Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction & Betting Tips - A-League
Australia - A-League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in A-League Predictions
The final fixture on Matchday 23 in the A-League comes from AAMI Park, where Melbourne Victory will be playing host to Wellington Phoenix on Sunday. The Big V are third in the league standings, while the Nix are in eighth place. Let’s get into the match prediction!
With four games to go, Melbourne Victory moved into the top three in the standings last week, thanks to an impressive 4-1 win at home over Central Coast Mariners.
The Boys in Blue are now unbeaten in their last seven league games since early February (W4 D3) and scored two or more goals in five of those matches. However, they failed to keep a clean sheet in this period.
The Big V are also unbeaten in their last five home game (W3 D2) and scored four goals in each of their last two. They have not lost to this opponent in any competition at this venue since 2017.
Meanwhile, Wellington Phoenix kept their hopes of finishing in the top six alive last week by coming back from a goal down to beat Brisbane Roar 2-1 on the road.
The Nix are now four points behind sixth-placed Macarthur and unbeaten in their last three games (W2 D1), a notable improvement after going seven matches without victory before this run.
The visitors have earned 11 points from their last six away games (W3 D2 L1) and scored two or more goals in all but one of those matches.
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Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.54 | 4.6 | 5.2 |
|
|
1.58 | 4.76 | 4.78 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.68 | 5.7 |
|
|
1.53 | 4.5 | 5 |
|
|
1.53 | 4.6 | 5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix?
Our prediction for the Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/04/2026 between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix in A-League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 47.15% for a win of Melbourne Victory against Wellington Phoenix with odds of 1.58 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix is 26.09% with odds of 4.8 at Shangrila.
- Our prediction model gives a 26.76% chance ⭐ for a win of Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory with odds of 5.75 at LSbet.
Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix Prediction and Best Odds:
| Melbourne Victory Wellington Phoenix Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory wins | 47.15% | 1.58 at Melbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.62% | 1.65 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 63.75% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Melbourne Victory/Melbourne Victory | 19% | 2.3 at Bet365 |
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Form
Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix's standings in the A-League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
40 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | +11 |
|
8
|
33 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -12 |
Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Mar 2026 - A-League
15 Mar 2026 - A-League
7 Mar 2026 - A-League
27 Feb 2026 - A-League
21 Feb 2026 - A-League
14 Feb 2026 - A-League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Mar 2026 - A-League
15 Mar 2026 - A-League
27 Feb 2026 - A-League
14 Feb 2026 - A-League
26 Jan 2026 - A-League
10 Jan 2026 - A-League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - A-League
21 Feb 2026 - A-League
6 Feb 2026 - A-League
1 Feb 2026 - A-League
17 Jan 2026 - A-League
20 Dec 2025 - A-League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Mar 2026 - A-League
13 Mar 2026 - A-League
6 Mar 2026 - A-League
28 Feb 2026 - A-League
20 Feb 2026 - A-League
13 Feb 2026 - A-League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Mar 2026 - A-League
28 Feb 2026 - A-League
20 Feb 2026 - A-League
6 Feb 2026 - A-League
30 Jan 2026 - A-League
10 Jan 2026 - A-League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Mar 2026 - A-League
6 Mar 2026 - A-League
13 Feb 2026 - A-League
23 Jan 2026 - A-League
18 Jan 2026 - A-League
3 Jan 2026 - A-League
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
0 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Feb 2026 - A-League
29 Dec 2025 - A-League
12 Apr 2025 - A-League
14 Feb 2025 - A-League
23 Nov 2024 - A-League
18 May 2024 - A-League
Melbourne Victory against Wellington Phoenix Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
J. Duncan
DefenderJ. Davidson
L. D'Arrigo
C. Santos Rodrigus
M. Grimaldi
R. Piscopo
C. Nduka
A. Kelly-Heald
DefenderM. James
L. Kelly-Heald
S. Kartum
F. Conchie
L. Brooke-Smith
C. Armiento
Most goals and assists
Melbourne Victory
Wellington Phoenix
N. Vergos
(7 Goals)
E. Ifeanyi
(10 Goals)
J. Mata
(12 Assists)
K. Nagasawa
(4 Assists)
, 
C. Piper
(4 Assists)
,
T. Payne
(4 Assists)
Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix Key Points
- Eight of Melbourne Victory’s last 10 games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Melbourne Victory have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 home matches.
- Wellington Phoenix have only kept one clean sheet in their last nine games.
- Wellington Phoenix have scored two or more goals in five of their last six away matches.
- Both teams scored in each of the last three matches between these sides.
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Our Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction
Melbourne Victory have enjoyed an excellent second half of the season, which has got them into the top three in the standings and just four points off second-placed Auckland. No team has earned more than the Big V’s 11 points in the last five gameweeks.
However, Wellington Phoenix are also trending upward of late, unbeaten in three games, while having only lost one of their last six on the road. Given both these sides’ form, we are expecting goals at both ends in this fixture. Our Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix prediction is BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Melbourne Victory Wellington Phoenix
| Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory wins | 1.47 | 1.58 | +7.5% |
| Draw | 4.58 | 4.8 | +4.8% |
| Wellington Phoenix wins | 6.5 | 5.75 | -11.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Melbourne Victory is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 7.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 68.0% and is now 63.3% (-4.7%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Melbourne Victory vs. Wellington Phoenix game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on A-League!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
