Leeds vs Aston Villa Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
Leeds United’s next battle for breathing room in the bottom half of the Premier League standings comes in the form of Aston Villa, who arrive at Elland Road on Sunday afternoon. The Whites are 16th in the league standings, while the Villans are sixth after 11 games this season. Check out our match prediction below!
The international break may have come at just the right time for Daniel Farke, as it would have given him time to reassess tactics after seeing his side slide to 16th, just one point above the dotted line. However, the Peacocks have not fared well against teams in the upper echelons of the table, failing to win any of their last 17 matches versus sides in the top half of the standings (D6 L11).
Unai Emery, on the other hand, has got his side back into European qualification territory, and with a little bit of luck in results elsewhere, the Lions could end this weekend in the top three. The Spanish tactician has never been beaten by a newly promoted side in the Prem, and Villa have only lost once in their last 11 visits to Elland Road. To the key stats!
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The Best Betting Odds for Leeds v Aston Villa Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.2 | 3.3 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.3 | 3.35 | 2.33 |
|
|
3.22 | 3.32 | 2.26 |
|
|
3.15 | 3.3 | 2.24 |
|
|
3.25 | 3.4 | 2.33 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Leeds and Aston Villa?
Our prediction for the Leeds vs Aston Villa match is: Aston Villa draw no bet.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 23/11/2025 between Leeds and Aston Villa in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 26.51% for a win of Leeds against Aston Villa with odds of 3.3 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Leeds vs Aston Villa is 34.88% with odds of 3.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 38.6% chance ⭐ for a win of Aston Villa vs Leeds with odds of 2.56 at 888Starz.
Leeds - Aston Villa Prediction and Best Odds:
| Leeds Aston Villa Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 38.6% | 2.56 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 53.79% | 2 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 57.08% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Aston Villa | 20.21% | 5.5 at Bet365 |
Leeds vs Aston Villa Form
Leeds and Aston Villa's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
43 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | +9 |
|
16
|
22 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 |
Leeds and Aston Villa Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Nov 2025 - Premier League
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
24 Oct 2025 - Premier League
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
27 Sept 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Oct 2025 - Premier League
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
27 Sept 2025 - Premier League
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
18 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Nov 2025 - Premier League
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
20 Sept 2025 - Premier League
13 Sept 2025 - Premier League
26 Aug 2025 - Carabao Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Nov 2025 - Premier League
6 Nov 2025 - Europa League
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
26 Oct 2025 - Premier League
23 Oct 2025 - Europa League
19 Oct 2025 - Premier League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Nov 2025 - Premier League
6 Nov 2025 - Europa League
26 Oct 2025 - Premier League
5 Oct 2025 - Premier League
28 Sept 2025 - Premier League
25 Sept 2025 - Europa League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
23 Oct 2025 - Europa League
19 Oct 2025 - Premier League
2 Oct 2025 - Europa League
21 Sept 2025 - Premier League
16 Sept 2025 - Carabao Cup
Leeds vs Aston Villa Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
13 Jan 2023 - Premier League
2 Oct 2022 - Premier League
10 Mar 2022 - Premier League
9 Feb 2022 - Premier League
27 Feb 2021 - Premier League
23 Oct 2020 - Premier League
Leeds - Aston Villa: Form Analysis
After a positive start to the season, picking up seven points from their first five games (W2 D1 L2), Leeds United have endured a dip in form since then, earning just four points from their last six matches.
The Whites suffered a 3-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest ahead of the international break, marking their fourth loss in five games. They also conceded two or more goals in each of those defeats.
However, eight of the hosts’ 11 (72%) points this season have come on their home patch. They’ve only been defeated once in five home games since returning to the top flight (W2 D2 L1).
Leeds United are winless in their last five league games against this opponent (D2 L3)!
In contrast, after failing to win any of their first five league games this season, Aston Villa are now trending upward, having secured five victories in their last six league matches.
The Villans smashed in four goals without response against Bournemouth before the break, while the only league defeat they have conceded since the end of September was at Anfield.
The visitors will now be looking to take their momentum on the road, where they’ve only managed one league win in five away games this season and failed to score in three of those matches.
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Players list
L. Perri
DefenderJ. Bogle
J. Rodon
P. Struijk
G. Gudmundsson
E. Ampadu
MidfielderS. Longstaff
A. Stach
B. Aaronson
ForwardL. Nmecha
N. Okafor
E. Martinez
DefenderM. Cash
E. Konsa
P. Torres
L. Digne
MidfielderJ. McGinn
B. Kamara
Y. Tielemans
E. Buendia
ForwardM. Rogers
O. Watkins
Substitutes
K. Darlow
DefenderJ. Justin
J. Bijol
MidfielderI. Gruev
A. Tanaka
J. Piroe
D. Calvert-Lewin
D. James
G. Wilfried
M. Bizot
DefenderI. Maatsen
V. Lindelof
MidfielderG. Hemmings
R. Barkley
L. Bogarde
D. Malen
E. Guessand
J. Sancho
Leeds & Aston Villa Squad Analysis
Leeds had several players away on international duty over the last fortnight, but the Whites have returned unscathed, meaning only long-term absentees Sebastiaan Bornauw and Wilfried Gnonto will miss this match.
Lukas Nmecha was handed his first start since August against Forest last time out and got on the scoresheet inside the first 15 minutes, which should see him given the nod to lead the line again.
If you fancy a goal-scorer punt at long odds, Joe Rodon could be an option, with the centre-back scoring two of Leeds’ 10 goals this season - both of which came in their last three home games.
Youri Tielemans is expected to make his first league start since the end of August!
The Belgian midfielder has missed over a month of action through injury, but has come off the bench in the last two matches and may have to lock down midfield with his compatriot Amadou Onana flagged as a doubt.
Onana, Matty Cash, Lamare Bogarde and Ezri Konsa were all left out of their final matches on international duty due to fitness-related issues and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
Cash has been excellent in an attacking sense for the Lions this season, attempting at least one shot at goal in each of his last seven league games from right-back. Tyrone Mings and Andres Garcia are longer-term absentees for the visitors.
Most goals and assists
Leeds
Aston Villa
D. Calvert-Lewin
(9 Goals)
O. Watkins
(7 Goals)
,
M. Rogers
(7 Goals)
B. Aaronson
(3 Assists)
M. Rogers
(4 Assists)
, 
Y. Tielemans
(4 Assists)
Leeds - Aston Villa Key Points
- Leeds United have lost four of their last five league games.
- Leeds United conceded three goals in each of their last two league matches.
- Aston Villa have won five of their last six league games.
- Aston Villa kept three clean sheets in their last four matches in all competitions.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last five league games against this opponent.
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Our Leeds vs Aston Villa Prediction
After a bright start to the season, Leeds United have now lost four of their last five games and have slipped to 16th place in the league standings. They could end this weekend in the drop zone if they lose this match.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, have notched up five wins in their last six league matches and are unbeaten in their last five at Elland Road. We fancy the visitors to take the points here, but we’ll opt for a safety net, given the hosts' home record this term. Our Leeds United vs Aston Villa prediction is Aston Villa draw no bet.
Leeds vs Aston Villa - Other Interesting Predictions
Both teams to score
Leeds United’s last three home games have ended with both teams scoring, and they have only failed to find the target in one of their five league matches at Elland Road this term. Aston Villa conceded two goals in each of their last two away games in all competitions.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Leeds Aston Villa
| Leeds vs Aston Villa | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds wins | 2.9 | 3.3 | +13.8% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.4 | +1.5% |
| Aston Villa wins | 2.55 | 2.56 | +0.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Aston Villa is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 0.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 39.2% and is now 39.1% (-0.2%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Leeds vs. Aston Villa game!
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Leeds vs Aston Villa - FAQs
The Premier League match between Leeds and Aston Villa will take place on November 23 at 14:00 GMT.
The Premier League match between Leeds and Aston Villa will be played at Elland Road in West Yorkshire.
The Premier League match between Leeds and Aston Villa will be broadcast live on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can keep up with all the action using our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
