Napoli vs Lecce Prediction & Betting Tips - Serie A
Italy - Serie A
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Serie A Predictions
Napoli’s title defence in Serie A will next pit them against Lecce, a team battling for survival. These two sides head out on opposite ends in the standings; hosts Napoli are third and Lecce is 16th. Below is our prediction for the match.
Napoli aren’t favorites to retain their Serie A title after a tough defence that has seen them fail to win 11 of their 28 games. The champions added three points to their bag last time out with a 2-1 win against Torino.
That was their 17th victory of the season, extending their unbeaten run at home in the league to 13 games. Partenopei have also beaten Lecce in each of their last three meetings.
Lecce’s last win against Napoli dates back to 2020. They are in a seven-game winless run in this fixture, having lost five times. However, a slight improvement in their recent outings will build a level of confidence for the side.
Across their last five matches, Lecce won three. The most recent one was at home to Cremonese, which ended 2-1. Seven defeats away from home, however, isn’t a record they will be very proud to parade.
Salentini are among the poorest-performing away teams in Serie A, having failed to win 10 of their 13.
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Napoli v Lecce Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.39 | 4.7 | 9.4 |
|
|
1.37 | 4.58 | 9.7 |
|
|
1.35 | 4.64 | 10 |
|
|
1.36 | 4.5 | 9 |
|
|
1.35 | 4.5 | 9.4 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Napoli and Lecce?
Our prediction for the Napoli vs Lecce match is: Napoli to win and over 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/03/2026 between Napoli and Lecce in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 62.15% for a win of Napoli against Lecce with odds of 1.42 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Napoli vs Lecce is 21.02% with odds of 4.82 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 16.83% chance ⭐ for a win of Lecce vs Napoli with odds of 11 at LSbet.
Napoli - Lecce Prediction and Best Odds:
| Napoli Lecce Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli wins | 62.15% | 1.42 at Shangrila |
| Under 2.5 | 54.62% | 2.27 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 54.17% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Napoli/Napoli | 30.25% | 2.05 at Bet365 |
Napoli vs Lecce Form
Napoli and Lecce's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
76 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | +22 |
|
17
|
38 | 38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | -22 |
Napoli and Lecce Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - Serie A
28 Feb 2026 - Serie A
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
15 Feb 2026 - Serie A
10 Feb 2026 - Coppa Italia
7 Feb 2026 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - Serie A
15 Feb 2026 - Serie A
10 Feb 2026 - Coppa Italia
31 Jan 2026 - Serie A
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Serie A
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
7 Feb 2026 - Serie A
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
11 Jan 2026 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Serie A
28 Feb 2026 - Serie A
21 Feb 2026 - Serie A
16 Feb 2026 - Serie A
8 Feb 2026 - Serie A
1 Feb 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Serie A
21 Feb 2026 - Serie A
8 Feb 2026 - Serie A
24 Jan 2026 - Serie A
11 Jan 2026 - Serie A
6 Jan 2026 - Serie A
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Serie A
16 Feb 2026 - Serie A
1 Feb 2026 - Serie A
18 Jan 2026 - Serie A
14 Jan 2026 - Serie A
3 Jan 2026 - Serie A
Napoli vs Lecce Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
17 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
28 Oct 2025 - Serie A
3 May 2025 - Serie A
26 Oct 2024 - Serie A
26 May 2024 - Serie A
30 Sept 2023 - Serie A
7 Apr 2023 - Serie A
Napoli against Lecce Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
N. Contini
V. Milinkovic Savic
DefenderJ. Jesus
M. Gutierrez
P. Mazzocchi
K. De Bruyne
S. McTominay
R. Lukaku
Giovane
J. Samooja
C. Fruchtl
DefenderC. Ndaba
M. Ignacio
G. Jean
S. Fofana
K. N’Dri
T. Helgason
A. Sala
O. Gandelman
F. Marchwinski
ForwardW. Cheddira
R. Sottil
Missing players
G. Di Lorenzo
A. Rrahmani
MidfielderS. Lobotka
M. Berisha
Most goals and assists
Napoli
Lecce
R. Hojlund
(12 Goals)
L. Banda
(5 Goals)
Giovane
(6 Assists)
A. Gallo
(4 Assists)
,
L. Banda
(4 Assists)
Napoli - Lecce Key Points
- Napoli are unbeaten in seven matches against Lecce, winning five.
- Lecce’s last five matches produced a total of 14 goals.
- Each of Napoli’s last four matches had over 2.5 goals.
- On average 3.5 goals were scored in Napoli’s last five home games.
- Lecce lost seven times in their last 10 league matches.
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Our Napoli vs Lecce Prediction
Lecce have improved a lot in recent matches as they push for survival. They come here off the back of some impressive results, but against Napoli, this will be a tougher outing. Napoli have the head-to-head advantage, especially when they are playing at home.
This season they haven't struggled a lot in Serie A home matches, so barring any shocks, this should go in favor of the hosts. Our prediction for Napoli v Lecce is for Napoli to win and over 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Napoli Lecce
| Napoli vs Lecce | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli wins | 1.4 | 1.42 | +1.4% |
| Draw | 4.3 | 4.82 | +12.1% |
| Lecce wins | 9.5 | 11 | +15.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Napoli is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 1.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 71.4% and is now 70.4% (-1.0%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
