Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory FC Prediction & Betting Tips - A-League
Australia - A-League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in A-League Predictions
It’s time for the Christmas Melbourne Derby as City and Victory meet in matchday nine of the 2025-26 A-League on Saturday. This match in Melbourne between the fourth-placed ‘City Blues’ and the 12th-placed ‘Dark Blues’ comes with our prediction of less than 2.5 goals.
The city’s 12 points (W3, D3, L1) see them start this round three points behind third and with a game in hand. Victory are stuck at the basement of the table with eight points (W2, D2, L4), although just a point behind sixth.
City drew 1-1 away at FC Seoul last week in the AFC Champions League. That was their second draw in the last three competitive games, while only two wins from their last five league matches (D2, L1) suggest they aren’t yet in full rhythm.
Playing as hosts may work to their advantage, as their last such match saw a 4-0 win for City against Perth Glory.
Victory warmed up for the derby with a crucial 2-1 win at home against Adelaide United last week. That made it four points in two league games, right after three successive defeats.
It would be a challenge to see how they line up as visitors, having lost two of their recent three league trips (D1). Even their home form has been indifferent in Melbourne (W1, D1, L1) lately.
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Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory FC Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.12 | 3.45 | 3.15 |
|
|
2.17 | 3.54 | 3.22 |
|
|
2.17 | 3.54 | 3.22 |
|
|
2.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
|
|
2.12 | 3.45 | 3.15 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory FC?
Our prediction for the Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory FC match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 20/12/2025 between Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory FC in A-League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 56.24% for a win of Melbourne City against Melbourne Victory FC with odds of 2.2 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory FC is 24.28% with odds of 3.6 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 19.48% chance ⭐ for a win of Melbourne Victory FC vs Melbourne City with odds of 3.46 at 888Starz.
Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory FC Prediction and Best Odds:
| Melbourne City Melbourne Victory FC Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City wins | 56.24% | 2.2 at Betway |
| Under 2.5 | 58.96% | 1.96 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 63.33% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Melbourne City/Melbourne City | 25.94% | 3.5 at Bet365 |
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory FC Form
Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory FC's standings in the A-League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
40 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | +11 |
|
6
|
38 | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory FC Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Dec 2025 - AFC Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - A-League
29 Nov 2025 - A-League
25 Nov 2025 - AFC Champions League
21 Nov 2025 - A-League
8 Nov 2025 - A-League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Nov 2025 - AFC Champions League
25 Oct 2025 - A-League
21 Oct 2025 - AFC Champions League
16 Sept 2025 - AFC Champions League
31 May 2025 - A-League
24 May 2025 - A-League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Dec 2025 - AFC Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - A-League
29 Nov 2025 - A-League
21 Nov 2025 - A-League
8 Nov 2025 - A-League
4 Nov 2025 - AFC Champions League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Dec 2025 - A-League
5 Dec 2025 - A-League
28 Nov 2025 - A-League
22 Nov 2025 - A-League
8 Nov 2025 - A-League
31 Oct 2025 - A-League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Dec 2025 - A-League
8 Nov 2025 - A-League
18 Oct 2025 - A-League
11 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2025 - A-League
4 May 2025 - A-League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Dec 2025 - A-League
28 Nov 2025 - A-League
22 Nov 2025 - A-League
31 Oct 2025 - A-League
24 Oct 2025 - A-League
29 Jul 2025 - FFA Cup
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory FC Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
50 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 Nov 2025 - A-League
31 May 2025 - A-League
22 Feb 2025 - A-League
21 Dec 2024 - A-League
26 Oct 2024 - A-League
5 May 2024 - A-League
Melbourne City against Melbourne Victory FC Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
D. Ochsenham
DefenderP. Antoniou
L. Bonetig
B. Kutleshi
MidfielderB. Baker
M. Memeti
A. Nabbout
J. Warshawsky
DefenderJ. Inserra
L. Jackson
MidfielderK. Jelacic
M. Grimaldi
D. Genreau
J. Reec
Most goals and assists
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory FC
M. Caputo
(8 Goals)
N. Vergos
(7 Goals)
A. Kuen
(4 Assists)
J. Mata
(12 Assists)
Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory FC Key Points
- City’s last four competitive league games saw less than three goals scored.
- Victory failed to score in a league-high five of their eight matches this season.
- City’s league matches this season averaged 2.00 goals per game and only three teams have a lower average.
- Victory’s league games this season averaged 2.25 goals per game.
- Three of the last four games between these teams have produced under 2.5 goals.
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Our Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory FC Prediction
Victory are at the wrong end of the points table, but a win over Adelaide United last time out was the right preparation for the Christmas Derby. This is the penultimate game of the year, and they will be the ‘away’ team against derby rivals City but will look to address their scoring struggles. City have drawn in their latest fixture, and only two wins from their last five competitive games is a window of opportunity for Victory.
This match could be a cagey affair, and our Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory prediction is less than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Melbourne City Melbourne Victory FC
| Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory FC | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City wins | 1.75 | 2.2 | +25.7% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.6 | -4.0% |
| Melbourne Victory FC wins | 4 | 3.46 | -13.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Melbourne City is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 25.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 57.1% and is now 45.5% (-11.7%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
