Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction & Betting Tips - Serie A
Italy - Serie A
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Kennedy Kechula | in Serie A Predictions
Midweek disappointments were the order for Napoli and Fiorentina, and both will be looking to bounce back when they meet in Serie A. Fourth-placed Napoli hosts third-from-bottom Fiorentina in a quest for three points. Read on to find our prediction for the match.
Napoli’s hopes for a quadruple suffered a hammer blow on Wednesday. The Italian champions’ dismal run in the Champions League was brought to a screeching end following a 3-2 home loss to Chelsea.
It has been a rough year so far, with Napoli winning just two of their eight games. They are coming here fresh off two defeats and a three-game winless run.
Seven goals conceded in the last three matches also raise questions about their defensive strength.
Fiorentina, like Napoli, are also coming off back-to-back defeats. In midweek they were eliminated from the Coppa Italia in a 3-1 defeat at home against Como.
The loss followed an earlier 2-1 fall at the hands of Cagliari in Serie A. These two matches have left Fiorentina only competing for the Conference League and survival in Serie A.
Focusing on the league, La Viola have so far had the most shambolic campaign. Going into Matchday 23, they’ve only managed three wins. They briefly left the bottom three, but losing half of their 22 matches has had a lasting impact.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Napoli v Fiorentina Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.96 | 3.35 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.96 | 3.16 | 4.4 |
|
|
1.98 | 3.24 | 4.16 |
|
|
1.9 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.97 | 3.15 | 4.2 |
|
Pre-register for our Member Area: win €500!
What is the prediction for the football match between Napoli and Fiorentina?
Our prediction for the Napoli vs Fiorentina match is: Napoli to win and BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 31/01/2026 between Napoli and Fiorentina in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 56.28% for a win of Napoli against Fiorentina with odds of 2.04 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Napoli vs Fiorentina is 28.1% with odds of 3.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 15.61% chance ⭐ for a win of Fiorentina vs Napoli with odds of 4.5 at Stake.
Napoli - Fiorentina Prediction and Best Odds:
| Napoli Fiorentina Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli wins | 56.28% | 2.04 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 2.21 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 50.83% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Napoli/Napoli | 27.3% | 3.1 at LSbet |
Napoli vs Fiorentina Form
Napoli and Fiorentina's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
76 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | +22 |
|
15
|
42 | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | -9 |
Napoli and Fiorentina Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Serie A
14 Jan 2026 - Serie A
11 Jan 2026 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Serie A
14 Jan 2026 - Serie A
7 Jan 2026 - Serie A
22 Dec 2025 - Italian Super Cup
18 Dec 2025 - Italian Super Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
11 Jan 2026 - Serie A
4 Jan 2026 - Serie A
28 Dec 2025 - Serie A
14 Dec 2025 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Jan 2026 - Coppa Italia
24 Jan 2026 - Serie A
18 Jan 2026 - Serie A
11 Jan 2026 - Serie A
7 Jan 2026 - Serie A
4 Jan 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Jan 2026 - Coppa Italia
24 Jan 2026 - Serie A
11 Jan 2026 - Serie A
4 Jan 2026 - Serie A
21 Dec 2025 - Serie A
14 Dec 2025 - Serie A
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Jan 2026 - Serie A
7 Jan 2026 - Serie A
27 Dec 2025 - Serie A
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
6 Dec 2025 - Serie A
30 Nov 2025 - Serie A
Napoli vs Fiorentina Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
17 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
13 Sept 2025 - Serie A
9 Mar 2025 - Serie A
4 Jan 2025 - Serie A
17 May 2024 - Serie A
18 Jan 2024 - Italian Super Cup
8 Oct 2023 - Serie A
Napoli against Fiorentina Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
M. Ferrante
N. Contini
DefenderS. Beukema
M. Olivera
E. De Chiara
ForwardGiovane
R. Lukaku
O. Christensen
L. Lezzerini
DefenderF. Parisi
L. Ranieri
E. Kouadio
N. Fortini
L. Balbo
MidfielderJ. Harrison
C. Ndour
J. Fazzini
R. Mandragora
M. Kean
Missing players
V. Milinkovic Savic
DefenderP. Mazzocchi
MidfielderF. Anguissa
Most goals and assists
Napoli
Fiorentina
R. Hojlund
(12 Goals)
M. Kean
(8 Goals)
Giovane
(6 Assists)
A. Gudmundsson
(4 Assists)
Napoli - Fiorentina Key Points
- Fiorentina have lost 11 of their 22 league outings.
- Napoli failed to score in two of their last 10 games.
- Both teams scored in seven of Fiorentina’s last 10 matches.
- Napoli have posted five wins in their last 10 home encounters.
- Fiorentina lost four of their last five meetings with Napoli.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction
Napoli have had a tough run in their recent matches, and for the sake of their title defence, they can’t afford to lose more ground. They've already fallen nine points adrift of the league leaders. Fiorentina will also be looking at this game as a must-win to improve their survival chances.
At the end, we expect a big fight, and as both sides have been scoring while conceding, BTTS looks solid as a bet here. In terms of strength, though, we feel Napoli will carry the day, especially as they play at home. Our prediction for Napoli v Fiorentina is for Napoli to win and BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Napoli Fiorentina
| Napoli vs Fiorentina | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli wins | 1.7 | 2.04 | +20.0% |
| Draw | 3.9 | 3.4 | -12.8% |
| Fiorentina wins | 5.9 | 4.5 | -23.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Napoli is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 20.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 58.8% and is now 49.0% (-9.8%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Napoli vs. Fiorentina game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Napoli and Fiorentina? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's Serie A! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
