Lille vs Marseille Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1

Predictions Odds Live

France - Ligue 1

Lille
05/12/2025 15:00
Marseille

Prediction :

 

Draw

 
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 by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions

Third-placed Marseille will hope to mask last week’s disappointment in Ligue 1 when they travel to fourth-placed Lille. The two sides are three points apart heading into this match, and below we have a prediction.

Lille recorded a second straight clean sheet in their last outing as they beat Le Havre on the road. It was also Les Dogues’ third straight win. They will come into this game fired up after avoiding defeat to Marseille in the last six meetings.

In that run, however, they only won once in regular time. Four defeats in their last nine matches put a dent in their recent form, and Lille will be craving consistency here.

Marseille are on a good run but will come here disappointed by their latest result. After battling from a losing position, Les Phoceens conceded late in their last game to draw 2-2 with Toulouse.

That result denied them the chance to go top of the standings off the back of PSG’s loss to Monaco. Roberto de Zerbi’s men will hope to make up for the miss here, as they are now two points off the summit.

They are unbeaten in the last five Ligue 1 matches and will hope this helps improve their recent run against Lille. Marseille’s only win in 11 meetings with Lille dates back to 2022.

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Lille v Marseille Best Betting Odds

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Stake
2.39 3.55 2.95
Melbet
2.48 3.48 2.76
Betwinner
2.36 3.48 2.93
Bet365
2.38 3.5 2.9
Roobet
2.34 3.4 2.92
Check all Lille vs Marseille odds

What is the prediction for the football match between Lille and Marseille?

Our prediction for the Lille vs Marseille match is: draw.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/12/2025 between Lille and Marseille in Ligue 1 :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 41.52% for a win of Lille against Marseille with odds of 2.48 at Melbet.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lille vs Marseille is 20.32% with odds of 3.63 at 888Starz.
  • Our prediction model gives a 38.17% chance ⭐ for a win of Marseille vs Lille with odds of 3.08 at 888Starz.

Lille - Marseille Prediction and Best Odds:

Lille Marseille Prediction Probability Odds
Lille wins 41.52% 2.48 at Melbet
Over 2.5 goals 64.57% 1.98 at Bet365
Both Team To Score 64.17%
Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Lille 18.42% 6 at Bet365

Lille vs Marseille Form

Lille and Marseille's standings in the Ligue 1

Teams Pts P W D L GD
3 Lille
61 34 18 7 9 +15
5 Marseille
59 34 18 5 11 +18

Lille and Marseille Last Matches

Lille
Lille Last matches
W L L W W W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
17% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

30 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Le Havre
0 :  1
Lille

27 Nov 2025 - Europa League

Lille
4 :  0
GNK Dinamo Zagreb

23 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
4 :  2
Paris FC

9 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Strasbourg
2 :  0
Lille

6 Nov 2025 - Europa League

Red Star Belgrade
1 :  0
Lille

2 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  0
Angers
D L W W W W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
3.17 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

27 Nov 2025 - Europa League

Lille
4 :  0
GNK Dinamo Zagreb

23 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
4 :  2
Paris FC

2 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  0
Angers

26 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
6 :  1
Metz

23 Oct 2025 - Europa League

Lille
3 :  4
PAOK Thessaloniki

5 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  1
PSG
W W L L L W
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.5 Total goals
0% BTTS
0.67 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
0% Over 2.5
100% Under 2.5

30 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Le Havre
0 :  1
Lille

9 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Strasbourg
2 :  0
Lille

6 Nov 2025 - Europa League

Red Star Belgrade
1 :  0
Lille

29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1

Nice
2 :  0
Lille

19 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1

Nantes
0 :  2
Lille

2 Oct 2025 - Europa League

Roma
0 :  1
Lille
Marseille
Marseille Last matches
W L W W W D
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
50% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Marseille
2 :  2
Toulouse

25 Nov 2025 - Champions League

Marseille
2 :  1
Newcastle

21 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Nice
1 :  5
Marseille

8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Marseille
3 :  0
Brest

5 Nov 2025 - Champions League

Marseille
0 :  1
Atalanta

1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Auxerre
0 :  1
Marseille
W D L W W D
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.83 Total goals
67% BTTS
2.5 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

29 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Marseille
2 :  2
Toulouse

25 Nov 2025 - Champions League

Marseille
2 :  1
Newcastle

8 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Marseille
3 :  0
Brest

5 Nov 2025 - Champions League

Marseille
0 :  1
Atalanta

29 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1

Marseille
2 :  2
Angers

18 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1

Marseille
6 :  2
Le Havre
W W L L W W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
67% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

21 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Nice
1 :  5
Marseille

1 Nov 2025 - Ligue 1

Auxerre
0 :  1
Marseille

25 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1

Lens
2 :  1
Marseille

22 Oct 2025 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
2 :  1
Marseille

4 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1

Metz
0 :  3
Marseille

26 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1

Strasbourg
1 :  2
Marseille

Lille vs Marseille Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Lille

33 %

Draw

67 %

Marseille

0 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.17
Total goals
83.33%
BTTS
1.33
Goals scored
0.83
Goals conceded
33.33%
Over 2.5
66.67%
Under 2.5

4 May 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  1
Marseille

14 Jan 2025 - French Cup

Marseille
1 :  1
Lille

14 Dec 2024 - Ligue 1

Marseille
1 :  1
Lille

5 Apr 2024 - Ligue 1

Lille
3 :  1
Marseille

4 Nov 2023 - Ligue 1

Marseille
0 :  0
Lille

20 May 2023 - Ligue 1

Lille
2 :  1
Marseille

Lille against Marseille Lineups: Starting 11

Lille

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
B. Ozer
12
T. Meunier
3
N. Ngoy
23
A. Mandi
15
R. Perraud
21
B. Andre
6
N. Bentaleb
10
H. Haraldsson
8
E. Mbappe
11
O. Sahraoui
29
H. Igamane
17
P. Aubameyang
14
I. Paixao
10
M. Greenwood
33
Emerson
18
A. Vermeeren
19
G. Kondogbia
22
T. Weah
21
N. Aguerd
5
L. Balerdi
28
B. Pavard
1
G. Rulli

Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1

Marseille

Substitutes

Lille
Lille
Goalkeeper

A. Bodart

Defender

M. Goffi

C. Mbemba

Midfielder

M. Broholm

N. Mukau

E. Mbappe 70'

A. Gomes

H. Haraldsson 84'

Forward

O. Giroud

H. Igamane 26'

F. Correia

O. Sahraoui 70'

M. Fernandez

Marseille
Marseille
Goalkeeper

J. De Lange

Defender

C. Egan-Riley

A. Murillo

Midfielder

M. O'Riley

B. Nadir

G. Kondogbia 80'

D. Bakola

B. Pavard 66'

A. Gomes

T. Mmadi

I. Paixao 80'

Forward

R. Vaz

P. Aubameyang 66'

Missing players

Lille
Lille
Goalkeeper

M. Caillard

Defender

C. Verdonk

A. Ribeiro

O. Toure

R. Fernandes

Midfielder

A. Bouaddi

Marseille
Marseille
Defender

F. Medina

Midfielder

H. Traore

Forward

A. Gouiri

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Lille
CD Huachipato Marseille
Top Goalscorer
Iceland H. Haraldsson (8 Goals) , 
Belgium M. Fernandez (8 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
England M. Greenwood (16 Goals)
Best assists
Portugal F. Correia (5 Assists) , 
Belgium M. Fernandez (5 Assists)
Best assists
England M. Greenwood (8 Assists)

Lille - Marseille Key Points

  1. Lille failed to win in four of their last nine outings.
  2. Marseille are winless in five of their last nine matches.
  3. Five draws were registered in these teams’ last 10 meetings.
  4. Away from home in the last 13 games, Marseille only won five.
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Our Lille vs Marseille Prediction

These two sides are building momentum as they set targets for European football next season. However, both teams’ results haven't been all consistent, and that could play out again here. Marseille, for example, was expected to blow away Toulouse last week to go top of the standings but could only draw.

Lille, on their part, have a record of struggling against the top teams, and this match fits that profile. As most of their latest meetings have seen spoils shared, we will back the same here. Our prediction for Lille v Marseille is a draw.

Prediction :

 

Draw

 
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Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Lille Marseille

Lille vs Marseille Opening odds Pre-match odds Odds Movements
Lille wins 2.45 2.48 +1.2%
Draw 3.56 3.63 +2.0%
Marseille wins 2.75 3.08 +12.0%
Latest odds movements:

After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:

  • Lille is most likely to win
  • The odds for this bet have increased by 1.2% since opening
  • The probability of this result was 40.8% and is now 40.3% (-0.5%)

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Lille vs Marseille Prediction