Porto vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction & Betting Tips - Taca de Portugal
Portugal - Taca de Portugal
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Kennedy Kechula | in Football Predictions
FC Porto will be at home aiming to overturn a slim deficit against Sporting Lisbon in the return leg of their Taca de Portugal semi-final. Staging this match at Estadio do Dragao, Porto trail 1-0 from the first leg match played on March 3rd. This encounter has already been branded the final before the real final, as the winner here meets lower-ranked AD Fafe or Torrerense. Read on for our prediction below.
Porto, 20-time winners of this cup, have also dominated it the last five years, winning the trophy in four of those. They edged another Lisbon side, Benfica, 1-0 in the quarter-finals. Like Sporting last season, the hosts are looking to win the cup and league double.
Sporting, 18-time winners, will look to defend this cup successfully, as their league campaign looks to be slipping away. Sporting’s last three matches at Dragao ended in draws, and another such outcome will be just enough. They, however, lost at Porto the last time they played there in this competition.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Porto v Sporting Lisbon Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.29 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
|
|
2.27 | 3.05 | 3.35 |
|
|
2.27 | 3.05 | 3.35 |
|
|
2.2 | 3 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.26 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Porto and Sporting Lisbon?
Our prediction for the Porto vs Sporting Lisbon match is: draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/04/2026 between Porto and Sporting Lisbon in Taca de Portugal :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.53% for a win of Porto against Sporting Lisbon with odds of 2.29 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Porto vs Sporting Lisbon is 30.2% with odds of 3.3 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.27% chance ⭐ for a win of Sporting Lisbon vs Porto with odds of 4.15 at Shangrila.
Porto - Sporting Lisbon Prediction and Best Odds:
| Porto Sporting Lisbon Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Porto wins | 42.53% | 2.29 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 2.1 at LSbet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.92% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Porto | 19.19% | 5.5 at LSbet |
Porto vs Sporting Lisbon Form
Porto and Sporting Lisbon Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
12 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
4 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
4 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
15 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
27 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
12 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
8 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
3 Mar 2026 - Taca de Portugal
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
7 Apr 2026 - Champions League
3 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
7 Apr 2026 - Champions League
3 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
3 Mar 2026 - Taca de Portugal
27 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
Porto vs Sporting Lisbon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
3 Mar 2026 - Taca de Portugal
9 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
30 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
7 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
7 Jan 2025 - Portugal League Cup
31 Aug 2024 - Liga Portugal
Porto - Sporting Lisbon: Form Analysis
FC Porto stretched away in the Primeira Liga, with a 2-0 win over Tondela after Sporting suffered a 1-0 loss to Benfica. That didn’t just give them a commanding seven-point lead; it also confirmed Porto’s 20th win in 25 home matches this season.
In that period, Porto drew four times and lost once. The Dragons saw off Benfica in the last round, winning 1-0, before falling to Sporting in the semis first leg by the same scoreline. Porto recently saw their campaign in Europe ended by Nottingham Forest and will be keen to see that they progress in this other competition.
These two sides have won a combined 38 Taca de Portugal titles.
Sporting do not just have the first leg lead to defend; they are also the current holders of this cup. With the league seeming gone, the Lions will put a lot more effort here. They are coming from a 2-1 loss to Benfica, a result that saw them drop to third.
It also condemned them to a run of three winless matches across the last four. Away from home, Sporting are also unbeaten in the last three matches. When playing away at FC Porto, Sporting failed to win in their last 13 matches.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Porto vs Sporting Lisbon last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
C. Ramos
DefenderD. Prpic
F. Moura
MidfielderA. Varela
R. Mora
S. Fofana
B. Sainz
T. Moffi
Pepe
J. Virginia
DefenderZ. Debast
R. Mangas
G. Vagiannidis
MidfielderL. Guilherme
G. Kochorashvili
P. Goncalves
D. Braganca
R. Nel
Missing players
N. Santos
F. Ioannidis
Porto & Sporting Lisbon Squad Analysis
Porto’s push to level this tie may be slowed down by the absence of a few key players. Their win over Tondela came at a cost, with Zaidu Sanusi managing just 62 minutes. He could be ruled out of this, forcing a reorganization in defence to push Jakub Kiwior left.
That would leave veterans Thiago Silva and Jan Bednarek to man the central defence. As Martim Fernandes is unavailable, Alberto Costa will be returning for the team in right back. On the attacking front, this match comes too soon for Samu Amorodion and Luuk de Jong.
Luis Suárez will be a man under scrutiny, having failed to score in his last six games.
At Sporting, Ivan Fresneda is still unavailable, now for the third game running, as he nurses a muscle injury initially termed minor. He will not be the only one out of this game; the visitors have Fotis Ioannidis, Luis Guilherme, and Nuno Santo all listed as absentees for the clash.
A sizeable focus in this game will be on Luis Suarez, the scorer in the first leg. The Colombian will be looking to rise to the occasion here, as he missed a penalty against Benfica last time out with the team going on to lose.
Porto - Sporting Lisbon Key Points
- Five times in the last nine meetings, these sides drew.
- FC Porto drew twice in their last three home matches.
- In their last five outings, Porto are winless in three, drawing twice.
- Sporting are winless in half of their last 10 away games, drawing four.
- Sporting’s last four games as the away team against Porto ended in draws at 90 minutes.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Porto vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction
Sporting have managed just one win in their last four outings. They will be happy to end this demanding run of matches that started with Arsenal at home. All the visitors have to do is hold off Porto, and a draw will be enough.
Their last four matches designated for the visitors against Porto ended in draws at regular time. Five of the last nine meetings between the two also produced draws. Meanwhile, two of Porto’s last three home games ended in draws. Our prediction for Porto v Sporting Lisbon is a draw.
Porto vs Sporting Lisbon Alternative Predictions
BTTS
FC Porto have recorded just one clean sheet in their last five matches and failed to score once in the same five games. Three saw both teams score, and BTTS has also landed in six of these teams’ last 10 meetings. We can therefore back both teams to score as our second bet.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Porto Sporting Lisbon
| Porto vs Sporting Lisbon | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porto wins | 2.03 | 2.29 | +12.8% |
| Draw | 3.1 | 3.3 | +6.5% |
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 4.1 | 4.15 | +1.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Porto is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 12.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 49.3% and is now 43.7% (-5.6%)
Porto vs Sporting Lisbon - FAQs
FC Porto and Sporting Lisbon will face off on Wednesday, 22 April.
FC Porto v Sporting Lisbon will be staged at Estadio do Dragao.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
