Qarabag FK vs Newcastle Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Champions League Predictions
Newcastle will travel to Qarabag FK for an early kickoff game on the second day of the Champions League Playoff round. While The Magpies will be looking for a clean sweep, The Horsemen will fancy their chances at home after an impressive league phase. See our best bet in this match prediction!
The grass is steadily getting greener for Newcastle, who just beat Tottenham in the EPL before knocking Aston Villa out of the FA Cup. That streak follows a string of five consecutive winless games, which featured four defeats. The turnaround comes just in time for a crucial UCL clash to decide who will reach the RO16. The Magpies were widely impressive in the league phase, having lost only two of eight games while winning four.
Likewise, Qarabag were just as impressive after qualifying with their underdog status. The Horsemen won three games, which is just one fewer than Newcastle. And Qarabag did bag wins against Benfica, Copenhagen, and Frankfurt, which makes them a legitimate threat to a travelling Newcastle side. Still, against tough opposition like Liverpool, Napoli, and Athletic Club, Qarabag folded, losing all four games by 2+ goals.
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Qarabag FK v Newcastle Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.8 | 5.4 | 1.41 |
|
|
7 | 5.15 | 1.39 |
|
|
7 | 5.15 | 1.39 |
|
|
7.5 | 5.25 | 1.36 |
|
|
7 | 4.9 | 1.42 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Qarabag FK and Newcastle?
Our prediction for the Qarabag FK vs Newcastle match is: Over 2.5 Goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/02/2026 between Qarabag FK and Newcastle in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 43.53% for a win of Qarabag FK against Newcastle with odds of 7.5 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Qarabag FK vs Newcastle is 15.14% with odds of 5.4 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 41.33% chance ⭐ for a win of Newcastle vs Qarabag FK with odds of 1.45 at 888Starz.
Qarabag FK - Newcastle Prediction and Best Odds:
| Qarabag FK Newcastle Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Qarabag FK wins | 43.53% | 7.5 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.13% | |
| Both Team To Score | 64.29% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Qarabag FK | 16.98% | 16 at LSbet |
Qarabag FK vs Newcastle Form
Qarabag FK and Newcastle Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Topaz Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Topaz Premier League
5 Feb 2026 - Azerbaijan Cup
1 Feb 2026 - Topaz Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Topaz Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2026 - Topaz Premier League
24 Jan 2026 - Topaz Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
14 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
3 Dec 2025 - Azerbaijan Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Topaz Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Topaz Premier League
5 Feb 2026 - Azerbaijan Cup
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
Qarabag FK - Newcastle: Form Analysis
The form dynamics for both sides make this game even more interesting.
Qarabag, who enters as the heavy underdog, has been quite consistent in recent games and is just four points off the top in the Misli Premier League.
The Horsemen are on two consecutive wins and have nine wins in their last 13 games.
The trend at home is even more convincing, with Qarabag winning seven of its last nine games.
But things haven't been so rosy at home, as Qarabag has won only one of its last six games, losing four.
On the other end, Newcastle just ended their bad spell with two important wins over rivals Tottenham and Aston Villa.
However, it's still worth noting that The Magpies have only won three of their last seven games in all competitions, showcasing some major volatility.
But in the Champions League, which is arguably Newcastle’s most important tournament today, they've only been beaten twice in eight games.
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Qarabag FK against Newcastle Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
A. Ramazanov
F. Buntic
DefenderT. Bayramov
Daniel
S. Mmaee
A. Huseynov
B. Huseynov
H. Jabrayilzade
O. Kashchuk
ForwardM. Qurbanly
E. Addai
Kady
A. Ramsdale
A. Harris
J. Ruddy
DefenderA. Murphy
L. Shahar
MidfielderJ. Ramsey
J. Murphy
W. Osula
S. Neave
Joelinton
Missing players
F. Schar
E. Krafth
MidfielderB. Guimaraes
L. Miley
Qarabag FK & Newcastle Squad Analysis
If Qarabag is still in the competition, then much of the credit has to go to Camilo Duran for his crucial goal contributions.
The Colombian netted a goal and assisted in The Horsemen's opening day win over Benfica, ultimately setting up Qarabag for success.
Duran’s brace against Frankfurt was also the difference in Qarabag's third and final win of the UCL league phase. But while Qarabag praises its star forward, Newcastle have goalkeeper Nick Pope to thank.
Pope is SofaScore’s highest player for Newcastle, after keeping four clean sheets and bagging an assist versus Benfica.
Yet another player who stole the show, and will likely be a major threat to Qarabag, is Anthony Gordon.
The Englishman is joint fourth in UCL goals (6) and joint second in G/A (8) so far. To put it into context, Gordon has provided as many goals and assists as Harry Kane in this tournament.
Most goals and assists
Qarabag FK
Newcastle
C. Duran
(5 Goals)
A. Gordon
(10 Goals)
E. Jafarguliyev
(3 Assists)
J. Murphy
(3 Assists)
,
K. Trippier
(3 Assists)
,
H. Barnes
(3 Assists)
Qarabag FK - Newcastle Key Points
- Newcastle scored 17 goals in eight UCL games, averaging 2.1 goals per game.
- Qarabag conceded the joint-second most goals in the UCL so far (21), conceding 2.6 per game.
- Newcastle created the 7th-most big chances in this UCL campaign (27).
- Six of Qarabag’s eight UCL games finished with over 2.5 goals.
- Newcastle’s last five games in all competitions ended with over 2.5 goals.
- 11 of Qarabag’s last 14 games in all competitions ended with over 2.5 goals.
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Our Qarabag FK vs Newcastle Prediction
We should be in for another goal fest in this game between Qarabag and Newcastle. The Horsemen, in particular, are very vulnerable at the back, and underlined by their league phase defensive performances, which saw them concede the second-most goals.
In addition, Newcastle are firing freely in this tournament, having averaged 2.1 goals over eight games. What's more, offensive and defensive trends from recent games for both teams also suggest a high-scoring game. Hence, our Qarabag FK vs Newcastle prediction is Over 2.5 Goals.
Qarabag FK vs Newcastle Alternative Predictions
Newcastle wins & over 1.5
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Qarabag FK Newcastle
| Qarabag FK vs Newcastle | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabag FK wins | 8 | 7.5 | -6.3% |
| Draw | 4.75 | 5.4 | +13.7% |
| Newcastle wins | 1.36 | 1.45 | +6.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Qarabag FK is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 6.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 12.5% and is now 13.3% (0.8%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
