Europe - Champions League
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Champions League Predictions
In a tricky visit on matchday four of the league phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League, Chelsea will be up against surprise package Qarabag on Wednesday. This match between the 13th-placed ‘Horsemen’ and the 11th-placed ‘Blues’ at the neutral venue in Baku comes with our prediction of both teams scoring goals.
Both teams have six points from their first three matches, and the hosts have been a surprise package in the league phase. Qarabag are already in the midst of their best start to a Champions League campaign, and extending that with a win here will further cement their credentials as underdogs.
Chelsea have been stacking up some impressive wins and have six victories from their last seven competitive games. A win here will put them in the mix to finish in the top eight, which could be the bare minimum that they are likely to target. Can the visitors add a win from this trip? Read more about our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
The Best Betting Odds for Qarabag FK v Chelsea Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7.5 | 5.5 | 1.33 |
|
|
10 | 5.5 | 1.33 |
|
|
8 | 5 | 1.35 |
|
|
8.5 | 5.75 | 1.3 |
|
|
9.5 | 5.5 | 1.3 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Qarabag FK and Chelsea?
Our prediction for the Qarabag FK vs Chelsea match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/11/2025 between Qarabag FK and Chelsea in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 37% for a win of Qarabag FK against Chelsea with odds of 10 at Betfred.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Qarabag FK vs Chelsea is 13.23% with odds of 5.75 at Betway.
- Our prediction model gives a 49.77% chance ⭐ for a win of Chelsea vs Qarabag FK with odds of 1.35 at William Hill.
Qarabag FK - Chelsea Prediction and Best Odds:
| Qarabag FK Chelsea Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 49.77% | 1.35 at William Hill |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.36% | 1.46 at Bwin |
| Both Team To Score | 41.67% | 1.83 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time / Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea | 20.42% | 1.91 at Bet365 |
Qarabag FK vs Chelsea Form
Qarabag FK and Chelsea's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
12
|
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
|
15
|
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Qarabag FK and Chelsea Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
26 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
17 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
4 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
26 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
4 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
26 Sept 2025 - Topaz Premier League
12 Sept 2025 - Topaz Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
17 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
21 Sept 2025 - Topaz Premier League
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
31 Aug 2025 - Topaz Premier League
19 Aug 2025 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
29 Oct 2025 - Carabao Cup
25 Oct 2025 - Premier League
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Oct 2025 - Premier League
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - Premier League
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
29 Oct 2025 - Carabao Cup
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
23 Sept 2025 - Carabao Cup
20 Sept 2025 - Premier League
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
Qarabag FK vs Chelsea Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Nov 2017 - Champions League
12 Sept 2017 - Champions League
Qarabag FK - Chelsea: Form Analysis
Qarabag have six points from three matches in the league phase (W2, L1). They won 3-2 away at Benfica and 2-0 at home against Copenhagen in the first two games. It was a 3-1 loss at Athletic Club on matchday three that set the alarm bells.
The hosts won 2-0 last week in the domestic league game, which marks their seventh win in their last nine competitive matches (W7, D1, L1). Qarabag come here with a six-game unbeaten run at home (W4, D2) and will hope to turn things around at the neutral venue.
Qarabag kept five consecutive clean sheets at home.
Chelsea started their league phase campaign with a 3-1 away defeat at Bayern Munich but revived their season with consecutive home wins. They defeated Benfica 1-0 and thrashed Ajax 5-1 on matchday three to deliver a statement victory.
The Blues come here after a 1-0 away win over Tottenham, which made it six wins in their last seven competitive matches (W6, L1). Chelsea also have been impressive on the road, winning their last four away matches in all competitions.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Qarabag FK against Chelsea Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Qarabag FK & Chelsea Squad Analysis
Qarabag have no injury concerns, which is a big positive for the Azerbaijani hosts. There are doubts, however, over the availability of striker Musa Qurbanly as he gets treated for a knock on his knee.
The hosts have usually lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Nariman Akhundzade likely to lead the line. He has three goals and two assists to his name this season, while Abdellah Zoubir has five goals and three assists playing on the left flank in the three-man midfield.
Qarabag’s Leandro Andrade has scored all five of his goals in Europe this season.
Chelsea have only a few absences to handle, with Cole Palmer being the most prominent, along with Levi Colwill. Liam Delap will return to the squad after missing the weekend win over Tottenham.
Coach Maresca is likely to rotate the squad, although he’s unlikely to go away from his 4-2-3-1 system. Joao Pedro and Pedro Neto will be key in the three-man attacking midfield for their hopes of finding goals. Pedro has six goals this season, while Neto has five to his name this season.
Most goals and assists
Qarabag FK
Chelsea
Estevao
(4 Goals)
, 
M. Caicedo
(4 Goals)
, 
E. Fernandez
(4 Goals)
M. Jankovic
(1 Assists)
, 
C. Duran
(1 Assists)
, 
A. Zoubir
(1 Assists)
R. James
(4 Assists)
Qarabag FK - Chelsea Key Points
- Nine of Chelsea’s last 12 matches in all competitions saw both teams score goals.
- In six of their last eight away matches in all competitions, Chelsea saw BTTS.
- Two of Chelsea’s three Champions League matches this season saw BTTS.
- In six of their last seven home matches in all competitions, Qarabag scored goals.
- Qarabag scored in all three of their Champions League league phase matches this season.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Qarabag FK vs Chelsea Prediction
The fact that Qarabag and Chelsea have near-identical records in the Champions League after three matches tells the story. The Azerbaijani hosts have been one of the surprise packages of the season, although the English Premier League visitors are a different proposition. Chelsea have a strong squad that is showing its versatility in getting goals all across the pitch. Their backline is a concern, though, as they continue to leak goals.
This match could see action from both teams, and that’s why our Qarabag FK vs Chelsea prediction is BTTS.
Qarabag FK vs Chelsea - Other Interesting Predictions
Chelsea to win and BTTS
Six wins out of the last seven competitive matches they played is an indicator of Chelsea’s strong form coming here. The Blues have been impressive on the road too, winning four competitive trips in a row. Qarabag may be dreaming of an upset win, but Chelsea have the right squad to get full points here, although not without conceding goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Qarabag FK Chelsea
| Qarabag FK vs Chelsea | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabag FK wins | 8.5 | 7.5 | -11.8% |
| Draw | 5 | 5.5 | +10.0% |
| Chelsea wins | 1.36 | 1.33 | -2.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Chelsea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 73.5% and is now 75.2% (1.7%)
Win free tickets to Qarabag FK vs. Chelsea at Bet365!
With the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 season starts, bet365 offers free tickets for their users, including Qarabag FK vs. Chelsea match!
To be in with a chance of winning tickets to any of the UEFA Champions League matchdays throughout the 2025/26 season, all fans must do is enter into the free-to-enter weekly ticket draws on the bet365 website or app*.
*Entrants must be 18+ and UK residents, with a bet365 account. All entrants will be subjectto vetting to ensure they are compliant with responsible gambling guidelines.
Qarabag FK vs Chelsea match : Frequently asked questions
The Qarabag FK vs Chelsea UEFA Champions League match is set to be shown on TNT Sports and TNT Sports Ultimate TV channels in the UK. The game will also be available for streaming via Discovery+ for fans who have purchased the subscription option. In Kazakhstan, Quest Media and Qazsport are the official broadcasters.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our UEFA Champions League Livescore page!
These two clubs met in the group stage of the 2017-18 UEFA Champions League, when Chelsea won 6-0 at home and 4-0 away from home.
Those were not the only reverses for Qarabag against English teams, with the Kazakhs losing all their previous seven such games. That included losing the last six without scoring, so the hosts are definitely up against the tide.
Let’s start with Qarabag FK. They will next face – in that order – Napoli (away), Ajax (home), Eintracht Frankfurt (home), and Liverpool (away).
Chelsea will play Barcelona (home), Atalanta (away), Pafos (home), and Napoli (away).
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
