KKS Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction & Betting Tips - Conference League
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by Thobelani Moyo | in Conference League Predictions
Lech Poznan and Shakhtar Donetsk are set to clash at Stadion Poznan in the UEFA Europa Conference League Round of 16 first leg. The two sides have never met in a competitive match before, so this marks their first-ever meeting. Read on for our match prediction.
The Polish side are back in the UEFA Europa Conference League Round of 16 for the first time in three years. The aim is to replicate their past performance, which saw them reach the quarter-finals, but first, they need to dismantle the threat of Shakhtar Donetsk in a two-legged playoff.
Shakhtar Donetsk holds an impressive record against Polish opposition, winning two of their last three competitive meetings. They've met Lech Poznan four times. However, neither of those meetings was competitive. Still, they were the dominant side with three wins (D1) and will want to build on that dominance to secure their ticket to the quarter-finals, where they'll face AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Prague.
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KKS Lech Poznan v Shakhtar Donetsk Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.55 | 3.45 | 2.8 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.3 | 2.74 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.3 | 2.74 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.4 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.35 | 2.7 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between KKS Lech Poznan and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our prediction for the KKS Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Donetsk match is: Shakhtar Donetsk wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/03/2026 between KKS Lech Poznan and Shakhtar Donetsk in Conference League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 30.58% for a win of KKS Lech Poznan against Shakhtar Donetsk with odds of 2.65 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between KKS Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Donetsk is 15.69% with odds of 3.45 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 53.73% chance ⭐ for a win of Shakhtar Donetsk vs KKS Lech Poznan with odds of 2.8 at Stake.
KKS Lech Poznan - Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction and Best Odds:
| KKS Lech Poznan Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk wins | 53.73% | 2.8 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.95% | 1.93 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Shakhtar Donetsk | 28.78% | 6.75 at LSbet |
KKS Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Donetsk Form
KKS Lech Poznan and Shakhtar Donetsk Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Ekstraklasa
4 Mar 2026 - Polish Cup
1 Mar 2026 - Ekstraklasa
26 Feb 2026 - Conference League
22 Feb 2026 - Ekstraklasa
19 Feb 2026 - Conference League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Polish Cup
1 Mar 2026 - Ekstraklasa
26 Feb 2026 - Conference League
15 Feb 2026 - Ekstraklasa
31 Jan 2026 - Ekstraklasa
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Ekstraklasa
22 Feb 2026 - Ekstraklasa
19 Feb 2026 - Conference League
7 Feb 2026 - Ekstraklasa
3 Feb 2026 - Ekstraklasa
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
27 Feb 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
5 Feb 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
14 Dec 2025 - Ukrainian Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Feb 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
5 Feb 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
14 Dec 2025 - Ukrainian Premier League
1 Dec 2025 - Ukrainian Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
6 Dec 2025 - Ukrainian Premier League
27 Nov 2025 - Conference League
22 Nov 2025 - Ukrainian Premier League
29 Oct 2025 - Ukraine Cup
KKS Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Donetsk Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
25 Jan 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
KKS Lech Poznan - Shakhtar Donetsk: Form Analysis
Lech Poznan finished outside the top eight in the UEFA Europa Conference League - league phase. They settled for 11th place with ten points and were two points shy of eighth-placed AEK Larnaca.
In the knockout playoffs, they were pitted against Finnish opposition KuPS. They were successful in the first leg, winning 2-0 on the road, and followed up with a 1-0 home victory in the return leg, thereby progressing to the Round of 16.
There are growing concerns about their ability to secure a first-leg advantage, considering their shaky domestic form. After a 1-0 home defeat to Gornik Zabrze in the Polish Cup, the Railwaymen dropped points in a 2-1 away loss against Widzew Lodz in the Ekstraklasa
This is the first-ever competitive meeting between these two sides.
Shakhtar Donetsk will be hoping to capitalise on that poor display. The Ukrainian side comes into this match in terrific form, having avoided defeat in 13 competitive games across all competitions.
Regarding their performance in the UEFA Europa Conference League, they reached the Round of 16 by finishing inside the top eight in the league phase standings - the bare minimum of reaching the knockout stages proper.
Their last match in this competition was a goalless home draw against Croatia's Rijeka in the league phase. That result extended their unbeaten run to four matches (W3, D1).
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KKS Lech Poznan against Shakhtar Donetsk Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
M. Pruchniewski
P. Andreev
DefenderM. Skrzypczak
J. Moutinho
R. Gumny
MidfielderP. Walemark
T. Ouma
G. Thordarson
ForwardY. Agnero
T. Ismaheel
K. Fesiun
DefenderIrakli Azarov
Y. Konoplya
MidfielderL. dos Santos Ferreira
M. Gomes
Isaque
A. Bondarenko
M. Shved
Y. Nazaryna
L. Traore
P. Obah
Luca Meirelles
KKS Lech Poznan & Shakhtar Donetsk Squad Analysis
Lech Poznan have two players in the injury room, including Radoslaw Murawski and Filip Jagiello. Murawski is a long-term absentee and is currently undergoing surgery, which is muscle-related.
If there is one player who can trouble Shakhtar Donetsk's defense, then it has to be Mikael Ishak. The Swedish international is the joint third top scorer in the Ekstraklasa with 12 goals.
Now, the question is: can he deliver in the UEFA Europa Conference League Round of 16? The answer to that is a definite yes. Ishak finished as the joint top scorer in the league phase (GF 5). He also added two crucial assists in this competition, against KuPS in the knockout playoffs, which led to the team's 2-0 win in the first leg.
Mikael Ishak has been involved in seven goal contributions in this competition.
Shakhtar Donetsk have no new injury concerns heading into this clash, other than long-term absentee Danylo Udod.
The Ukrainian side had the fifth-best defensive record in the Conference League - league phase standings. The engineers behind this were Mykola Matviienko and Valeriy Bondar, while Pedro Henrique and Vinicius Tobias provided support as fullbacks.
The burden now lies on Lassina Traore to deliver the goals. Traore has been involved in four goal contributions in his last three matches. He will be itching to score his first goal in this competition after missing earlier matches due to injury.
Most goals and assists
KKS Lech Poznan
Shakhtar Donetsk
M. Ishak
(8 Goals)
Luca Meirelles
(3 Goals)
,
Alisson
(3 Goals)
T. Ismaheel
(3 Assists)
K. Elias
(4 Assists)
KKS Lech Poznan - Shakhtar Donetsk Key Points
- Lech Poznan have lost their last two matches across all competitions.
- Shakhtar Donetsk have won their last three across all competitions.
- Shakhtar Donetsk have won their last two matches against Polish opposition.
- Shakhtar Donetsk have won their last three away matches in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
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Our KKS Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction
Lech Poznan have been dominant at home this season, particularly in the UEFA Europa Conference League, where they remain unbeaten in four games. However, their recent form in all competitions has been cause for concern, suffering back-to-back losses.
That slight dip in form could be favourable for Shakhtar Donetsk, which has maintained a 100% away record in this competition. This is a tough one to call, but the Ukrainian side should be able to walk away unscathed. Our Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk wins.
KKS Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Donetsk Alternative Predictions
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Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis KKS Lech Poznan Shakhtar Donetsk
| KKS Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| KKS Lech Poznan wins | 2.75 | 2.65 | -3.6% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.45 | +3.0% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk wins | 2.44 | 2.8 | +14.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Shakhtar Donetsk is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 14.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 41.0% and is now 35.7% (-5.3%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
