Porto vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction & Betting Tips - Liga Portugal
Portugal - Liga Portugal
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Liga Portugal Predictions
With only four points separating Porto and Sporting Lisbon at the top, we may be in for the game of the season in Round 21. Dragões (Dragons) took the first game with a narrow 2-1 win. The question now is whether they can do the double over Leões (Lions) for the first time since 2023. Let’s get into this match prediction.
And so, Porto’s invincible streak this season finally came to an end last weekend with a surprising 2-1 defeat to Casa Pia. As it stands, the Dragon's nine-point lead from a few weeks ago has now been slashed to just four. If they lose to the Lions on Monday, we're looking at a one-point gap that'll blow the league race wide open.
Still, besides winning their first meeting this season, Porto should remain confident after 11 of its last 12 league games. In fact, the latest loss was to a 10-man Porto team for the last ten minutes plus seven minutes of extra time.
The only problem is that Sporting is also in impeccable form. The reigning champions are on a six-game winning streak of their own and have only tasted defeat once in the last 12 games. See key betting stats below.
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Porto v Sporting Lisbon Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.48 | 3.15 | 2.95 |
|
|
2.58 | 3.13 | 2.9 |
|
|
2.51 | 3.14 | 2.98 |
|
|
2.5 | 3.1 | 2.82 |
|
|
2.52 | 3.05 | 2.86 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Porto and Sporting Lisbon?
Our prediction for the Porto vs Sporting Lisbon match is: Both Teams To Score - Yes.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/02/2026 between Porto and Sporting Lisbon in Liga Portugal :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48.49% for a win of Porto against Sporting Lisbon with odds of 2.58 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Porto vs Sporting Lisbon is 14.8% with odds of 3.25 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.71% chance ⭐ for a win of Sporting Lisbon vs Porto with odds of 3 at LSbet.
Porto - Sporting Lisbon Prediction and Best Odds:
| Porto Sporting Lisbon Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Porto wins | 48.49% | 2.58 at Melbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.83% | 2.12 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score | 74.17% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Porto/Porto | 17.46% | 4 at Bet365 |
Porto vs Sporting Lisbon Form
Porto and Sporting Lisbon's standings in the Liga Portugal
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
88 | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | +48 |
|
2
|
82 | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | +65 |
Porto and Sporting Lisbon Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
26 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Jan 2026 - Taca de Portugal
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
26 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Jan 2026 - Taca de Portugal
29 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
18 Dec 2025 - Taca de Portugal
15 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
4 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
7 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Feb 2026 - Taca de Portugal
1 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Feb 2026 - Taca de Portugal
1 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
6 Jan 2026 - Portugal League Cup
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
2 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
23 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
18 Dec 2025 - Taca de Portugal
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
Porto vs Sporting Lisbon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
17 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
30 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
7 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
7 Jan 2025 - Portugal League Cup
31 Aug 2024 - Liga Portugal
3 Aug 2024 - Portugal Super Cup
26 May 2024 - Taca de Portugal
Porto against Sporting Lisbon Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
C. Ramos
DefenderT. Silva
F. Moura
O. Pietuszewski
R. Mora
S. Fofana
P. Rosario
ForwardD. Gul
T. Moffi
J. Virginia
DefenderG. Vagiannidis
Quaresma
R. Mangas
MidfielderL. Guilherme
J. Simoes
D. Braganca
S. Faye
R. Nel
Missing players
L. De Jong
W. Gomes
Most goals and assists
Porto
Sporting Lisbon
S. Aghehowa
(13 Goals)
L. Suarez
(28 Goals)
G. Veiga
(8 Assists)
F. Trincao
(11 Assists)
Porto - Sporting Lisbon Key Points
- Both teams scored in their earlier meeting this season, and have done so in three of their last four clashes.
- Sporting CP has scored the most goals this season (54), netting 2.7 per game.
- Porto has scored 41 goals this season (4th-most), netting 2.07 per game.
- Sporting has created 80 big chances this season (the most), averaging four created per game.
- Sporting CP has scored the joint-most away goals (22) this season.
- Both teams have scored in Sporting’s last five away games.
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Our Porto vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction
Sporting CP have a tangible chance to cut the gap to one point, boosting their title defence chances. So don't expect the Lions to go for anything less than all three points on Monday. And as such, you can expect Porto to respond or force an early goal to control the tempo of the game with the league title on the line.
Incentives aside, the stats also align with both teams boasting the best offence and chance creation quality despite their rock-solid defences. Hence, our Porto vs Sporting Lisbon prediction is Both Teams To Score - Yes.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Porto Sporting Lisbon
| Porto vs Sporting Lisbon | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porto wins | 2.34 | 2.58 | +10.3% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.25 | -4.4% |
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 3.01 | 3 | -0.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Porto is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 10.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 42.7% and is now 38.8% (-4.0%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
