Leeds vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Premier League Predictions
Premier League leaders Arsenal can go seven points clear if they can win away at Leeds United on Saturday. Leeds are 16th in the table but won't be easy opponents for the Gunners. Time for our match prediction.
Leeds United are six points above the relegation zone but considerably higher in a form guide for the last ten Premier League fixtures. They will need to continue their good recent form if they want to avoid an immediate return to the Championship. The Whites have a poor record against Arsenal. They last beat them in 2003 and will be attempting on Saturday to prevent an eighth successive loss to Arsenal.
The Gunners lost 3-2 at home to Manchester United last Sunday. They returned to winning ways on Wednesday with a 3-2 home win over Kairat in the Champions League. That solid defence of theirs is being breached a lot more than in the early part of the season and this will be tough at Leeds.
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Leeds v Arsenal Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.2 | 4.3 | 1.57 |
|
|
6.6 | 4.24 | 1.5 |
|
|
6.3 | 4.2 | 1.52 |
|
|
5.5 | 4.2 | 1.57 |
|
|
6.2 | 4.1 | 1.53 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Leeds and Arsenal?
Our prediction for the Leeds vs Arsenal match is: both teams score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 31/01/2026 between Leeds and Arsenal in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 21.18% for a win of Leeds against Arsenal with odds of 6.6 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Leeds vs Arsenal is 22.87% with odds of 4.37 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 55.95% chance ⭐ for a win of Arsenal vs Leeds with odds of 1.58 at 888Starz.
Leeds - Arsenal Prediction and Best Odds:
| Leeds Arsenal Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 55.95% | 1.58 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.32% | 1.93 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 74.17% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Arsenal/Arsenal | 23.73% | 2.5 at Bet365 |
Leeds vs Arsenal Form
Leeds and Arsenal's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
85 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 |
|
14
|
47 | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | -7 |
Leeds and Arsenal Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jan 2026 - Premier League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
23 Nov 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jan 2026 - Premier League
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Dec 2025 - Premier League
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
8 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
23 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
Leeds vs Arsenal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
1 Apr 2023 - Premier League
16 Oct 2022 - Premier League
8 May 2022 - Premier League
18 Dec 2021 - Premier League
26 Oct 2021 - Carabao Cup
Leeds - Arsenal: Form Analysis
Leeds United are unbeaten in their last three EPL fixtures. Their most recent game saw them go ahead at Everton on Monday but only return home with a point. A win over Arsenal will take them nine points clear of the bottom three and with a next game at home to Notts Forest.
United have earned 15 points from their last ten league games. That puts them sixth in a form guide for that number of league fixtures, only five fewer than Arsenal have earned. Leeds have won five of their 11 home league games and are unbeaten in their last five.
Away form is going to be vital for Arsenal.
Three of Arsenal's next four league games are being played away from home. They begin the weekend with a four point lead at the top of the Premier League. It could be a healthier lead but only a couple of points have been earned in their last three fixtures.
On the road this season, Arsenal have won six out of 11 and possess the best away record in the Premier League. Their most recent away league game saw them draw 0-0 at Nottingham Forest. That extended their unbeaten away league run to seven games.
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Leeds against Arsenal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
L. Perri
DefenderS. Bornauw
S. Byram
MidfielderS. Longstaff
A. Tanaka
F. Buonanotte
N. Okafor
J. Piroe
G. Wilfried
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderC. Mosquera
R. Calafiori
B. White
MidfielderE. Eze
C. Norgaard
M. Odegaard
G. Jesus
G. Martinelli
Missing players
J. Bijol
ForwardD. James
L. Nmecha
M. Merino
ForwardB. Saka
Leeds & Arsenal Squad Analysis
Arsenal may have been playing in the Champions League on Wednesday but a weakened line-up was fielded by Arteta. You can fully expect their top players to make their return for this Premier League trip to Elland Road.
The list of returnees should include Jurrien Timber and William Saliba. Arsenal's defence was difficult to score against in the early weeks of this season. That's not quite so now with at least a couple of goals conceded in two of their last four EPL games but also a couple of clean sheets.
Leeds United were in the relegation zone a few months ago. A change of format to 3-5-2 and some good results has boosted their confidence. Their six-point lead over the relegation zone can swiftly be narrowed though so United have to keep earning points.
Calvert-Lewin needs to start scoring again.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored six times for Leeds in the final two months of 2025. He's not been able to maintain his good scoring form with just a single goal coming in his last five games. Finding his scoring boots again would be great news for the Whites.
Both Daniel James and Gabriel Gudmundsson may be ready to make their returns this weekend. Not such good news is the absence of defender Jaka Bijol who is expected to miss the next month.
Most goals and assists
Leeds
Arsenal
D. Calvert-Lewin
(14 Goals)
V. Gyokeres
(14 Goals)
B. Aaronson
(5 Assists)
L. Trossard
(6 Assists)
, 
M. Odegaard
(6 Assists)
Leeds - Arsenal Key Points
- Three of the last five matches between these two clubs have seen both teams score.
- Both teams have scored in nine of Arsenal's last 11 games in all competitions.
- Four of Arsenal's last six away games have seen both teams score.
- Both teams have scored in 12 of the last 14 games Leeds have played.
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Our Leeds vs Arsenal Prediction
Leeds United have become a difficult side to beat in recent months. Only one of their last ten league games has been lost with six ending in a draw. They could do with Calvert-Lewin rediscovering the form he was in at the end of last year but this isn't an easy game for Arsenal.
A win at Elland Road is needed by Arsenal as they have gone three league games without a victory. The midweek win was a good one for them but with a much-changed line-up. Our main Leeds v Arsenal prediction is both teams score.
Leeds vs Arsenal Alternative Predictions
Most goals in second half
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Leeds Arsenal
| Leeds vs Arsenal | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds wins | 6.05 | 6.6 | +9.1% |
| Draw | 3.86 | 4.37 | +13.2% |
| Arsenal wins | 1.59 | 1.58 | -0.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 0.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 62.9% and is now 63.3% (0.4%)
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Leeds vs Arsenal - FAQs
Leeds United are home to Arsenal on Saturday January 31. This Premier League fixture is due to kick-off at 15:00 UK time.
This is a Saturday 15:00 UK time match so will not be shown live on television. You can follow all that’s happening at Elland Road by going to our Premier League livescore with the latest statistics and live text commentary.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
