Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1
France - Ligue 1
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by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions
Marseille will look to keep up with the title challengers this weekend when they host Toulouse in Ligue 1. The two sides are having contrasting campaigns, with Marseille second while Toulouse are 10th.
Let’s have a look at the match prediction below. Marseille are coming off a win in the Champions League, beating Newcastle United 2-1. They now have the chance to register a fourth straight win, having earlier beaten Nice and Brest.
A 5-1 victory at Nice in the last league match has Les Phoceens just two points behind PSG. In nine home matches, Marseille have seven wins, and among them was one against PSG.
Toulouse carries into this game a really poor run of form. The 1-0 defeat at Angers in the last outing means they are winless in the last five games.
Toulouse had a good patch in September to October, going undefeated in three matches, which included two wins. However, that disappeared when they faced Monaco, and it has been downward since.
Across their last 11 matches, les Violets have managed just two wins: at Lyon and against Metz. In their last 25 meetings with Marseille, they were winless, and across the last 10, they lost eight times.
Facing the second-best-performing home side doesn’t hold much promise for Toulouse.
Limited Offer. Currently at Bet365
The Best Betting Odds for Marseille v Toulouse Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.67 | 3.9 | 4.75 |
|
|
1.68 | 4.1 | 5.2 |
|
|
1.69 | 3.94 | 4.8 |
|
|
1.6 | 3.95 | 5.4 |
|
|
1.61 | 4.3 | 5.6 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Marseille and Toulouse?
Our prediction for the Marseille vs Toulouse match is: Marseille wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 29/11/2025 between Marseille and Toulouse in Ligue 1 :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 57.78% for a win of Marseille against Toulouse with odds of 1.7 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Marseille vs Toulouse is 22.1% with odds of 4.3 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 20.12% chance ⭐ for a win of Toulouse vs Marseille with odds of 5.6 at Tonybet.
Marseille - Toulouse Prediction and Best Odds:
| Marseille Toulouse Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 57.78% | 1.7 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.45% | 1.93 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 53.75% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Marseille/Marseille | 26.42% | 2.6 at Bet365 |
Marseille vs Toulouse Form
Marseille and Toulouse's standings in the Ligue 1
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
32 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | +19 |
|
8
|
23 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | +2 |
Marseille and Toulouse Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
21 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
18 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
2 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
19 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
2 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
19 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
27 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
30 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
21 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
14 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
Marseille vs Toulouse Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
31 Aug 2024 - Ligue 1
21 Apr 2024 - Ligue 1
17 Sept 2023 - Ligue 1
19 Feb 2023 - Ligue 1
29 Dec 2022 - Ligue 1
Marseille against Toulouse Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
J. De Lange
DefenderL. Balerdi
C. Egan-Riley
U. Garcia
MidfielderT. Mmadi
M. O'Riley
A. Vermeeren
G. Kondogbia
R. Vaz
A. Dominguez
K. Haug
DefenderW. Kamanzi
S. Koumbassa
MidfielderR. Messali
N. Lahmadi
ForwardJ. Vignolo
S. Hidalgo
N. Edjouma
Missing players
A. Murillo
F. Medina
MidfielderH. Traore
ForwardA. Gouiri
N. Schmidt
A. Francis
M. Sauer
ForwardI. Azizi
Most goals and assists
Marseille
Toulouse
M. Greenwood
(11 Goals)
Y. Gboho
(5 Goals)
P. Aubameyang
(5 Assists)
D. Sidibe
(3 Assists)
Marseille - Toulouse Key Points
- Toulouse are winless in 25 matches against Marseille.
- Marseille won eight of their last 10 meetings with Toulouse.
- Toulouse lost three of their last five away Ligue 1 matches.
- Marseille are the second-best-performing home team in the league.
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Our Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction
Marseille are unbeaten in Ligue 1 at home and will go into this game looking to maintain that. The chances of success are pretty high, seeing that they have dominated this fixture in the years past. Marseille are unbeaten in their last 25 meetings with Toulouse, and in the last 10 they posted eight wins.
Heading into this game, Toulouse are on a winless run of five matches, yet they face one of the best home teams currently. Our prediction for Marseille v Toulouse is that Marseille wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Marseille Toulouse
| Marseille vs Toulouse | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 1.76 | 1.7 | -3.4% |
| Draw | 4.04 | 4.3 | +6.4% |
| Toulouse wins | 5.05 | 5.6 | +10.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Marseille is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 3.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 56.8% and is now 58.8% (2.0%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Marseille vs. Toulouse game!
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Try your luck on this year's Ligue 1! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
