Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Borussia Dortmund will look to continue their impressive Bundesliga form as they visit an up-and-down Leipzig on matchday 23. This match in Leipzig between the fifth-placed ‘Red Bulls’ and the second-placed ‘Prussians’ comes with our prediction of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals produced.
With 40 points from 22 matches (W12, D4, L6), Leipzig start this round two points behind fourth but only one point above sixth. Dortmund’s 51 points (W15, D6, L1) keep them six points behind Bayern and six points above Hoffenheim.
Leipzig drew 2-2 at home against Wolfsburg last week, with a late 88th minute saving a point for the Red Bulls. That extends their indifferent form, as Leipzig have won only three of their last ten league games (D2, L5).
The hosts have struggled at home recently, losing three of their last five Bundesliga matches played here (W1, D1).
The reverse fixture ended 1-1 in October, but Dortmund arrive here with better form. They defeated Atalanta 2-0 at home in the midweek Champions League fixture for a fourth win in a row in all competitions.
They have six wins in a row in the league and only two less than the club record. They could be challenged on the road, though, as Dortmund have won only four of their last eight away league games (D3, L1).
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Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.1 | 3.95 | 3.2 |
|
|
2.08 | 3.86 | 3.2 |
|
|
2.1 | 3.88 | 3.14 |
|
|
2 | 3.9 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.06 | 3.85 | 3.1 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund?
Our prediction for the Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund match is: BTTS and over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/02/2026 between Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 31.63% for a win of Leipzig against Borussia Dortmund with odds of 2.16 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund is 23.59% with odds of 4.1 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 44.78% chance ⭐ for a win of Borussia Dortmund vs Leipzig with odds of 3.3 at Bet365.
Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Best Odds:
| Leipzig Borussia Dortmund Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 44.78% | 3.3 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.56% | |
| Both Team To Score | 66.25% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Borussia Dortmund | 17.12% | 8.25 at LSbet |
Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Form
Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
73 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | +36 |
|
3
|
65 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | +19 |
Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
8 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
27 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
8 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
27 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
13 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
13 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
9 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
17 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Nov 2024 - Bundesliga
27 Apr 2024 - Bundesliga
9 Dec 2023 - Bundesliga
5 Apr 2023 - DFB Pokal
Leipzig against Borussia Dortmund Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 3 - 2 - 2
Substitutes
L. Zingerle
DefenderM. Finkgrafe
E. Bitshiabu
B. Henrichs
E. Banzuzi
T. Gomis
J. Bakayoko
A. Nusa
C. Harder
A. Meyer
DefenderE. Benkara
Y. Couto
S. Ozcan
C. Chukwuemeka
J. Brandt
K. Adeyemi
F. Silva
S. Inacio
Missing players
P. Gulacsi
MidfielderA. Ouedraogo
V. Gebel
ForwardS. Suleiman
N. Sule
N. Schlotterbeck
F. Mane
MidfielderE. Can
Most goals and assists
Leipzig
Borussia Dortmund
C. Baumgartner
(13 Goals)
S. Guirassy
(17 Goals)
D. Raum
(7 Assists)
, 
Y. Diomande
(7 Assists)
J. Ryerson
(15 Assists)
Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund Key Points
- Seven of Leipzig’s last nine Bundesliga matches saw both teams score goals.
- Seven of Leipzig’s last ten home league games saw both teams score and produced over 2.5 goals.
- Two of Dortmund’s last three league games saw both teams score and over 2.5 goals produced.
- In five of Dortmund’s last six away league matches, both teams scored goals.
- Seven of the last ten Bundesliga matches between these sides produced BTTS and over 2.5 goals.
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Our Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Leipzig were once running Bayern Munich close but now find themselves outside the top four. In fact, with only one point behind and a game in hand, Bayer Leverkusen are breathing down their neck. Dortmund are now the closest challengers to Bayern and will look to continue their push. There’s still work to do on their away form, as they have just four wins from their last eight Bundesliga trips.
This fixture has historically entertained with goals, and that’s why our Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund prediction is BTTS and over 2.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Leipzig Borussia Dortmund
| Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leipzig wins | 2.5 | 2.16 | -13.6% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 4.1 | +12.3% |
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 2.5 | 3.3 | +32.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Borussia Dortmund is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 32.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.0% and is now 30.3% (-9.7%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
