Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Prediction & Betting Tips - A-League

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Australia - A-League

Melbourne City
21/02/2026 03:35
Melbourne Victory

Prediction :

 

Less than 2.5 goals

 
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 by Devesh Jaganath | in A-League Predictions

Saturday in the A-League brings us the Melbourne Derby between Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory at AAMI Park. The City Boys and the Big V are seventh and sixth in the league standings, respectively. Let’s get into the match prediction.

Melbourne City booked their place in the last 16 of the AFC Champions League last week, but they now need to get back to winning ways here in the domestic league.

City were held to a 1-1 draw by Western Sydney Wanderers in their last match - their third league game without victory. They have still only scored 19 goals this season, which is the third-fewest in the top flight. 

Hearts lost the last Melbourne Derby 1-0 back in December, a result that ended their four-match unbeaten run in the fixture. 

Meanwhile, after an excellent performance away to Wellington Phoenix on Matchday 16, Melbourne Victory were also held to a 1-1 draw last week at home to Brisbane Roar. 

The Big V have now taken just seven points from their last six games (W2 D1 L3), a notable dip after picking up 13 points from their preceding six (W4 D1 L1) A-League matches. 

Matches between these cross-town rivals have been closely contested, with only one team scoring in each of the last three encounters, two of which were decided by a single goal.

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Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory Best Betting Odds

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Stake
2.7 3.4 2.55
Melbet
2.75 3.28 2.59
Betwinner
2.73 3.34 2.58
Bet365
2.4 3.6 2.75
Roobet
2.5 3.35 2.66
Check all Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory odds

What is the prediction for the football match between Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory?

Our prediction for the Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory match is: less than 2.5 goals.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/02/2026 between Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory in A-League :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 39.63% for a win of Melbourne City against Melbourne Victory with odds of 2.75 at Melbet.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory is 29.57% with odds of 3.6 at Bet365.
  • Our prediction model gives a 30.8% chance ⭐ for a win of Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City with odds of 2.75 at Bet365.

Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory Prediction and Best Odds:

Melbourne City Melbourne Victory Prediction Probability Odds
Melbourne City wins 39.63% 2.75 at Melbet
Under 2.5 61.36% 2 at Bet365
Both Team To Score: No 61.67%
Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Melbourne City 16.14% 6.75 at LSbet

Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Form

Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory's standings in the A-League

Teams Pts P W D L GD
4 Melbourne Victory
40 26 11 7 8 +11
6 Melbourne City
38 26 10 8 8 0

Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory Last Matches

Melbourne City
Melbourne City Last matches
W L D D W D
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
83% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1.83 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

18 Feb 2026 - AFC Champions League

Melbourne City
0 :  0
Gangwon FC

11 Feb 2026 - AFC Champions League

Ulsan HD FC
1 :  2
Melbourne City

7 Feb 2026 - A-League

Western Sydney Wanderers
1 :  1
Melbourne City

30 Jan 2026 - A-League

Wellington Phoenix
2 :  2
Melbourne City

24 Jan 2026 - A-League

Macarthur FC
6 :  2
Melbourne City

16 Jan 2026 - A-League

Melbourne City
2 :  1
Auckland FC
L D W L W D
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.5 Total goals
33% BTTS
0.67 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

18 Feb 2026 - AFC Champions League

Melbourne City
0 :  0
Gangwon FC

16 Jan 2026 - A-League

Melbourne City
2 :  1
Auckland FC

11 Jan 2026 - A-League

Melbourne City
0 :  1
Newcastle United Jets

6 Jan 2026 - A-League

Melbourne City
1 :  0
Brisbane Roar

3 Jan 2026 - A-League

Melbourne City
0 :  0
Sydney

28 Dec 2025 - A-League

Melbourne City
1 :  3
Perth Glory
W D L D D W
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
83% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

11 Feb 2026 - AFC Champions League

Ulsan HD FC
1 :  2
Melbourne City

7 Feb 2026 - A-League

Western Sydney Wanderers
1 :  1
Melbourne City

30 Jan 2026 - A-League

Wellington Phoenix
2 :  2
Melbourne City

24 Jan 2026 - A-League

Macarthur FC
6 :  2
Melbourne City

10 Dec 2025 - AFC Champions League

FC Seoul
1 :  1
Melbourne City

6 Dec 2025 - A-League

Newcastle United Jets
0 :  1
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory Last matches
L L W L W D
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

14 Feb 2026 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
1 :  1
Brisbane Roar

6 Feb 2026 - A-League

Wellington Phoenix
2 :  3
Melbourne Victory

1 Feb 2026 - A-League

Central Coast Mariners
1 :  0
Melbourne Victory

26 Jan 2026 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
4 :  0
Sydney

17 Jan 2026 - A-League

Adelaide United
2 :  1
Melbourne Victory

10 Jan 2026 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
0 :  1
Western Sydney Wanderers
W W W L W D
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
2.5 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

14 Feb 2026 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
1 :  1
Brisbane Roar

26 Jan 2026 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
4 :  0
Sydney

10 Jan 2026 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
0 :  1
Western Sydney Wanderers

2 Jan 2026 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
3 :  2
Perth Glory

29 Dec 2025 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
5 :  1
Wellington Phoenix

13 Dec 2025 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
2 :  1
Adelaide United
L D W L L W
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.83 Total goals
33% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

6 Feb 2026 - A-League

Wellington Phoenix
2 :  3
Melbourne Victory

1 Feb 2026 - A-League

Central Coast Mariners
1 :  0
Melbourne Victory

17 Jan 2026 - A-League

Adelaide United
2 :  1
Melbourne Victory

20 Dec 2025 - A-League

Melbourne City
0 :  1
Melbourne Victory

5 Dec 2025 - A-League

Macarthur FC
0 :  0
Melbourne Victory

28 Nov 2025 - A-League

Brisbane Roar
1 :  0
Melbourne Victory

Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Melbourne City

33 %

Draw

33 %

Melbourne Victory

33 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.33
Total goals
50%
BTTS
1.17
Goals scored
1.17
Goals conceded
33.33%
Over 2.5
66.67%
Under 2.5

20 Dec 2025 - A-League

Melbourne City
0 :  1
Melbourne Victory

8 Nov 2025 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
0 :  2
Melbourne City

31 May 2025 - A-League

Melbourne City
1 :  0
Melbourne Victory

22 Feb 2025 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
2 :  2
Melbourne City

21 Dec 2024 - A-League

Melbourne Victory
1 :  1
Melbourne City

26 Oct 2024 - A-League

Melbourne City
1 :  3
Melbourne Victory

Melbourne City against Melbourne Victory Lineups: Starting 11

Melbourne City

Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2

1
P. Beach
13
N. Atkinson
2
H. Delbridge
22
G. Ferreyra
16
A. Behich
8
R. Teague
28
M. Younis
14
D. Arzani
21
A. Lopane
17
M. Caputo
35
M. Memeti
44
C. Nduka
23
K. Jelacic
64
J. Mata
17
N. Velupillay
10
D. Genreau
8
J. Valadon
2
J. Davidson
21
R. Miranda
15
S. Esposito
22
J. Rawlins
40
J. Warshawsky

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Melbourne Victory

Substitutes

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
Goalkeeper

J. Nieuwenhuizen

Defender

B. Kutleshi

S. Souprayen

K. Rahmani 78'

Midfielder

E. Durakovic

M. Memeti 59'

Z. Schreiber

D. Arzani 70'

A. Kuen

M. Caputo 70'

Forward

K. Rahmani

A. Lopane 58'

Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
Goalkeeper

J. Duncan

Defender

J. Inserra

Midfielder

X. Stella

C. Santos Rodrigus

N. Velupillay 81'

M. Grimaldi

K. Jelacic 62'

Forward

J. Reec

J. Mata 90'

N. Vergos

C. Nduka 62'

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Melbourne City
CD Huachipato Melbourne Victory
Top Goalscorer
Australia M. Caputo (8 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Greece N. Vergos (7 Goals)
Best assists
Austria A. Kuen (4 Assists)
Best assists
Spain J. Mata (12 Assists)

Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory Key Points

  1. Eight of Melbourne City’s last 12 league games have ended with under 2.5 goals.
  2. Only one goal was scored in three of Melbourne City’s last four home games.
  3. Eight of Melbourne Victory’s last 15 league games have ended with under 2.5 goals.
  4. Four of Melbourne Victory’s last six away games have ended with under 2.5 goals.
  5. Fewer than three goals were scored in each of the last three matches between these sides.
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Our Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Prediction

While Melbourne City have been excelling in continental competition, their domestic form has dipped, and they have still only scored 19 league goals this term, which is the third-fewest in the top flight. 

Melbourne Victory ended their four-match winless run in this fixture back in December with a hard-fought 1-0 win, and we are expecting this match to be another tight, low-scoring encounter, where the first goal could be the winner again. Our Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory prediction is less than 2.5 goals. 

Prediction :

 

Less than 2.5 goals

 
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Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Melbourne City Melbourne Victory

Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Opening odds Pre-match odds Odds Movements
Melbourne City wins 2.19 2.75 +25.6%
Draw 3.54 3.6 +1.7%
Melbourne Victory wins 3.18 2.75 -13.5%
Latest odds movements:

After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:

  • Melbourne City is most likely to win
  • The odds for this bet have increased by 25.6% since opening
  • The probability of this result was 45.7% and is now 36.4% (-9.3%)

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Prediction