World - World Cup
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in World Cup Predictions
The top two teams in Group I of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification UEFA section will end their campaign as Norway look to avoid a very heavy defeat against Italy to confirm a direct spot. This match on Sunday in Milan between the second-placed Gli Azzurri and the top-placed ‘Red, White, and Blue’ comes with our prediction of more than 2.5 goals scored.
Italy have 18 points (W6, L1) in this qualification campaign and are three points behind Norway, who have won all seven of their games. Norway also have an advantage of +17 goal difference over Italy, which means they are certain to finish top of the table even if they lose. The top-placed team qualifies directly, while the second-placed side goes to the playoffs.
Italy won 2-0 away at Moldova on Thursday, which was their sixth win in a row in this campaign, but they are out of the race to finish first. Goals are still likely to be on offer here, as Italy have netted 20 goals in their seven qualifiers.
Norway won 4-1 at home against Estonia this week to make it nine competitive victories in a row. They have netted 33 goals in this qualification campaign, making them one of the best-scoring sides of the entire UEFA section, while conceding only four.
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The Best Betting Odds for Italy v Norway Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.15 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.15 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
|
|
2.1 | 3.3 | 3 |
|
|
2.05 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.16 | 3.65 | 3.05 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Italy and Norway?
Our prediction for the Italy vs Norway match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/11/2025 between Italy and Norway in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 38.85% for a win of Italy against Norway with odds of 2.16 at Unibet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Italy vs Norway is 12.24% with odds of 3.68 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 48.91% chance ⭐ for a win of Norway vs Italy with odds of 3.48 at LSbet.
Italy - Norway Prediction and Best Odds:
| Italy Norway Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Norway wins | 48.91% | 3.48 at LSbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.38% | 1.83 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 45.83% | 1.57 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time: Norway/Norway | 18.07% | 5 at Bet365 |
Italy vs Norway Form
Italy and Norway's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
24 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 32 |
|
2
|
18 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
Italy and Norway Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
17 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
14 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
22 Mar 2025 - World Cup
14 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
13 Oct 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6 Sept 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Norway Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
6 Jun 2025 - World Cup
Italy against Norway Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Most goals and assists
Italy
Norway
M. Retegui
(5 Goals)
E. Haaland
(16 Goals)
Italy - Norway Key Points
- In 11 of their last 14 matches, Norway saw over 2.5 goals scored.
- Norway scored at least three goals in eight of their recent nine games in all competitions.
- Twelve of the last 15 matches involving Italy produced three or more goals.
- Seven of Italy’s last eight home matches produced at least three goals.
- In four of Norway’s last five away matches, at least five goals were scored.
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Our Italy vs Norway Prediction
Barring a very heavy defeat in this match, Norway are already guaranteed a direct place in next year’s World Cup. Italy, on the other hand, are mentally getting ready to go through the playoffs. There are still brownie points to be won, and a win would continue Italy’s revival under Gennaro Gattuso after missing out on the last two editions of the World Cup.
More than a win, it’s the spectre of goals that looms large, as both teams have been amongst the goals recently. Our Italy vs Norway prediction is more than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Italy Norway
| Italy vs Norway | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy wins | 1.75 | 2.15 | +22.9% |
| Draw | 3.9 | 3.6 | -7.7% |
| Norway wins | 4 | 3.1 | -22.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Norway is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 22.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 25.0% and is now 32.3% (7.3%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Italy vs. Norway game!
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Try your luck on this year's World Cup! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
