Pablo Carreño-Busta vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Dubai Open

Prediction published on 23/02/2026, 08:00  by Steve Ashfield | Modified on 24/02/2026 at 06:30 in Tennis Predictions

It's a change of opponent for unseeded Denis Shapovalov in round one of the Dubai Tennis Championships. Initially drawn to face Jakub Mensik, round one of this outdoor hard court tournament sees him take on qualifier Pablo Carreno Busta. Time for our match prediction.

Round two will see the winner up against either eighth-seed Jiri Lehecka or unseeded Arthur Fils.

Denis Shapovalov reached the last four in Dallas in his most recent tournament. A good performance and he only lost to top-ten ranked Ben Shelton in a third set decider. The Canadian will want to build on that performance in Dubai. Twice he has been a semi-finalist in this ATP 500 tournament.

Shapovalov is 39th and that is 68 places above his opponent. However, the Spaniard has won five of their seven previous meetings and three out of four on this surface. This is their first match since 2022 and four of their meetings were played in the 2010s.

Busta has won seven of his 13 matches this year. He had to play two qualifying matches to reach this main draw. His final qualifier went to three sets against Luca Nardi with two tie-breaks played.

In six previous tournaments this year, Busta has only once made it past round one.

We tip more than 20.5 games here.