Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik Prediction & Betting Tips - Hong Kong Open
ATP - Hong Kong Open
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Tennis Predictions
It's one of those cases where the numbers don't lie, as the two highest-ranked players are the finalists here in the 2026 Hong Kong Open. Now, Lorenzo Musetti and Alexander Bublik face off for the fourth time in their career, and for the first time, the winner walks away with the Tour title. Let's get into this match prediction.
Musetti’s brilliant 2-1 comeback over the 2024 champion Andrey Rublev has just booked him a place in the final. This marks Musetti’s farthest point in this tournament after finishing in the RO16 in 2024 and the quarterfinals in the following year.
Before the ATP Finals, Musetti also made it to the Athens Open, and this game provides him a chance at redemption to end his four-year title drought. But Alexander Bublik will be having other plans as he searches for his ninth career title. The world no.11 is making his first appearance in the Hong Kong Open, and doing it in style with a place booked in the final.
His comeback against Marcos Giron in the last round marked 13 wins in his last 18 singles. And that run saw him win the Hangzhou Open in September last year. 2025 also marked the best year for Bublik, as he lifted four of his eight ATP Tour singles titles in that calendar year.
Limited Offer. Currently at Bet365
The Best Betting Odds for Lorenzo Musetti v Alexander Bublik Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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2 | 1.8 |
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2.01 | 1.8 |
|
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1.97 | 1.77 |
|
|
1.96 | 1.77 |
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|
2.01 | 1.8 |
|
Who will win the Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik match is: Bublik wins.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik game on 11/01/2026 of the current Hong Kong Open season:
- Lorenzo Musetti has a 40.92% chance to win against Alexander Bublik according to Shangrila ⭐ with the odds of 2.02.
- Alexander Bublik has a 59.08% probability of winning facing Lorenzo Musetti ⭐ with odds of 1.8 at Bet365.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Lorenzo Musetti has a 40.92 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Lorenzo Musetti | 40.92 % |
| Alexander Bublik | 59.08 % |
Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik Form
Lorenzo Musetti and Alexander Bublik Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
10 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
9 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
7 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
13 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals
11 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals
10 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
10 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
9 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
8 Jan 2026 - Hong Kong Open
5 Nov 2025 - Moselle Open
1 Nov 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
31 Oct 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
11 Jan 2024 - Adelaide International
Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Bublik Key Points
- Bublik is 2-1 in his H2H versus Musetti.
- Musetti's only win against Bublik was a retired game where the Italian led the third set by one game only.
- Bublik won four ATP titles last year and seven since his first in 2022.
- Musetti hasn't lifted a title since his double in 2022.
- Bublik edges in hardcourt win rate (56.06%) over Musetti (55.47%) while playing 136 more games (more than double).
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Our Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik Prediction
Bublik is the favourite to win according to the betting odds, and for very good reasons. It's just his first Hong Kong Open, and he has already made it to the final. He’s on course to win his ninth title after winning all four finals he appeared in last year.
And to top it off, he already has a better record in their H2H, with his only loss to Musetti coming due to retirement when he was only down one game in the last set. Hence, our Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik prediction is that Bublik wins.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
