.
Bayern Munich have only been beaten by Arsenal in this season's Champions League. Of their 12 matches played, the other 11 have been won. In the knockout stages, they have beaten Atalanta and Real Madrid with 16 goals being scored and six conceded.
They have won their last nine matches and their last five away fixtures have also all been won with 16 goals scored. The weekend saw them win 4-3 at Mainz to extend their unbeaten away run to 16 matches.
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PSG against Bayern Munich Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
R. Marin
L. Chevalier
DefenderI. Zabarnyi
Beraldo
L. Hernandez
L. Kang-in
F. Ruiz
S. Mayulu
D. Fernandez
ForwardG. Ramos
B. Barcola
I. Mbaye
J. Urbig
S. Ulreich
DefenderH. Ito
K. Min-jae
F. Pavic
D. Ofli
MidfielderL. Goretzka
K. Laimer
N. Jackson
Missing players
Q. Ndjantou
R. Guerreiro
MidfielderT. Bischof
L. Karl
ForwardS. Gnabry
PSG & Bayern Munich Squad Analysis
PSG will be hoping that Nuno Mendes and Desire Doue will be able to feature in this game. Both suffered injuries in the second leg of their UCL quarter-final at Liverpool. They were in the squad for their weekend victory at Angers.
There is also an injury doubt over midfielder Vitinha who sustained a heel injury in their recent home loss to Lyon. He has returned to training but by himself. Better news for the defending champions is the return to fitness of Fabian Ruiz who had been out for two months.
PSG will need to be so careful in this first leg as they try to secure a lead to take to Munich. They will know only too well what an attacking force their opponents are and keeping it tight at the back is not going to be an easy task.
Bayern just cannot stop scoring.
Bayern Munich have already scored 18 away goals in this season's UCL. They just keep scoring and hit another four at the weekend away at Mainz. They will be without Serge Gnabry and Tom Bischof for this match. Harry Kane will be attempting to score for the sixth consecutive UCL match.
Lennart Karl has been a revelation this season and he may make his return from a torn thigh muscle on Tuesday. Suspended for the match is their coach Vincent Komany after three yellow cards.
Most goals and assists
PSG
Bayern Munich
K. Kvaratskhelia
(10 Goals)
H. Kane
(14 Goals)
K. Kvaratskhelia
(7 Assists)
M. Olise
(5 Assists)
PSG - Bayern Munich Key Points
- Ten of Bayern Munich's last 12 UCL matches have seen both teams score and more than 2.5 goals in the game.
- That stat has come up in eight of PSG's last 14 Champions League games.
- The two clubs met in the league phase and Bayern won the game 2-1.
- Both teams have scored with more than 2.5 goals in the game in five of Bayern's last seven matches.
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Our PSG vs Bayern Munich Prediction
PSG waited so long to win the Champions League and the Parisians do not want to let go of the trophy. They struggled at times in the league phase but have been impressive in the knockout stages with wins over Monaco, Chelsea and Liverpool.
They face their toughest task to date with this two-legged semi-final against Bayern Munich. They have already been beaten at home by them in the league phase. Goals look guaranteed and our main PSG v Bayern Munich prediction is BTTS and more than 2.5.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Alternative Predictions
Bayern Munich wins
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis PSG Bayern Munich
| PSG vs Bayern Munich | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG wins | 2.36 | 2.55 | +8.1% |
| Draw | 4.16 | 4 | -3.8% |
| Bayern Munich wins | 2.85 | 2.71 | -4.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Bayern Munich is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 4.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 35.1% and is now 36.9% (1.8%)
PSG vs Bayern Munich - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
