Europe - Champions League
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by Devesh Jaganath in Champions League Predictions
On Tuesday night, Kairat Almaty will step out on home soil for the grandest night in their history, as they dare to defy the odds against Europe’s most decorated dynasty, Real Madrid. The Nation’s Team are 33rd in the Champions League standings after the first week, while Los Blancos are 13th. Check out our match prediction below!
To illustrate how much of a David vs.Goliath match this is - the Kazakhstani side’s most expensive player, Dastan Satpaev, has a market value of around €1.80m, which is about the same amount that Kylian Mbappe earns in two weeks' wages. This fact alone tells you everything you need to know about the monumental task the hosts face in their first UCL home game ever.
For the 15-time champions, this match is as much a privilege as it is an inconvenience, as they will have to make an over 12,000km round trip to face the tournament debutants. Managing fatigue and playing in Asia poses a rare and demanding assignment for Los Merengues, who are entering the match off the back of a tonking in the Madrid Derby. Let’s get into the key stats!
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The Best Betting Odds for Kairat Almaty v Real Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
21 | 9.5 | 1.1 |
|
|
21 | 9 | 1.08 |
|
|
23 | 9.5 | 1.11 |
|
|
23 | 9 | 1.1 |
|
|
23 | 9.5 | 1.11 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Kairat Almaty and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Kairat Almaty vs Real Madrid match is: Real Madrid wins & over 3.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 30/09/2025 between Kairat Almaty and Real Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.94% for a win of Kairat Almaty against Real Madrid with odds of 29 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Kairat Almaty vs Real Madrid is 9.48% with odds of 10.8 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 54.58% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Kairat Almaty with odds of 1.13 at 22bet.
Kairat Almaty vs Real Madrid Form
Kairat Almaty and Real Madrid's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
13
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
|
33
|
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 |
Kairat Almaty and Real Madrid Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Sep 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
18 Sep 2025 - Champions League
14 Sep 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
31 Aug 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
26 Aug 2025 - Champions League
20 Aug 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Sep 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
14 Sep 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
26 Aug 2025 - Champions League
16 Aug 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
6 Aug 2025 - Champions League
2 Aug 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Sep 2025 - Champions League
31 Aug 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
20 Aug 2025 - Champions League
12 Aug 2025 - Champions League
26 Jul 2025 - Kazakhstan Premier League
22 Jul 2025 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
23 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
20 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
16 Sep 2025 - Champions League
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
16 Sep 2025 - Champions League
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
5 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
1 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
23 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
24 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
12 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
Kairat Almaty - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
Kairat Almaty kicked off their UCL debut with a historic trip to Lisbon, where they unfortunately proved no match for Sporting a fortnight ago, though they did score a consolation goal for their efforts in the 4-1 defeat.
However, the Nation’s Team bounced back from that loss superbly in their domestic league a few days later, beating Zhenys 3-1, to remain just one point behind current league leaders Astana.
While there is no denying the size of the task at hand this week, the hosts were excellent at home during qualifying for this competition, going unbeaten in their three games at this venue (W3 D1).
Kairat did not concede a single goal at home during their Champions League qualifiers!
Meanwhile, Real Madrid enter this match following a painful result in the Madrid Derby last weekend, when they squandered a 2-1 first-half lead to lose 5-2 to their cross-town rivals Atleti.
That result marked the first La Liga defeat of the Xabi Alonso era at the Bernabeu, and it came after the new boss oversaw seven consecutive wins this season, including a 2-1 victory over Marseille in this competition.
The visitors have scored two or more goals in all five of their away games this term. They did lose their last two matches on the road in the UCL last season, but that was against formidable opposition in Atletico Madrid and Arsenal.
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Kairat Almaty vs Real Madrid last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Kairat Almaty & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
Sherkhan Kalmurza etched his name in the history books in Lisbon by becoming the third-youngest goalkeeper in the tournament’s history at just 18 years and 96 days old.
The teenager, despite conceding four goals in the absence of regulars Temirlan Anarbekov and Aleksandr Zarutskiy, made several impressive saves, including denying Morten Hjulmand from the penalty spot.
Edmilson came off the bench to score Kairat’s only goal against Sporting, but he is unlikely to displace Dastan Satpayev, who took his goal tally for the season to 14 after bagging a brace this past weekend.
Who will start at right-back for Real Madrid in Kazakhstan?
This is one of the major decisions Alonso will have to make this week, with Trent Alexander-Arnold ruled out through injury and Dani Carvajal suspended for the red card he was shown against Marseille.
Carvajal picked up an injury over the weekend against Atleti, and he, along with Eder Militao, who sustained a knock to his knee in the same match, could be facing a spell on the sidelines.
Ferland Mendy and Antonio Rudiger are also on the mend from muscle strains. On a more positive note, Jude Bellingham made his first start of the season last time out, and Eduardo Camavinga got 30 minutes under his belt.
Most goals and assists
Kairat Almaty
Real Madrid
Edmilson
(1 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(10 Goals)
Ricardinho
(1 Assists)
V. Junior
(4 Assists)
Kairat Almaty and Real Madrid Stats in Champions League
Kairat Almaty - Real Madrid Key Points
- Kairat conceded four goals in their first match of the Champions League proper.
- Kairat have scored in every home game across all competitions this season.
- Real Madrid have scored two or more goals in each of their last seven matches.
- Real Madrid have only kept one clean sheet in their last six games.
- Four of Real Madrid’s last five away UCL games ended with 3+ goals scored.
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Our Kairat Almaty vs Real Madrid Prediction
It isn’t often that we see odds of 20.00+ for teams to win a match in the Champions League, but that clearly explains the task at hand for Kairat Almaty this week, when they host the 15-time champions.
Real Madrid will be aching to rebound from their heavy defeat to Atletico Madrid over the weekend, which ended their perfect start to the season, and we feel that Los Blancos will respond by romping to a big win in this one. Our Kairat Almaty vs Real Madrid prediction is Real Madrid wins & over 3.5.
Kairat Almaty vs Real Madrid - Other Interesting Predictions
Vincicius Junior to score anytime
Vincicius Junior has recorded seven goal contributions in his last six league games this season. He also scored eight goals and provided three assists in 12 Champions League matches last term.
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Kairat Almaty vs Real Madrid match : Frequently asked questions
The Champions League match between Kairat Almaty and Real Madrid will take place on September 30 at 17:45 BST.
The Champions League match between Kairat Almaty and Real Madrid will be played at the Ortalyq Stadion in Kazakhstan.
The Champions League match between Kairat Almaty and Real Madrid will be broadcast live on TNT Sports 2 in the UK. Alternatively, you can keep up with all the action using our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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