Marseille vs Lille Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1

Predictions Odds Live

France - Ligue 1

Marseille
22/03/2026 12:15
Lille

Prediction :

 

Under 2.5 goals

 
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 by Joseph King | in Ligue 1 Predictions

Eight matches remain in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season as Marseille hosts LOSC Lille for matchday 27. Les Dogues are sitting in fifth place on 44 points while Les Phoceens are third with 49 points. Check out our prediction below!

This is a crucial match in deciding placement for next season’s UEFA competitions. Marseille are currently leading the race for the final automatic entry into the league phase of the Champions League, but only a two-point lead over fourth-place Lyon means that could change in an instant.

L'OM have returned to winning ways following a difficult patch of form which saw them winless in four straight in Ligue 1, while also having been bounced from the French Cup by RC Lens. A 1-0 home win over Auxurre was their second victory in a row overall and their third straight in the league.

Three wins from their last four and a six-match unbeaten run in Ligue 1 has brought Les Dogues right back into contention for the UCL. They’ve narrowed the gap on Lyon to just two points ahead of this match while maintaining a slim one-point lead over sixth-place Monaco.

Lille were eliminated from the Europa League round of 16 after losing both legs to Aston Villa, the most recent of which was a 2-0 away defeat in the West Midlands.

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Marseille v Lille Best Betting Odds

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Stake
1.92 3.75 4.1
Melbet
1.9 3.64 3.96
Betwinner
1.88 3.66 4
Bet365
1.91 3.7 3.8
Roobet
1.89 3.55 3.95
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What is the prediction for the football match between Marseille and Lille?

Our prediction for the Marseille vs Lille match is: less than 2.5 goals.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/03/2026 between Marseille and Lille in Ligue 1 :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 43.37% for a win of Marseille against Lille with odds of 1.94 at 888Starz.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Marseille vs Lille is 27.86% with odds of 3.84 at 888Starz.
  • Our prediction model gives a 28.77% chance ⭐ for a win of Lille vs Marseille with odds of 4.2 at Tonybet.

Marseille - Lille Prediction and Best Odds:

Marseille Lille Prediction Probability Odds
Marseille wins 43.37% 1.94 at 888Starz
Under 2.5 54.56% 2.07 at Tonybet
Both Team To Score: No 56.67%
Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Marseille 17% 5.25 at LSbet

Marseille vs Lille Form

Marseille and Lille's standings in the Ligue 1

Teams Pts P W D L GD
3 Lille
61 34 18 7 9 +15
5 Marseille
59 34 18 5 11 +18

Marseille and Lille Last Matches

Marseille
Marseille Last matches
D L W D W W
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

13 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
1 :  0
Auxerre

7 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1

Toulouse
0 :  1
Marseille

4 Mar 2026 - French Cup

Marseille
2 :  2
Toulouse

1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
3 :  2
Lyon

20 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1

Brest
2 :  0
Marseille

14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
2 :  2
Strasbourg
W W D W D W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

13 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
1 :  0
Auxerre

4 Mar 2026 - French Cup

Marseille
2 :  2
Toulouse

1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
3 :  2
Lyon

14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
2 :  2
Strasbourg

3 Feb 2026 - French Cup

Marseille
3 :  0
Rennes

24 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
3 :  1
Lens
W L D L L W
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.67 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
2.33 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

7 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1

Toulouse
0 :  1
Marseille

20 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1

Brest
2 :  0
Marseille

8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1

PSG
5 :  0
Marseille

31 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1

Paris FC
2 :  2
Marseille

28 Jan 2026 - Champions League

Club Brugge
3 :  0
Marseille

17 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1

Angers
2 :  5
Marseille
Lille
Lille Last matches
W W D L W L
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.83 Total goals
33% BTTS
1 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

19 Mar 2026 - Europa League

Aston Villa
2 :  0
Lille

15 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1

Rennes
1 :  2
Lille

12 Mar 2026 - Europa League

Lille
0 :  1
Aston Villa

8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  1
Lorient

1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  0
Nantes

26 Feb 2026 - Europa League

Red Star Belgrade
0 :  2
Lille
W D L W D L
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.33 Total goals
33% BTTS
0.67 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
0% Over 2.5
100% Under 2.5

12 Mar 2026 - Europa League

Lille
0 :  1
Aston Villa

8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  1
Lorient

1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  0
Nantes

19 Feb 2026 - Europa League

Lille
0 :  1
Red Star Belgrade

14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  1
Brest

29 Jan 2026 - Europa League

Lille
1 :  0
Freiburg
L D W W W L
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.5 Total goals
17% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

19 Mar 2026 - Europa League

Aston Villa
2 :  0
Lille

15 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1

Rennes
1 :  2
Lille

26 Feb 2026 - Europa League

Red Star Belgrade
0 :  2
Lille

22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1

Angers
0 :  1
Lille

6 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1

Metz
0 :  0
Lille

1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1

Lyon
1 :  0
Lille

Marseille vs Lille Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Marseille

0 %

Draw

67 %

Lille

33 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

1.83
Total goals
66.67%
BTTS
0.67
Goals scored
1.17
Goals conceded
16.67%
Over 2.5
83.33%
Under 2.5

5 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  0
Marseille

4 May 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  1
Marseille

14 Jan 2025 - French Cup

Marseille
1 :  1
Lille

14 Dec 2024 - Ligue 1

Marseille
1 :  1
Lille

5 Apr 2024 - Ligue 1

Lille
3 :  1
Marseille

4 Nov 2023 - Ligue 1

Marseille
0 :  0
Lille
Marseille vs Lille Prediction

Marseille against Lille Lineups: Starting 11

Marseille

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
G. Rulli
22
T. Weah
5
L. Balerdi
32
F. Medina
33
Emerson
23
P. Hojbjerg
19
G. Kondogbia
10
M. Greenwood
27
Q. Timber
14
I. Paixao
17
P. Aubameyang
7
M. Fernandez-Pardo
27
F. Correia
10
H. Haraldsson
17
N. Mukau
6
N. Bentaleb
32
A. Bouaddi
24
C. Verdonk
23
A. Mandi
3
N. Ngoy
12
T. Meunier
1
B. Ozer

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Lille

Substitutes

Marseille
Marseille
Goalkeeper

J. De Lange

Defender

C. Egan Riley

B. Pavard

Midfielder

H. Traore

E. Nwaneri 75'

H. Abdelli

B. Nadir

Q. Timber 90'

N. Tocukvu

Forward

E. Nwaneri

M. Greenwood 18'

A. Gouiri

G. Kondogbia 65'

Lille
Lille
Goalkeeper

A. Bodart

B. Ozer 45'

Defender

Alexsandro

C. Mbemba

H. Haraldsson 90'

R. Perraud

C. Verdonk 78'

Midfielder

M. Broholm

L. Baret

Forward

O. Giroud

F. Correia 78'

N. Edjouma

S. Diaoune

Missing players

Marseille
Marseille
Defender

N. Aguerd

Lille
Lille
Defender

O. Toure

R. Fernandes

Midfielder

B. Andre

G. Perrin

O. Sahraoui

E. Mbappe

Forward

H. Igamane

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Marseille
CD Huachipato Lille
Top Goalscorer
England M. Greenwood (16 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Iceland H. Haraldsson (8 Goals) ,  Belgium M. Fernandez-Pardo (8 Goals)
Best assists
England M. Greenwood (8 Assists)
Best assists
Portugal F. Correia (5 Assists) , 
Belgium M. Fernandez-Pardo (5 Assists)

Marseille - Lille Key Points

  1. Lille have seen 11 of their last 12 across all competitions finish with under 2.5 goals.
  2. Lille have given up a goal or fewer in their last seven consecutive Ligue 1 matches.
  3. Marseille have kept back-to-back clean sheets, with both also finishing with under 2.5 goals.
  4. The last four straight meetings between these two teams have produced under 2.5 goals.
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Our Marseille vs Lille Prediction

Lille have turned a corner on the defensive side over the last 6 weeks and their current Ligue 1 unbeaten run has been built off of their sturdy rearguard.We don’t see much in this one either way, and a draw wouldn’t be a surprising result.

Recent history also points towards this being a tight match with three of the last four between these two ending in a draw, and all four of those seeing fewer than three goals scored. Our Marseille vs Lille prediction is less than 2.5 goals.

Prediction :

 

Under 2.5 goals

 
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Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Marseille Lille

Marseille vs Lille Opening odds Pre-match odds Odds Movements
Marseille wins 2.04 1.94 -4.9%
Draw 3.8 3.84 +1.1%
Lille wins 3.8 4.2 +10.5%
Latest odds movements:

After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:

  • Marseille is most likely to win
  • The odds for this bet have decreased by 4.9% since opening
  • The probability of this result was 49.0% and is now 51.5% (2.5%)

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.