Napoli vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
Napoli seek to avoid elimination from the Champions League this week when they welcome Chelsea to conclude the first stage of the competition. Wednesday sees the final round of the league phase, and we have a prediction for the first match between the teams since 2012.
Napoli arrive for this round sitting outside the playoff spots, in 25th. Chelsea, on the other hand, are in operating from a much better position than their hosts, rising to eighth after Matchday 7. Italian champions Napoli have accumulated eight points, and failure to beat the Blues could see them eliminated from Europe.
As for Chelsea, a win at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium will see them qualify for the round of 16. The London club currently occupies eighth place with 13 points. Though playing away from home, bookmakers have Chelsea as the best bet to win this match, while a draw is considered the least likely result.
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Napoli v Chelsea Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.65 | 3.6 | 2.06 |
|
|
3.42 | 3.62 | 2.06 |
|
|
3.6 | 3.56 | 2.02 |
|
|
3.4 | 3.6 | 2.05 |
|
|
3.45 | 3.5 | 2.08 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Napoli and Chelsea?
Our prediction for the Napoli vs Chelsea match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 28/01/2026 between Napoli and Chelsea in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.19% for a win of Napoli against Chelsea with odds of 3.74 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Napoli vs Chelsea is 32.35% with odds of 3.7 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 31.46% chance ⭐ for a win of Chelsea vs Napoli with odds of 2.11 at Tonybet.
Napoli - Chelsea Prediction and Best Odds:
| Napoli Chelsea Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli wins | 36.19% | 3.74 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.22% | 1.85 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 64.29% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Napoli/Napoli | 15.27% | 5.75 at LSbet |
Napoli vs Chelsea Form
Napoli and Chelsea's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6
|
16 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +7 |
|
30
|
8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
Napoli and Chelsea Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Serie A
14 Jan 2026 - Serie A
11 Jan 2026 - Serie A
7 Jan 2026 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Serie A
14 Jan 2026 - Serie A
7 Jan 2026 - Serie A
22 Dec 2025 - Italian Super Cup
18 Dec 2025 - Italian Super Cup
7 Dec 2025 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
11 Jan 2026 - Serie A
4 Jan 2026 - Serie A
28 Dec 2025 - Serie A
14 Dec 2025 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
16 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
Napoli - Chelsea: Form Analysis
Napoli have been slowly regressing, and it all came to a head over the weekend. The Partenopei had won just one of the previous five matches before traveling to Juventus on Sunday. In Turin, Antonio Conte’s men were outscored 3-0. With that, they lost even more ground in their title defense.
They have no more room for error in Europe following their 1-1 draw with Copenhagen last time out. The Blues have a negative goal difference, which is keeping them out of the playoff places for the round of 16. With three losses and just two wins from seven matches, the Italians cannot make the next round without going through the playoffs.
Chelsea and Napoli are meeting for the first time in 14 years.
Chelsea lost 3-1 the last time they traveled Napoli. That was in the second round of the 2012 Champions League. They would mount a comeback in the return leg on their way to winning their first Champions League crown. Roberto Di Matteo was just days in his role as Chelsea manager during that comeback win over Napoli.
It is almost a similar situation with Liam Rosenior, who has started his tenure brightly. The Blues labored through a 1-0 win against Pafos in the last round. They were more fluid in their 3-1 win against Crystal Palace over the weekend to strengthen their Premier League top-four chances.
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Napoli against Chelsea Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
D. Antonio Spinelli
N. Contini
DefenderM. Gutierrez
C. Garofalo
S. Beukema
E. De Chiara
ForwardR. Lukaku
F. Jorgensen
M. Merrick
DefenderJ. Hato
J. Acheampong
B. Badiashile
T. Chalobah
C. Palmer
T. George
ForwardL. Delap
A. Garnacho
J. Gittens
M. Guiu
Missing players
V. Milinkovic Savic
DefenderA. Rrahmani
MidfielderK. De Bruyne
F. Anguissa
B. Gilmour
ForwardM. Politano
D. Neres
T. Adarabioyo
L. Colwill
MidfielderR. Lavia
ForwardM. Mudryk
Napoli & Chelsea Squad Analysis
The injury bug has hit Napoli, leaving them with a lengthy list of absentees. Amir Rrahmani, Billy Gilmour, Frank Anguissa, and Matteo Politano are injured and unavailable. David Neres has been slowed down by an ankle injury and has been in and out of the team this month.
There is, however, some good news for the hosts, as star forward Romelu Lukaku is back after a lengthy injury layoff. The Belgian forward was a substitute against Juventus and is likely to be involved again off the bench in midweek. Scott McTominay has scored four goals in the Champions League, and together with Rasmus Hojlund, they are Napoli’s leading scorers.
Napoli forward Romelu Lukaku is in line to face his former employers.
Chelsea are much healthier than their hosts, with only long-term injury absentees Levi Colwill and Romeo Lavia missing. Cole Palmer missed the weekend trip to Palace, but it is believed to be a precautionary measure. The midfielder should be available for this trip to Italy.
Meanwhile, young forward Estevao is having an exciting debut season with Chelsea. He was on target in the win at Selhurst Park and has scored three goals in the UCL. Joao Pedro and Enzo Fernandez were also on target against Palace and are others to look out for here.
Most goals and assists
Napoli
Chelsea
S. McTominay
(4 Goals)
E. Fernandez
(3 Goals)
, 
Estevao
(3 Goals)
,
Joao Pedro
(3 Goals)
K. De Bruyne
(2 Assists)
, 
M. Olivera
(2 Assists)
R. James
(2 Assists)
,
E. Fernandez
(2 Assists)
,
C. Palmer
(2 Assists)
Napoli - Chelsea Key Points
- In their latest outing, Napoli conceded three goals.
- A total of 18 goals were netted in Chelsea’s last five games.
- Seven of Chelsea’s last 10 away matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Eight goals were netted in these teams’ two previous meetings.
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Our Napoli vs Chelsea Prediction
Our prediction for Napoli v Chelsea is for this match to have more than 2.5 goals. This fixture is a must-win for both teams. Chelsea has to win to avoid going through the round of 16 playoffs, while Napoli will avoid European elimination with a victory.
With these dynamics, we expect an exciting battle marked with goals. Chelsea are a strong attacking team and have significantly improved in this regard under new management. Napoli are also a sharp attacking side and have been boosted by the return of Romelu Lukaku.
Napoli vs Chelsea Alternative Predictions
Napoli to win.
In our second prediction, we pick Napoli to win. Though they were well beaten this past weekend, Napoli remain a strong unit. When competing at home, the Blues have been tough to beat, turning the Armando Maradona into a fortress.
Meanwhile, Chelsea’s only visit to Napoli ended in defeat and they’ve suffered seven losses in nine away games against Italian sides.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Napoli Chelsea
| Napoli vs Chelsea | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli wins | 2.68 | 3.74 | +39.6% |
| Draw | 3.61 | 3.7 | +2.5% |
| Chelsea wins | 2.74 | 2.11 | -23.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Napoli is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 39.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 37.3% and is now 26.7% (-10.6%)
Napoli vs Chelsea - FAQs
This match will be played on Wednesday, 28 January.
This match will be played at Napoli’s Diego Armando Maradona Stadium in Naples, Italy.
UK fans can watch this match live on TNT Sports 4 and Amazon Prime, while those in Italy can watch via Sky as well as Amazon Prime. Updates for the match and other UEFA Champions League games will be available on Sportytrader.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
