Leeds vs Sunderland Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Premier League Predictions
It’s a battle between two of the three newly promoted sides of the 2025-26 English Premier League (EPL) as matchday 29 sees Leeds United host Sunderland. This match at Elland Road on Tuesday between the 15th-placed Whites and the 12th-placed Black Cats comes with our prediction of more than 2.5 goals.
Ahead of this round, Leeds have 31 points (W7, D10, L11) and are six points above the relegation zone. Sunderland have 37 points (W9, D10, L9) and are eight points adrift of the European qualification spots. The hosts have built up a buffer with the danger zone, thanks to their improving form at home in recent weeks. Even the defeat to title challengers Manchester City last weekend didn’t dampen the spirits of the home faithful.
Sunderland were chasing the top six not long ago, and although theoretically they still have a chance, they may settle for a mid-table position. They would love to address their shortcomings on the road, but this venue may prove to be tricky for the Black Cats. Can Leeds continue their impressive home record? Read more for our predictions, team news, and match predictions.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Leeds v Sunderland Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.86 | 3.55 | 4.6 |
|
|
1.83 | 3.5 | 4.54 |
|
|
1.81 | 3.46 | 4.7 |
|
|
1.83 | 3.4 | 4.33 |
|
|
1.83 | 3.4 | 4.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Leeds and Sunderland?
Our prediction for the Leeds vs Sunderland match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 03/03/2026 between Leeds and Sunderland in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45.37% for a win of Leeds against Sunderland with odds of 1.88 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Leeds vs Sunderland is 31.55% with odds of 3.6 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 23.08% chance ⭐ for a win of Sunderland vs Leeds with odds of 4.88 at 888Starz.
Leeds - Sunderland Prediction and Best Odds:
| Leeds Sunderland Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds wins | 45.37% | 1.88 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 51.41% | 2.03 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 53.33% | |
| Half-time: Sunderland / Full-time: Leeds | 16.41% | 28 at LSbet |
Leeds vs Sunderland Form
Leeds and Sunderland's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
54 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | -6 |
|
14
|
47 | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | -7 |
Leeds and Sunderland Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
6 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
6 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
26 Jan 2026 - Premier League
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2 Feb 2026 - Premier League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Dec 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
24 Jan 2026 - Premier League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
Leeds vs Sunderland Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
50 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
28 Dec 2025 - Premier League
17 Feb 2025 - Championship
4 Oct 2024 - Championship
9 Apr 2024 - Championship
12 Dec 2023 - Championship
19 Aug 2017 - Championship
Leeds - Sunderland: Form Analysis
Leeds were beaten 1-0 at home last Saturday by Manchester City in a game that had the home team getting frustrated by City’s time-wasting towards the end. Coach Daniel Farke even received a red card, as Leeds lost their third league game in their last 15 EPL matches (W4, D8).
The defeat was the second in their last three home league games (W1), but both those came against the current top two teams in the Premier League. Leeds further boast of three wins in five home league matches (D2) prior to this run of three games.
Leeds have scored at least three goals in four of their last eight home league games.
Sunderland failed to hold on to their lead, drawing 1-1 at Bournemouth on Saturday. It helped end a three-game losing streak, but the Black Cats will still be worried that they have just two wins over their last 12 Premier League games (D5, L5).
Sunderland’s story this season has been impressive, but their away record is anything but that. They have failed to win any of their last nine away EPL matches (D4, L5), including three defeats in their last four trips.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Leeds against Sunderland Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
L. Perri
DefenderJ. Bijol
S. Bornauw
MidfielderS. Longstaff
A. Tanaka
ForwardG. Wilfried
J. Piroe
D. James
L. Nmecha
S. Moore
DefenderJ. Jones
MidfielderC. Talbi
C. Rigg
H. Jones
G. Xhaka
W. Isidor
M. Aleksic
B. Traore
Missing players
N. Okafor
R. Mandava
MidfielderR. Mundle
J. Bi
ForwardB. Brobbey
Leeds & Sunderland Squad Analysis
Noah Okafor remains Leeds’ only injury absence ahead of this fixture. That could be a huge boost for manager Farke, who could be tempted to stick with the same formation, although recalling Lukas Nmecha could be an option.
That will see Nmecha start up front along with Dominic Calvert-Lewin in a 3-5-2 formation, although they have been lining up in a more defensive 5-4-1 recently. Calvert-Lewin is their top scorer with ten EPL goals, but Nmecha could reduce some burden.
Nmecha has six Premier League goals this season.
Sunderland have a lengthier absence list with the likes of Nordi Mukiele, Dennis Cirkin, and Romaine Mundle, along with Brian Brobbey, unavailable for the visitors.
The Black Cats have usually lined up with four at the back, resorting to 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 formation. Either way, it could be Eliezer Mayenda leading the line for the visitors. He scored their goal against Bournemouth, and the Spanish forward would be desperate to make it two in two games.
Most goals and assists
Leeds
Sunderland
D. Calvert-Lewin
(14 Goals)
B. Brobbey
(7 Goals)
B. Aaronson
(5 Assists)
E. Le Fee
(7 Assists)
Leeds - Sunderland Key Points
- Nine of the last 12 home EPL games featuring Leeds produced over 2.5 goals.
- Three of Leeds’ last five Premier League matches have seen at least four goals scored.
- Six of Sunderland’s last eight Premier League games have produced three or more goals.
- Sunderland conceded three goals in three of their last four away league matches.
- Two of the last three matches between Sunderland and Leeds have seen at least three goals scored.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Leeds vs Sunderland Prediction
Six points separate these two sides, which were promoted together from the Championship last season. The situation is slightly trickier for Leeds, who are closer to the relegation zone, but they have been a tough team to face at home recently. Only two teams have been able to take full points from a Premier League match at this venue since December, and those teams are Arsenal and Manchester City.
Sunderland may struggle to break that record, but value is in backing an open game. That’s why our Leeds vs Sunderland prediction is more than 2.5 goals.
Leeds vs Sunderland Alternative Predictions
Leeds wins
Leeds have four wins from their last eight home league games, losing only twice, that too to Arsenal and Manchester City. Sunderland have been struggling in recent times, losing three of their last four EPL games. Additionally, they have five defeats and four draws from their last nine Premier League trips. This could be good news for the home fans.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Leeds Sunderland
| Leeds vs Sunderland | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds wins | 2.05 | 1.88 | -8.3% |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.6 | +1.1% |
| Sunderland wins | 4.05 | 4.88 | +20.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Leeds is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 8.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 48.8% and is now 53.2% (4.4%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Leeds vs. Sunderland game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Leeds and Sunderland when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on Premier League!
Leeds vs Sunderland - FAQs
The Leeds vs Sunderland English Premier League match will be shown live on TNT Sports 2 in the UK.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our English Premier League Livescore page!
The Elland Road faithful will be hosting Sunderland in a Premier League home game for the first time since August 2002. Sunderland won that fixture 1-0, and the home fans would definitely be gunning for revenge, especially since Leeds have won their other four home matches against Sunderland in the EPL.
This fixture sees two of the three newly promoted sides, and there’s an interesting trend going around. Five of the last six EPL matches between such teams have been won by the home side of the day (D1).
If the home fans are looking for more historic comforts, Leeds have 19 wins and three draws from their last 22 league matches played at home in evening games (7 pm or later).
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
