Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
Qarabag have a good chance to improve their Champions League qualification hopes. After five games of the league phase, they are 19th in the table and on Wednesday, host bottom-placed Ajax. Read our match prediction below.
After making their way through the qualifying rounds, Qarabag's good early season form continued when they won their first two league phase games. The following three have only produced a single point, though that was a creditable home draw against Chelsea. They currently reside in the unseeded play-off positions but are only a point behind the seeded places. The problem is they are only a point above the 25th place that would end their campaign.
Ajax are rooted to the bottom of the table. Each of their first five games in the league phase have ended in defeat with just one goal scored. They are yet to appoint a new coach after the previous one was sacked last month. Ajax are six points adrift of the unseeded play-off places.
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The Best Betting Odds for Qarabag FK v Ajax Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.91 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
|
|
2.05 | 3.5 | 3.25 |
|
|
2 | 3.75 | 3.3 |
|
|
1.95 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
|
|
1.89 | 3.9 | 3.75 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Qarabag FK and Ajax?
Our prediction for the Qarabag FK vs Ajax match is: Qarabag wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/12/2025 between Qarabag FK and Ajax in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 49.63% for a win of Qarabag FK against Ajax with odds of 2.05 at Betfred.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Qarabag FK vs Ajax is 21.72% with odds of 3.94 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 28.65% chance ⭐ for a win of Ajax vs Qarabag FK with odds of 3.75 at Unibet.
Qarabag FK vs Ajax Form
Qarabag FK and Ajax's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
19
|
7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
|
36
|
0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -15 |
Qarabag FK and Ajax Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Azerbaijan Cup
29 Nov 2025 - Topaz Premier League
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
21 Nov 2025 - Topaz Premier League
9 Nov 2025 - Topaz Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Dec 2025 - Azerbaijan Cup
29 Nov 2025 - Topaz Premier League
9 Nov 2025 - Topaz Premier League
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
31 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
26 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
21 Nov 2025 - Topaz Premier League
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
17 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
21 Sept 2025 - Topaz Premier League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
9 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
18 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2025 - Eredivisie
9 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
26 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
Qarabag FK vs Ajax Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
24 Oct 2024 - Europa League
Qarabag FK - Ajax: Form Analysis
With just one point from their last three league phase fixtures, Qarabag really need a home win over Ajax. They opened up with two victories over Benfica and Copenhagen and that took them into the automatic qualification positions
Their unbeaten league record ended away at Athletic Bilbao but they then drew 2-2 at home with Chelsea, trailing and leading in that game. Their most recent Champions League game saw them lose 2-0 at Napoli.
After this home game against Ajax, Qarabag host Eintracht Frankfurt before a final game away at Liverpool. They are top of the Azerbaijan Premier League and are unbeaten in their last ten home games with nine clean sheets.
Ajax are yet to score from open play in the league phase.
Ajax desperately need to win this match. No points, one goal (a penalty at Chelsea) and 16 conceded is their miserable record in this league phase. Last month saw them sack their coach and there has been some improvement in the Dutch Eredivisie.
They come into this match having won their last two league games and are fourth in their domestic league. However, they trail the leaders by 14 points. With Villarreal and Olympiacos (both in the bottom four) still to play in the league phase, they still have an outside chance of avoiding elimination.
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Qarabag FK vs Ajax last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Qarabag FK & Ajax Squad Analysis
We're at the stage now when some league games will feel like knockout cup ties. Qarabag started well in the league phase but their form has dipped in recent matches. With home advantage against the side in bottom position, this is a game they desperately need to win.
They are likely to employ a 4-2-3-1 formation for this home game. Jankovic and Bicalho will try to control the midfield for the home side. Up front, Qarabag will be relying on their Colombian striker Camilo Duran. Kady Borges is a doubt for them and may miss this game.
Ajax need to find a way to win this game.
Ajax have some selection problems too. Rayane Bounida is ill and Steven Berghuis is struggling with a groin injury. The Dutch club are just about at the point of no return. Not just because they haven't earned a point but they have an appalliing goal difference. They need to come away from Qarabag with a first win of the campaign but this is not the easiest of places to get an away victory.
A big problem for Ajax so far in this league phase has been the number of goals they have been conceding. Not scoring from open play hasn't been too helpful either though. Players such as Weghorst and Klaasen cannot be underestimated by Qarabag.
Most goals and assists
Qarabag FK
Ajax
W. Weghorst
(7 Goals)
C. Duran
(1 Assists)
, 
A. Zoubir
(1 Assists)
, 
M. Jankovic
(1 Assists)
M. Godts
(5 Assists)
Qarabag FK and Ajax Stats in Champions League
Qarabag FK - Ajax Key Points
- Qarabag are unbeaten in their last ten home games.
- Qarabag have kept nine clean sheets in those ten matches.
- Ajax are yet to score from open play in the league phase.
- Ajax have conceded 16 goals in their five league phase fixtures.
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Our Qarabag FK vs Ajax Prediction
Qarabag still have a chance of extending their European campaign. Their next two games are at home where they have proved to be difficult to beat this season. A win over Ajax would boost their chances of making the play-offs.
Ajax are yet to earn a point or score from open play. They have conceded at least twice in each of their five league phase games and are only fourth in the Dutch Eredivisie. It's do or die for them at present but our main Qarabag v Ajax prediction is Qarabag wins.
Qarabag FK vs Ajax - Other Interesting Predictions
Qarabag to score in the first half
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Qarabag FK vs Ajax match : Frequently asked questions
Qarabag are the home side in this Champions League game. It will be played at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku, Azerbaijan. Their two home games in this league phase have seen Qarabag earn four points.
This match will be broadcasted live in the UK by the subscription channel TNT Sports. If you want to be in constant touch with what's happening in Qarabag, go to our Champions League livescore to read updated statstics and live text commentary.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
