Mexico vs England Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in World Cup Predictions
The marquee matchup of the Round of 16 at the 2026 World Cup comes from the iconic Estadio Azteca, where Mexico will take on England in the early hours of Monday morning. El Tri’s defence has been flawless in this competition, which sees us leaning toward a low-scoring affair here as our match prediction.
Javier Aguirre’s side has made the most of their home advantage in this competition, as they have won all four of their games so far and have yet to concede a single goal. However, Mexico have bowed out of the World Cup in this very round in seven of the last eight editions, with the exception being in Qatar four years ago when they failed to make it out of the group stage.
Thomas Tuchel’s blushes were saved by a Harry Kane masterclass in the Round of 32 against DR Congo. The Three Lions are still unbeaten in this competition, but while they are the favourites in this match, Tuchel has claimed that the tournament co-hosts have “a huge advantage” due to the altitude of Estadio Azteca. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Mexico v England Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
23 | 4.5 | 1.22 |
|
|
76 | 4.75 | 1.18 |
|
|
3.13 | 3.01 | 2.61 |
|
|
3.04 | 3.06 | 2.6 |
|
|
473 | 13 | 1.04 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Mexico and England?
Our prediction for the Mexico vs England match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/07/2026 between Mexico and England in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.35% for a win of Mexico against England with odds of 473 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Mexico vs England is 10.21% with odds of 13 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 47.45% chance ⭐ for a win of England vs Mexico with odds of 2.69 at 888Starz.
Mexico - England Prediction and Best Odds:
| Mexico England Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| England wins | 47.45% | 2.69 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 61.81% | 2.07 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 88.1% | 1.83 at 22bet |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: England | 19.96% | 6 at LSbet |
Mexico vs England Form
Mexico and England Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jun 2026 - World Cup
24 Jun 2026 - World Cup
18 Jun 2026 - World Cup
11 Jun 2026 - World Cup
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
30 May 2026 - International Friendlies
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jun 2026 - World Cup
18 Jun 2026 - World Cup
11 Jun 2026 - World Cup
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
30 May 2026 - International Friendlies
22 May 2026 - International Friendlies
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jun 2026 - World Cup
25 Jan 2026 - International Friendlies
22 Jan 2026 - International Friendlies
6 Jul 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
18 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
20 Mar 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jul 2026 - World Cup
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
23 Jun 2026 - World Cup
17 Jun 2026 - World Cup
10 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jul 2026 - World Cup
23 Jun 2026 - World Cup
17 Jun 2026 - World Cup
10 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
7 Jun 2025 - World Cup
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Mexico - England: Form Analysis
Mexico has been one of the most impressive teams at the 2026 World Cup. They breezed through Group A, clinching top spot with wins against South Africa (2-0), South Korea (1-0), and Czechia (3-0).
El Tri then struck twice inside the first half of their Round of 32 clash against Ecuador and saw out the match with little issue. They are now the only team yet to concede a goal in this competition.
With those results, the tournament co-hosts are now riding a seven-match win streak across all competitions and are unbeaten in their last 13, dating back to a 1-0 friendly loss to Paraguay last November.
Mexico are unbeaten in their last 10 matches at Estadio Azteca!
Meanwhile, England kicked off their campaign with a 4-2 victory over Croatia, before delivering a couple of less convincing performances against Ghana (0-0) and Panama (2-0) in the group stage.
The Three Lions then avoided an embarrassing early exit from the competition in the Round of 32 by overturning a 1-0 deficit to beat DR Congo 2-1, thanks to the late heroics of captain Harry Kane.
England are now unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions (W5 D1) since March this year. They have averaged two goals per game and have kept four clean sheets during this period.
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Mexico against England Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
G. Ochoa
C. Acevedo
DefenderE. Alvarez
I. Reyes
M. Chavez
MidfielderB. Gutierrez
O. Vargas
A. Fidalgo
L. Chavez
O. Pineda
ForwardC. Huerta
A. Vega
A. Gonzalez
S. Gimenez
G. Martinez
J. Trafford
D. Henderson
DefenderT. Chalobah
R. James
D. Spence
D. Burn
J. Stones
K. Mainoo
E. Eze
M. Rogers
J. Henderson
ForwardN. Madueke
I. Toney
O. Watkins
M. Rashford
Mexico & England Squad Analysis
After edging Ivan Toney to the Golden Boot in the Saudi Pro League, Julian Quinones has carried his stellar form onto football’s grandest stage. He leads the team with three goals and provided an assist in their victory over Ecuador.
Raul Jimenez has netted twice for El Tri in this competition, and his hold-up play has been key to unleashing Quinones down the flank. The Wolves attacker should lead the line here with Roberto Alvarado completing the attacking trio.
Brian Gutierrez had an impressive cameo off the bench in the last match and could get the nod ahead of Gilberto Mora in midfield. Mexico have no new injury concerns for this blockbuster matchup.
Can Harry Kane deliver again for England in the Round of 16?
England’s skipper has been the best player for his side in this competition. He is now on five goals in four games, and his brace against the Leopards took his World Cup goals tally to 13, which ranks joint-sixth in the all-time top-scorers list.
Anthony Gordon’s cameo in the last match was a record-breaking one. The Barcelona winger came off the bench to set up both Kane’s goals, which saw him become the first player in World Cup history to record two assists as a substitute in a knockout-stage match.
Tuchel confirmed that Jarell Quansah has recovered from his injury and could start at right-back. He will certainly be tested here, as he will be up against the dangerous Quinones.
Most goals and assists
Mexico
England
J. Quinones
(4 Goals)
J. Bellingham
(7 Goals)
R. Alvarado
(3 Assists)
B. Saka
(3 Assists)
,
A. Gordon
(3 Assists)
Mexico - England Key Points
- Mexico has kept clean sheets in 10 of their last 12 matches in all competitions.
- Three of Mexico’s four games in this competition ended with under 2.5 goals.
- Mexico and England have recorded 0.56 and 0.58 xGA per 90 in this competition.
- England has kept four clean sheets in their last six matches in all competitions.
- Seven of England’s last 10 games ended with under 2.5 goals.
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Our Mexico vs England Prediction
While Mexico have been very good in attack, the most impressive part of their performances in this competition has been their defensive solidity, as they are the only team yet to concede a single goal in the 2026 World Cup.
England have conceded three times in this tournament, but they still have the fourth-best xGA of any team, just 0.02 higher than El Tri. Elite defence has been the key to these sides' impressive records over the past year, and it would not surprise us if the first goal in this match turned out to be the winner. Our Mexico vs England prediction is less than 2.5 goals.
Mexico vs England Alternative Predictions
Draw
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Mexico England
| Mexico vs England | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico wins | 3.25 | 473 | +14,453.8% |
| Draw | 3.17 | 13 | +310.1% |
| England wins | 2.54 | 2.69 | +5.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- England is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 5.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 39.4% and is now 37.2% (-2.2%)
Mexico vs England - FAQs
The 2026 World Cup Round of 16 match between Mexico and England will take place on July 6 at 00:00 UTC.
The 2026 World Cup Round of 16 match between Mexico and England will be played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
The 2026 World Cup Round of 16 match between Mexico and England will be broadcast on TV Azteca in Mexico, while UK viewers can tune in to the BBC and ITV.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our World Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
