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by Devesh Jaganath | in NBA Predictions
The NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder shifts to the Gainbridge Fieldhouse for Game 3 on Wednesday night. OKC beat the Pacers in Game 2 to level the series at 1-1. Let’s get into the match prediction.
The Thunder had a stunning regular season, finishing with the best record in the league (68-14). In the Playoffs, they breezed past the Grizzlies 4-0 before overcoming a true challenge against the Nuggets in seven. OKC secured the Western Conference title by beating the Timberwolves fairly easily, 4-1.
The Pacers have been underdogs almost permanently in the Playoffs after finishing fourth in the East with a 50-32 record. However, they only lost four games en route to the Eastern Conference title, beating the Bucks and Cavs 4-1 each, before downing the Knicks 4-2. Indiana stole home-court advantage by winning Game 1 of this series thanks to a Tyrese Haliburton buzzer-beater and will now look to go 2-1 up with the series heading to Indianapolis.
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The Best Betting Odds for Indiana Pacers v Oklahoma City Thunder Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
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2.85 | 1.43 |
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2.8 | 1.45 |
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2.65 | 1.48 |
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2.75 | 1.44 |
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2.7 | 1.44 |
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Who will win the Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Basketball game?
Our prediction for the Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder match is: Indiana Pacers +5.5.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder game on 11/06/2025 of the current NBA season:
- Indiana Pacers has a 38.95% chance to pick up the win against Oklahoma City Thunder according to 22bet ⭐ with the odds of 4.74.
- There is a probability of 61.05% ⭐ for Oklahoma City Thunder to win vs Indiana Pacers with odds of 1.48 at Betway.
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Form
Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder Last Matches
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4/6 (67%)
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5/6 (83%)
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3/6 (50%)
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Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
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Indiana Pacers - Oklahoma City Thunder: Form Analysis
After a calamitous collapse in Game 1, the Oklahoma City Thunder responded in style on Sunday, securing a 123-107 victory to level the series before heading on the road to Indianapolis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ended Game 2 as the top scorer once again for the Thunder, but he got plenty of support, with four of his teammates ending in double-digits.
Oklahoma’s bench added 48 points in the last match, thanks to big contributions by Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins!
Notably, OKC dominated inside the paint both on the offensive and defensive ends in Game 2, converting eight more shots than their opponents, while also grabbing eight more boards.
Meanwhile, after their dramatic comeback win in Game 1, the Indiana Pacers struggled to keep up with the Thunder in Game 2. They trailed by 19 points headed into Q4 and never looked likely to close the gap.
One of the key areas the Pacers will need to improve is reducing how many times they allow Oklahoma, especially SGA, to get to the free-throw line. OKC made 29/33 (87.9%) free throws in Game 2, compared to Indiana’s 19/26 (73.1%).
On the positive, though, all of the Pacers starters, along with two bench players, ended in double-digits in the last match, led by Tyrese Haliburton’s 17 points.
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Players list
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Indiana Pacers & Oklahoma City Thunder Squad Analysis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put up another 34 points and provided eight assists in Game 2. He has now scored 30+ points in nine consecutive home Playoff games - only Wilt Chamberlain has achieved this same feat in the past.
SGA has scored 72 points in this series - the most by any player in the first two games of an NBA Finals ever!
Despite the MVP continuing to break records, the standout performance of Game 2 for us came from Alex Caruso, who drained 20 points off the bench. He was also excellent on defence against Haliburton and contributed significantly to forcing the Pacers into 15 turnovers.
While the Pacers are expected to improve at home, there is a case to be made that they need their star man, Tyrese Haliburton, to step up his production if they are to take the series lead.
Haliburton has been crucial to the Pacers in the postseason. However, he has just 31 points in this series, and has perhaps gotten a little more praise than deserved over the two games due to that buzzer-beater in Game 1.
Indiana’s point guard was also seen hobbling after Game 2, which is something to keep an eye on. Isaiah Jackson is ruled out for the foreseeable future, while Jarace Walker could make a return in this match.
Indiana Pacers - Oklahoma City Thunder Key Points
- The Pacers are 8-4 ATS when installed as the underdogs in this season's Playoffs.
- The Pacers are 9-4 SU in their last 13 home games when installed as underdogs.
- The Thunder are 6-10 ATS in their last 16 games.
- The Thunder have lost their last six NBA Finals away matches.
- The Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their last seven away games when installed as favourites.
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Our Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
The Thunder were the most profitable team by a distance during the regular season, and by now, we know full well that this is a side that can blow away anyone on their day. However, they are now 6-10 ATS in their last 16 and have not covered in any of their last seven on the road as favourites.
The Pacers, meanwhile, have been underdogs through almost the entire Playoffs, and while they were beaten comfortably in Game 2, it’s worth noting that they have not lost back-to-back games since early March. At home, in front of a packed house, we’ll take the free points on the hosts in this one. Our Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction is Indiana Pacers +5.5.
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder - Other Interesting Predictions
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 33.5
SGA is averaging 36.0 PPG in this series and has scored 34+ points in each of his last four matches. He is also averaging 37.5 PPG against the Pacers this season.
Get up to £30 to bet on the Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on NBA!
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder match : Frequently asked questions
The NBA Finals Game 3 between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder will be played on June 11 at 19:30 (CT).
The NBA Finals Game 3 between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder will take place at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
The NBA Finals Game 3 between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder will be broadcast on ABC in the US, while UK viewers can tune in to TNT Sports and discovery+.
Alternatively, you can keep up to the minute with all the action using our NBA livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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