Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
We’re off to Tyneside for a top-half tussle on Sunday afternoon, when Newcastle United play host to Aston Villa at St. James’ Park on Matchday 23 in the Premier League. The Magpies are eighth in the league standings, while the Villans are in third place after 22 games. Check out our match prediction below!
After an extremely disapointing performance against relegation favourites Wolves last weekend, Newcastle United bounced back with a much-improved showing against PSV to secure their UCL knockout round qualification. Eddie Howe’s side will be looking to follow up here, and a win in this match could see them end the weekend as high as fourth place.
Aston Villa have also been flying in Europe this season and are guaranteed to finish the League Phase of the Europa League in those coveted top eight positions. They trail leaders Arsenal by seven points in the EPL but are level with the second-placed Citizens coming into this weekend’s fixtures. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Newcastle v Aston Villa Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.19 | 3.65 | 3.35 |
|
|
2.21 | 3.56 | 3.13 |
|
|
2.21 | 3.56 | 3.13 |
|
|
2.15 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.45 | 3.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Newcastle and Aston Villa?
Our prediction for the Newcastle vs Aston Villa match is: Morgan Rogers over 0.5 shots on target.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 25/01/2026 between Newcastle and Aston Villa in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 38.47% for a win of Newcastle against Aston Villa with odds of 2.27 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Newcastle vs Aston Villa is 24.03% with odds of 3.65 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 37.51% chance ⭐ for a win of Aston Villa vs Newcastle with odds of 3.38 at 888Starz.
Newcastle - Aston Villa Prediction and Best Odds:
| Newcastle Aston Villa Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 38.47% | 2.27 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.53% | 1.8 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 57.5% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Newcastle | 16.13% | 6 at Bet365 |
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Form
Newcastle and Aston Villa's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
65 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | +7 |
|
12
|
49 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | -2 |
Newcastle and Aston Villa Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
26 Dec 2025 - Premier League
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
29 Nov 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Dec 2025 - Premier League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
27 Nov 2025 - Europa League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
17 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
19 Apr 2025 - Premier League
26 Dec 2024 - Premier League
30 Jan 2024 - Premier League
12 Aug 2023 - Premier League
15 Apr 2023 - Premier League
Newcastle - Aston Villa: Form Analysis
Perhaps a little guilty of having one eye on their Champions League fixture in midweek, Newcastle United were held to an underwhelming goalless draw at Molineux last weekend.
That result ended their three-match win streak in the top flight and marked the first time that the Magpies had failed to find the back of the net in the EPL since mid-December away to Sunderland.
At home, though, the Toons are unbeaten in their last eight matches (W6 D2) and scored two or more goals in each match during this period. However, they have also conceded 15 at St. James’ Park this term, the most of the top 14 teams in the league standings.
Only Liverpool and Arsenal have taken three points away from St. James’ Park this season!
Meanwhile, Aston Villa missed a golden opportunity to move above Man City into second place in the league standings last weekend, when they suffered a rare loss at Villa Park to Everton.
Notably, that was the second league game in succession that the Lions failed to find the back of the net. They recorded 33 shots without success in those matches, a significant dip after scoring 24 goals in their 10 preceding games with an 18.9% conversion.
Still, the visitors will be confident in their chances of taking something from this match, having only lost one of their last six away games in this competition (W4 D1), which was at the Emirates Stadium.
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Newcastle against Aston Villa Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
A. Ramsdale
DefenderA. Murphy
D. Burn
L. Shahar
MidfielderJ. Willock
J. Ramsey
N. Woltemade
A. Elanga
W. Osula
M. Bizot
DefenderL. Digne
V. Lindelof
T. Mings
G. Hemmings
L. Bogarde
H. Elliott
ForwardL. Bailey
E. Guessand
Missing players
F. Schar
MidfielderJ. Murphy
B. Guimaraes
J. McGinn
B. Kamara
ForwardAlysson
Newcastle & Aston Villa Squad Analysis
Harvey Barnes is having his best season in a Newcastle jersey, now on 12 goals and two assists across all competitions, while he has also netted three times in his last three home games ahead of this one.
Yoanne Wissa marked his first UCL start with a goal in midweek, and after a slow start to life on Tyneside, he is starting to show why the Magpies spent £55m to secure his services last summer.
Bruno Guimaraes twisted an ankle in midweek and is a doubt, which could be a huge blow for Eddie Howe. Fabian Schar, Jacob Murphy, Tino Livramento, Jamaal Lascelles and Emil Krafth are sidelined.
However, Dan Burn could return to the squad from injury this weekend!
Just a week after Boubacar Kamara’s season came to an end due to a knee injury, Unai Emery’s side suffered another massive blow, with John McGinn picking up a knock against Everton.
First-choice shot-stopper Emiliano Martinez missed the trip to Turkey in midweek with a calf strain, while Donyell Malen has now completed his move to Roma on loan until the end of the season.
As a result, the Villans have recalled Jamaican international Leon Bailey from his loan, while Manchester United loanee Jadon Sancho could play a bigger role for the club in the coming weeks.
Most goals and assists
Newcastle
Aston Villa
B. Guimaraes
(9 Goals)
O. Watkins
(16 Goals)
B. Guimaraes
(5 Assists)
L. Digne
(6 Assists)
,
M. Rogers
(6 Assists)
Newcastle - Aston Villa Key Points
- Morgan Rogers is averaging 2.11 shots per game this season.
- Morgan Rogers has recorded 11 shots on target in his last 10 league games.
- Morgan Rogers is Aston Villa’s top scorer in the league this season.
- Newcastle United have only kept one clean sheet in their last seven home league matches.
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Our Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction
Both these sides are coming into this match following disappointing performances on MD22, and they will be looking for better here, as three points in this fixture could have a major impact on their league position by the end of this weekend.
There is a case to be made for both teams in this one, so we’re steering clear of the outright win/loss market. However, if the Villans are to cause the home side problems, we expect Morgan Rogers to be at the centre of the action. Our Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction is Morgan Rogers over 0.5 shots on target.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Alternative Predictions
Both teams to score
Six of Newcastle United’s last seven home league games have ended with both teams scoring, while both teams have found the back of the net in five of Aston Villa’s last six away league matches.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Newcastle Aston Villa
| Newcastle vs Aston Villa | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 2.17 | 2.27 | +4.6% |
| Draw | 3.86 | 3.65 | -5.4% |
| Aston Villa wins | 3.4 | 3.38 | -0.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Newcastle is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 4.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 46.1% and is now 44.1% (-2.0%)
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Newcastle vs Aston Villa - FAQs
The Premier League match between Newcastle and Aston Villa will take place on January 25 at 14:00 GMT.
The Premier League match between Newcastle and Aston Villa will be played at St. James’ Park in Newcastle.
The Premier League match between Newcastle and Aston Villa will be broadcast live on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
