Portsmouth vs Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship
England - Championship
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by Steve Ashfield | in Championship Predictions
Both of these clubs were beaten in midweek and need to get back into winning ways. Portsmouth begin this set of Championship fixtures in 19th place and welcome eighth-placed Derby to Fratton Park. Can Pompey win? Read our match prediction below.
Portsmouth were beaten 2-1 at Swansea in midweek and that made it four league games without a victory with only a point earned. They remain in a relegation battle and after that loss were only two points clear of the bottom three.
Pompey will have two games in hand on their relegation rivals by the time this match gets underway. form had been strong this season with six league wins but the last three have all been lost with one win in five.
Derby County's promotion play-off hopes were damaged when the Rams lost 1-0 at in-form Millwall. They are six points behind the final promotion play-off position with ten games to go.
Three of their last five games in the Championship have ended in defeat. On the road, County have won eight away league games this season but the last three have all ended in defeat and they failed to score in two of those matches.
We tip under 2.5 goals to be scored in this match.
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Portsmouth v Derby County Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.15 | 3.25 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.28 | 3.38 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.22 | 3.54 |
|
|
2.05 | 3.25 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Portsmouth and Derby County?
Our prediction for the Portsmouth vs Derby County match is: under 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/03/2026 between Portsmouth and Derby County in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 30.09% for a win of Portsmouth against Derby County with odds of 2.32 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Portsmouth vs Derby County is 20.59% with odds of 3.3 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 49.33% chance ⭐ for a win of Derby County vs Portsmouth with odds of 3.54 at Betwinner.
Portsmouth - Derby County Prediction and Best Odds:
| Portsmouth Derby County Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Derby County wins | 49.33% | 3.54 at Betwinner |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 2.2 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score: No | 50.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Derby County | 22.24% | 7.75 at LSbet |
Portsmouth vs Derby County Form
Portsmouth and Derby County's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
69 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | +8 |
|
18
|
55 | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | -15 |
Portsmouth and Derby County Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
24 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
17 Feb 2026 - Championship
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
14 Feb 2026 - Championship
31 Jan 2026 - Championship
25 Jan 2026 - Championship
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
24 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
17 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Jan 2026 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
24 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
14 Feb 2026 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
14 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
23 Jan 2026 - Championship
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
24 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
30 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
Portsmouth vs Derby County Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
80 %
20 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
12 Apr 2025 - Championship
13 Dec 2024 - Championship
2 Apr 2024 - League One
18 Nov 2022 - League One
Portsmouth against Derby County Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Bursik
DefenderC. Shaughnessy
M. Dia
J. Williams
MidfielderL. Le Roux
A. Segecic
J. Swift
M. Kirk
C. Bishop
J. Thompson
DefenderR. Canoville
I. Gordon
C. Forsyth
O. Fraulo
D. Ozoh
C. Allen
ForwardJ. Banel
C. Morris
Missing players
M. Kosznovszky
ForwardF. Umeh Chibueze
Most goals and assists
Portsmouth
Derby County
A. Segecic
(10 Goals)
C. Morris
(12 Goals)
J. Murphy
(6 Assists)
J. Ward
(9 Assists)
Portsmouth - Derby County Key Points
- Four of the last seven games between these two clubs have seen under 2.5 goals scored.
- Under 2.5 goals have been scored in three of Portsmouth's last five home league fixtures.
- Two of Derby's last three away league games have seen under 2.5 goals scored.
- Derby have failed to score in two of their last three away league games. Pompey have just one goal in their last three at home.
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Our Portsmouth vs Derby County Prediction
Three points would give either club a massive boost here but for different reasons.. Portsmouth still have major relegation worries and will be keeping a close eye on the weekend results. Home form is a major worry at present for Pompey.
Derby were a strong side on their travels until recently. They come into this game looking to avoid a fourth successive away league defeat. Both sides are struggling up front and our Portsmouth v Derby County prediction is under 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Portsmouth Derby County
| Portsmouth vs Derby County | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth wins | 2.25 | 2.32 | +3.1% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0% |
| Derby County wins | 3.45 | 3.54 | +2.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Derby County is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 29.0% and is now 28.2% (-0.7%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Portsmouth vs. Derby County game
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
