Monaco vs PSG Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
French rivals PSG and Monaco meet this Tuesday for the first leg of their UEFA Champions League round of 16 playoff knockout tie. Monaco will host this match, with the return leg in Paris coming a week later. The winner on aggregate at the end of the two fixtures will proceed to the round of 16. Read on to find our prediction for this match.
Though Monaco won the first meeting between these two in Ligue 1 at home, it is PSG, the UCL’s defending champions, who bookmakers favor to win. It isn’t hard to see why, with Les Parisiens having finished the league phase in 11th spot, 10 places ahead of Monaco.
It is through this route that PSG went all the way to win last season’s title. At this corresponding stage, they thrashed Brest 10-0 on aggregate. This is what Monaco will be looking to stop, having gone unbeaten in their last four home UCL matches (3D, 1W).
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Monaco v PSG Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.6 | 5.2 | 1.44 |
|
|
6.5 | 4.76 | 1.45 |
|
|
6.3 | 4.84 | 1.45 |
|
|
6.5 | 4.75 | 1.45 |
|
|
6.2 | 4.8 | 1.47 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Monaco and PSG?
Our prediction for the Monaco vs PSG match is: PSG wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/02/2026 between Monaco and PSG in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 30% for a win of Monaco against PSG with odds of 6.8 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Monaco vs PSG is 16.04% with odds of 5.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 53.96% chance ⭐ for a win of PSG vs Monaco with odds of 1.51 at 888Starz.
Monaco - PSG Prediction and Best Odds:
| Monaco PSG Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| PSG wins | 53.96% | 1.51 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.31% | |
| Both Team To Score | 52.92% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: PSG | 29.8% | 4.5 at Bet365 |
Monaco vs PSG Form
Monaco and PSG Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
5 Feb 2026 - French Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
31 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
3 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
5 Feb 2026 - French Cup
24 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
10 Jan 2026 - French Cup
21 Dec 2025 - French Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
23 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Jan 2026 - French Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Trophée des Champions
4 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
23 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
20 Dec 2025 - French Cup
13 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
Monaco vs PSG Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
7 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Jan 2025 - Trophée des Champions
18 Dec 2024 - Ligue 1
1 Mar 2024 - Ligue 1
24 Nov 2023 - Ligue 1
Monaco - PSG: Form Analysis
Monaco scraped through to the playoffs after a disappointing League Phase campaign. Sebastien Pocognoli’s men won just two of eight matches in the first round and finished with 10 points after drawing four other matches.
The Red and Whites finished in position 21. With such a record, the hosts need massive improvement to match PSG. Monaco have lost just once in their last six games. Though they have been tough to crack, this hasn’t translated to wins, as they have won just twice in this stretch. Monaco, who drew 0-0 with Juventus at home in their final league phase match, are coming off a 3-1 win over Nantes.
PSG and Monaco are meeting in Europe for the first time ever.
PSG would have avoided this round had they won their last match of the league stage. The reigning European champions were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Newcastle United and finished two points adrift of the top eight.
Les Parisiens won four games in the first round and drew another two to finish with 14 points. That draw with Newcastle was part of a four-game unbeaten run that came to an end this weekend in domestic league action. Playing away to Rennes, the capital club missed out on the chance to extend their league lead as they lost 3-1.
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Monaco against PSG Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
J. Stawiecki
Y. Lienard
MidfielderI. Toure
S. Idumbo-Muzambo
M. Coulibaly
A. Bamba
K. Diatta
S. Nibombe
ForwardM. Biereth
L. Chevalier
R. Marin
DefenderI. Zabarnyi
Beraldo
L. Hernandez
MidfielderL. Kang-in
D. Fernandez
ForwardD. Doue
I. Mbaye
G. Ramos
Missing players
L. Hradecky
DefenderE. Dier
M. Salisu
C. Mawissa
K. Ouattara
MidfielderP. Pogba
T. Minamino
P. Cabral
ForwardP. Brunner
F. Ruiz
S. Mayulu
ForwardQ. Ndjantou
Monaco & PSG Squad Analysis
Injury-ravaged Monaco could miss up to 10 players in this match. Maghnes Akliouche and Lamine Camara are doubtful with injuries. They are the only players on an extensive injury list that have a chance of featuring on Tuesday; the rest are all out.
Takumi Minamino, Pape Cabral, Eric Dier, Lukas Hradecky, Christian Mawissa, Kassoum Ouattra, Paul Pogba, and Mohammed Salisu are all battling injuries. Florian Balogun has scored eight goals for Monaco, with three coming in the Champions League. The American forward should lead the line against Paris with new signing Simon Adingra, who netted a brace at the weekend, in support.
PSG's Dembele has three goals in his last twoi matches.
PSG are much healthier, and at present, only two players are ruled out for this match: Fabian Ruiz and Quentin Ndjantou. Injuries have stunted Ousmane Dembele’s post-MVP campaign, and he has netted just once in the UCL; he will hope to do better.
Vitinha is Paris’ leading scorer in Europe, with five of his six goals this term coming in the competition. PSG have a rich pool of attacking options from which to pick. Khvicha Kvaratshkelia and Desire Doue have scored a combined five goals in Europe, while Goncalo Ramos has been reliable whenever called upon.
Most goals and assists
Monaco
PSG
F. Balogun
(5 Goals)
K. Kvaratskhelia
(10 Goals)
M. Akliouche
(3 Assists)
K. Kvaratskhelia
(7 Assists)
Monaco - PSG Key Points
- Four of the last six meetings between PSG and Monaco were won by the former.
- Monaco have failed to win in seven of their last 10 games, losing four times.
- Monaco have scored just eight goals in the UCL this season.
- PSG have won six times in their last 10 outings.
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Our Monaco vs PSG Prediction
Our prediction for Monaco v PSG is that PSG wins. PSG lost to Monaco in their first meeting of the season in Ligue 1 action. They had gone unbeaten in five games, winning four times before that loss in November.
PSG have also fared much better in recent weeks and in the Champions League than their hosts. Monaco have found wins elusive, and in their last 10 outings, have won just three times. The Red and Whites, who are going through an injury crisis, have also managed just two wins in the UCL this term.
Monaco vs PSG Alternative Predictions
More than 2.5 goals
In our second prediction, we fancy an over 2.5 goals outcome. PSG are one of the top attacking sides in Europe and have managed over 20 goals in eight matches in the UCL. Monaco, on their part, are playing at home, where their attacking form has hit new heights in recent outings.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Monaco PSG
| Monaco vs PSG | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco wins | 5.4 | 6.8 | +25.9% |
| Draw | 4.3 | 5.4 | +25.6% |
| PSG wins | 1.54 | 1.51 | -1.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- PSG is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 64.9% and is now 66.2% (1.3%)
Monaco vs PSG - FAQs
This match will be played on Tuesday, 17 February.
This match will be played at Monaco’s Stade Louis II in Monaco, France.
Fans in France will have the feed to this game on Canal+. If in the UK, you can watch this match live on TNT Sports 1, while live updates of this and other Champions League matches will be available on Sportytrader.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
