Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Fiorentina Prediction & Betting Tips - Conference League
Europe - Conference League
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by Ita Emmanuel | in Conference League Predictions
Jagiellonia host Fiorentina in this 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League Knockout Round Play-offs first leg on Thursday. Jaga finished 17th in the league phase standings with nine points, while Fiorentina were 14th on the same points, but with a superior goal difference. Here is our prediction for the match.
Jagiellonia secured their place in this round of the competition by picking up a valuable point against AZ Alkmaar in their final league-phase match. Despite managing just 35% possession and being reduced to 10 men in the 64th minute, they held their nerves and settled for a barren draw against the home side.
Overall, Adrian Siemieniec's side posted a respectable 2–3–1 record across their six 2025-26 UECL league-phase matches and are unbeaten in their last five competitive fixtures across all competitions. This includes a 0–0 draw against Cracovia in their domestic league fixture at the weekend.
Despite a relatively stronger finish in the league-phase standings, Fiorentina's 2025-26 UECL league-phase campaign was far below expectations. They suffered a shock 1–0 away defeat to Swiss side Lausanne in their last league-phase fixture, marking their third defeat in the competition, two of those on the road.
The Purples won their last match, defeating Como 2–1 away in Serie A over the weekend, but have struggled lately, failing to win four of their last five games overall.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Jagiellonia Bialystok v Fiorentina Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.9 | 3.35 | 2.5 |
|
|
3.16 | 3.16 | 2.38 |
|
|
3 | 3.26 | 2.42 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.2 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.25 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Jagiellonia Bialystok and Fiorentina?
Our prediction for the Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Fiorentina match is: Jagiellonia Bialystok or Draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 19/02/2026 between Jagiellonia Bialystok and Fiorentina in Conference League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45.41% for a win of Jagiellonia Bialystok against Fiorentina with odds of 3.3 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Fiorentina is 21.44% with odds of 3.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 33.15% chance ⭐ for a win of Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia Bialystok with odds of 2.5 at Stake.
Jagiellonia Bialystok - Fiorentina Prediction and Best Odds:
| Jagiellonia Bialystok Fiorentina Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia Bialystok wins | 45.41% | 3.3 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.21% | 2.05 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score | 76.19% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Jagiellonia Bialystok | 23.75% | 7 at Bet365 |
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Fiorentina Form
Jagiellonia Bialystok and Fiorentina Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Ekstraklasa
7 Feb 2026 - Ekstraklasa
31 Jan 2026 - Ekstraklasa
19 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
15 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Ekstraklasa
19 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
27 Nov 2025 - Conference League
14 Nov 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Nov 2025 - Ekstraklasa
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Ekstraklasa
31 Jan 2026 - Ekstraklasa
15 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
14 Dec 2025 - Ekstraklasa
7 Dec 2025 - Ekstraklasa
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Serie A
7 Feb 2026 - Serie A
31 Jan 2026 - Serie A
27 Jan 2026 - Coppa Italia
24 Jan 2026 - Serie A
18 Jan 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Serie A
27 Jan 2026 - Coppa Italia
24 Jan 2026 - Serie A
11 Jan 2026 - Serie A
4 Jan 2026 - Serie A
21 Dec 2025 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Serie A
31 Jan 2026 - Serie A
18 Jan 2026 - Serie A
7 Jan 2026 - Serie A
27 Dec 2025 - Serie A
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
Jagiellonia Bialystok against Fiorentina Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
A. Damasiewicz
DefenderB. Krasiewicz
Y. Kobayashi
MidfielderD. Drachal
E. Kozlowski
D. Rallis
Y. Sylla
M. Magalotti
P. Leonardelli
DefenderE. Sadotti
L. Balbo
E. Kouadio
F. Parisi
M. Pongracic
P. Bonanno
L. Deli
N. Fagioli
ForwardR. Braschi
G. Bertolini
Missing players
D. Rugani
ForwardA. Gudmundsson
Most goals and assists
Jagiellonia Bialystok
Fiorentina
J. Imaz Balleste
(3 Goals)
, 
B. Mazurek
(3 Goals)
C. Ndour
(4 Goals)
, 
A. Gudmundsson
(4 Goals)
A. Pululu
(2 Assists)
C. Ndour
(2 Assists)
Jagiellonia Bialystok - Fiorentina Key Points
- Jagiellonia Bialystok have won or drawn five of their six UEFA Europa Conference League league phase matches this season.
- Jagiellonia are unbeaten in their last five competitive matches across all competitions.
- Fiorentina have failed to win four of their last five matches across all competitions.
- Fiorentina have failed to win nine of their last 11 away matches.
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Our Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Fiorentina Prediction
Bookmakers are backing Fiorentina to ace this contest given the difference in quality between their respective leagues. However, the Serie A side are unlikely to stroll to victory on Thursday at Chorten Arena in Bialystok if their performance in the competition is anything to go by.
Meanwhile, Jagiellonia proved their mettle with a solid performance against a highly-rated opponent AZ Alkmaar last time out and boast a respectable record in the competition this season; hence, we are backing them to win or draw. Our Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Fiorentina prediction is Jagiellonia Bialystok or Draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Jagiellonia Bialystok Fiorentina
| Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Fiorentina | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia Bialystok wins | 3.5 | 3.3 | -5.7% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.4 | +3.0% |
| Fiorentina wins | 2.07 | 2.5 | +20.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Jagiellonia Bialystok is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 5.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 28.6% and is now 30.3% (1.7%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
