Lille vs Aston Villa Prediction & Betting Tips - Europa League
Europe - Europa League
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Europa League Predictions
Aston Villa have a tough match in the Europa League as they travel to Lille for the first leg of their last 16 tie. The two sides are meeting for the first time since facing off in the UEFA Conference League quarter-finals in 2024. Back then the two went all the way to penalties following a 3-3 aggregate result. Let’s take a look at the predicrion for their next assignment as they meet up at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Lille booked their place here after eliminating Crvena Zvezda in the knockout round playoffs. Four wins in their last nine matches indicate they may still be struggling, but Lille have two wins in the last three matches in this competition. They are also unbeaten in the last four games.
Aston Villa, on the other hand, are going through a very tough period. Unai Emery’s men have failed to win any of their last four games, losing three.
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Lille v Aston Villa Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.3 | 3.25 | 2.31 |
|
|
3.26 | 3.24 | 2.28 |
|
|
3.26 | 3.24 | 2.28 |
|
|
3.3 | 3.2 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.25 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Lille and Aston Villa?
Our prediction for the Lille vs Aston Villa match is: Lille wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/03/2026 between Lille and Aston Villa in Europa League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 32.51% for a win of Lille against Aston Villa with odds of 3.4 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lille vs Aston Villa is 29.22% with odds of 3.37 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 38.27% chance ⭐ for a win of Aston Villa vs Lille with odds of 2.36 at 888Starz.
Lille - Aston Villa Prediction and Best Odds:
| Lille Aston Villa Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 38.27% | 2.36 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 66.67% | 2.15 at LSbet |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Aston Villa/Aston Villa | 16.47% | 3.75 at Bet365 |
Lille vs Aston Villa Form
Lille and Aston Villa Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
26 Feb 2026 - Europa League
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Feb 2026 - Europa League
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
1 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
19 Feb 2026 - Europa League
14 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
25 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Feb 2026 - Europa League
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
6 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
16 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
27 Feb 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
Lille vs Aston Villa Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
18 Apr 2024 - Conference League
11 Apr 2024 - Conference League
Lille - Aston Villa: Form Analysis
Lille have gone through their darkest moments and are just emerging again. In their last four matches, Lille have taken points from three wins and a draw. They will be disappointed at having conceded a late leveler against Lorient in the last game.
Lille had earlier won three straight matches with clean sheets and have had five shutouts in the last nine outings. It is, however, at home that Lille have had most of their recent struggles. Les Dogues have managed just two wins in their latest eight home games. The other half consists of four defeats.
Villa’s last elimination from Europe was against a French team – PSG.
Aston Villa did not need to go through the knockout playoffs, having finished second in the league phase. However, they are desperate for a return to winning ways. In their last four, they were winless, having lost three.
The Lions have enjoyed a week-long rest after their 4-1 defeat to Chelsea in the Premier League. The defeat put them in danger of missing out on the Champions League slots. The loss also means they will be fired up for this game as they seek Europa League success to plug on just in case.
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Lille against Aston Villa Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
Z. Lanssade
A. Bodart
DefenderA. Ribeiro
N. Ngoy
C. Verdonk
T. Meunier
A. Bouaddi
S. Boussadia
ForwardF. Correia
M. Fernandez
N. Edjouma
S. Diaoune
J. Wright
M. Bizot
DefenderI. Maatsen
T. Mings
V. Lindelof
MidfielderH. Elliott
A. Garcia
J. McGinn
L. Bailey
T. Abraham
Missing players
M. Caillard
DefenderO. Toure
R. Fernandes
MidfielderO. Sahraoui
M. Broholm
E. Mbappe
ForwardH. Igamane
M. Cash
K. Nedeljkovic
MidfielderY. Tielemans
B. Kamara
Lille & Aston Villa Squad Analysis
Lille are a very attacking side and will want to bring out that side of their game. In their last starting lineup, only one player had zero G/A in the league; that was right-back Tiago Santos. The Portuguese defender has an assist in the Europa League, though.
In attack, Lille have several options, and one that sticks out is Benjamin Andre, who was also on target the last time these two teams met. At 35, Andre may not be a starter here, but when it gets desperate, he will be a good option, as he also guns for a third goal in this competition.
Ollie Watkins has nine goal contributions for Aston Villa this season.
Villa’s extended period of rest will help with player recovery, as at the moment it is only Matty Cash who is expected to be the fresh injury. A few others, including John McGinn, are lined up for late tests. The Premier League side will, however, be desperately hoping that Morgan Rogers finds his scoring boots.
The England international has scored just once in seven games since Villa’s last Europa League game. When scoring or assisting for club and country, Rogers hasn’t been on the losing side in 17 appearances. He has 17 G/A for his club in all competitions this season.
Most goals and assists
Lille
Aston Villa
O. Giroud
(4 Goals)
, 
H. Igamane
(4 Goals)
J. McGinn
(5 Goals)
, 
O. Watkins
(5 Goals)
F. Correia
(2 Assists)
, 
T. Meunier
(2 Assists)
, 
H. Haraldsson
(2 Assists)
M. Rogers
(5 Assists)
, 
E. Buendia
(5 Assists)
Lille - Aston Villa Key Points
- Lille are undefeated in four matches, winning three.
- Lille avoided defeat in four of their last five home games.
- In these teams’ last meeting, Lille emerged the winner.
- Aston Villa are winless in their last four games, losing three.
- Across their last seven matches, Aston Villa won once.
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Our Lille vs Aston Villa Prediction
Lille won the last time they hosted this encounter and will be gunning for the same here. Boosted by their recent performances, Lille will be confident of improving on their 1-1 draw with Lorient last time out.
They are facing an Aston Villa side that has been on the decline in recent times, and the French side should claim the first-leg advantage. Villa, on three defeats in four matches, look short on confidence. They will hope to do better here, but there aren’t many guarantees for Unai Emery’s men. Our prediction for Lille v Aston Villa is that Lille wins.
Lille vs Aston Villa Alternative Predictions
Less than 2.5 goals
Our second prediction here is for under 2.5 goals. Lille have been keeping it tight defensively in recent times and come here on three clean sheets in four games. They haven't conceded more than a goal in their last nine matches, all of which had under 2.5 goals.
Meanwhile, the slump at Villa means they haven't scored more than a goal in their latest seven matches either. We, therefore, could be looking at a low-scoring match here.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Lille Aston Villa
| Lille vs Aston Villa | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille wins | 2.9 | 3.4 | +17.2% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.37 | +2.1% |
| Aston Villa wins | 2.37 | 2.36 | -0.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Aston Villa is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 0.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 42.2% and is now 42.4% (0.2%)
Lille vs Aston Villa - FAQs
The Lille v Aston Villa match will be played on Thursday, 12th March.
The Lille v Aston Villa match will be played at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy Stadium in France.
Fans residing in the UK will be able to watch this game via TNT Sports, while in France, Canal+ will have the feed. On SportyTrader, you will be able to catch the updates for this and other Europa League games.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
