Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
Atalanta are set for a second trip to France in the UEFA Champions League, this time to face Marseille as the league phase enters matchday four. In their first travel to France, the Italians suffered a 4-0 defeat to PSG. They will hope for a better return this time. Like their hosts, Atalanta are seeking their second win in the competition. Below we have the preview and a prediction of the match.
One place separates the teams in the league standings, Atalanta being 17th with four points while Marseille have three points. Going into what will only be their third meeting, Marseille will be looking to avenge their 4-1 aggregate loss in the 2023/24 Europa League semis.
However, the French side is winless in the latest nine meetings with Italian sides. They will look at their nine-match unbeaten home run in Europe for inspiration, though. For Atalanta, the loss to PSG meant they are winless in three away matches against French teams.
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The Best Betting Odds for Marseille v Atalanta Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.25 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.3 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.38 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
|
|
2.25 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.38 | 3.35 | 3 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Marseille and Atalanta?
Our prediction for the Marseille vs Atalanta match is: Marseille wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/11/2025 between Marseille and Atalanta in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45.19% for a win of Marseille against Atalanta with odds of 2.38 at William Hill.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Marseille vs Atalanta is 35.52% with odds of 3.5 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 19.29% chance ⭐ for a win of Atalanta vs Marseille with odds of 3.1 at Bet365.
Marseille - Atalanta Prediction and Best Odds:
| Marseille Atalanta Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 45.19% | 2.38 at William Hill |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.11% | 1.93 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | 1.62 at William Hill |
| Half-time / Full-time : Marseille/Marseille | 17.89% | 3.75 at Ladbrokes |
Marseille vs Atalanta Form
Marseille and Atalanta's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
16
|
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
|
25
|
3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Marseille and Atalanta Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
4 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
18 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
22 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
12 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - Serie A
28 Oct 2025 - Serie A
25 Oct 2025 - Serie A
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
19 Oct 2025 - Serie A
4 Oct 2025 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Oct 2025 - Serie A
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
19 Oct 2025 - Serie A
4 Oct 2025 - Serie A
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
14 Sept 2025 - Serie A
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - Serie A
25 Oct 2025 - Serie A
27 Sept 2025 - Serie A
21 Sept 2025 - Serie A
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
30 Aug 2025 - Serie A
Marseille vs Atalanta Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
50 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 May 2024 - Europa League
2 May 2024 - Europa League
Marseille - Atalanta: Form Analysis
Marseille’s 12th season in the Champions League hasn’t had the ideal start. The French giants have lost two of their first three matches.
They have a target to reach the knockouts for the first time since 2011/12, but this start puts that in jeopardy. On matchday one, Les Phoceens fell to Real Madrid before recovering with a 4-0 home win against Ajax.
In round three, though, they were beaten 2-1 in Lisbon by Sporting. Recent outings haven't been so fruitful for the hosts, but this Saturday they beat Auxerre 1-0 to end a three-match winless run.
Home form will be key for the French side, having gone unbeaten in the last six matches, including five wins.
Marseille have lost only two of their last 20 home games in Europe.
Atalanta have gone through October without recording a win, and returning to France to face one of the giants will not pass as a dream fixture. The Italian side suffered a 4-0 defeat to European champions PSG on matchday one.
Coming back, they won’t be facing a side as tough, but they have all the reasons to feel jittery. Their undefeated run in Serie A came tumbling down this past weekend, as they fell 1-0 at Udinese.
It wasn’t a solid run either way, as it was built on several draws. La Dea have featured in 13 competitive matches so far this season but has only won three. One of the wins was against Club Brugge on matchday two action in the Champions League.
They could only play to a 0-0 draw with Slavia Prague last time out.
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Marseille against Atalanta Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 5 - 4 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Missing players
F. Medina
L. Balerdi
Emerson
MidfielderH. Traore
G. Kondogbia
B. Nadir
ForwardA. Gouiri
T. Weah
G. Scalvini
Marseille & Atalanta Squad Analysis
Marseille are battling a serious injury crisis, which is not helped by the suspension of Italian defender Emerson. The former AS Roma man picked up two yellow cards in a span of six first-half minutes in the loss to Sporting CP. He will thus be among the 12 unavailable players for Roberto De Zerbi in this game.
Geoffrey Kondogbia’s season continues to be dogged with injury. He hasn’t kicked a ball since lasting 66 minutes against Real Madrid on matchday one. A calf injury has kept him out since, and this match comes too soon.
There’s some positive news, though, in the form of Igor Paixao. The Brazilian has 10 goal contributions in his last 12 Champions League matches.
Marseille manager Roberto De Zerbi is unbeaten in four against Atalanta’s Ivan Juric.
After his exile from the team, Nigerian international Ademola Lookman is back and scoring. He got his first goal of the season in the 1-1 draw with AC Milan at the end of October. He now looks to continue with his impressive form in Europe.
Last season he scored four times in the Champions League, while he had two goal contributions in 2023/24 as Atalanta dumped Marseille out of the Europa League. That same season he would score a hat trick in the Europa League final.
Most goals and assists
Marseille
Atalanta
M. Greenwood
(8 Goals)
L. Samardzic
(3 Goals)
P. Aubameyang
(5 Assists)
N. Krstovic
(3 Assists)
Marseille - Atalanta Key Points
- In 20 home matches in Europe, Marseille lost only twice.
- Away to French teams, Atalanta are winless in three games.
- Atalanta failed to win a single match in the month of October.
- Marseille are unbeaten in the last nine home matches in Europe.
- In their 13 matches this season, Atalanta managed just three wins.
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Our Marseille vs Atalanta Prediction
Marseille and Atalanta are both gunning for their second wins in the Champions League, but this favors the French side more. They started November on a high, ending a three-match winless run, and now get to play at home, where they’ve done well this season.
In 14 of 15 competitive home matches, Marseille avoided defeat. Atalanta failed to win a game in October, and then November started on a low, with a 1-0 loss to Udinese. This will not be an easy game by any means, but our prediction for Marseille v Atalanta is that Marseille wins.
Marseille vs Atalanta - Other Interesting Predictions
More than 2.5 goals
Two of Atalanta’s opening three Champions League matches produced over 2.5 goals. On the other hand, all of Marseille’s three matches so far have been high-scoring, hitting at least three goals. Seven of Marseille’s last eight matches in all competitions also produced three or more goals.
The French side scored 17 times in the last five home matches, and based on these numbers, our second prediction here is for more than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Marseille Atalanta
| Marseille vs Atalanta | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 2 | 2.25 | +12.5% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.5 | -6.7% |
| Atalanta wins | 3.5 | 3.1 | -11.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Marseille is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 12.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 50.0% and is now 44.4% (-5.6%)
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Marseille vs Atalanta match : Frequently asked questions
The Marseille v Atalanta match will be played at the Stade Velodrome.
The Marseille v Atalanta match will be played on Wednesday, 5th November.
The Marseille v Atalanta match will be aired live on Canal+ for French audiences. Those watching from Italy can catch the game on Sky and Amazon Prime. SportyTrader will have the match updates for this and other Champions League matches.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
