Heerenveen vs Ajax Prediction & Betting Tips - Eredivisie
Netherlands - Eredivisie
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Eredivisie Predictions
Ajax face a defining Sunday on matchday 34 of the 2025-26 Eredivisie against Heerenveen, with their European qualification in the balance. This match in Heerenveen has the ‘Super Frisians’ starting with little to play for, while the ‘Lancers’ are in the race to finish inside the top three. Taking Ajax’s indifferent away form into account, our prediction favours a home win or a draw.
Heerenveen have 50 points (W14, D8, L11) and have already qualified for the European competition play-offs. Ajax have 55 points (W14, D13, L6) and are one point behind fourth.
A 2-0 away defeat at Breda last weekend ended a two-game winning run for Heerenveen. They have been in good form lately, winning six of their last nine league games (D1, L2).
That record is largely driven by their home form, where they are unbeaten in six, and five consecutive Eredivisie wins make them a great threat for any side.
That’s bad news for Ajax, who need to win this game and pray for favourable results elsewhere. A 2-1 loss at home to Utrecht last weekend was a major blow in that regard, although Ajax have been indifferent with their results lately.
Ajax won their last two away league games, but a run of four draws and a defeat in five trips before that throws uncertainty over their chances.
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Heerenveen v Ajax Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.05 | 4.1 | 2.06 |
|
|
3.28 | 4.1 | 1.98 |
|
|
3.09 | 4.1 | 2.06 |
|
|
3.25 | 4.1 | 2 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.9 | 1.93 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Heerenveen and Ajax?
Our prediction for the Heerenveen vs Ajax match is: Heerenveen or draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/05/2026 between Heerenveen and Ajax in Eredivisie :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.88% for a win of Heerenveen against Ajax with odds of 3.35 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Heerenveen vs Ajax is 28.37% with odds of 4.2 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 28.76% chance ⭐ for a win of Ajax vs Heerenveen with odds of 2.1 at LSbet.
Heerenveen - Ajax Prediction and Best Odds:
| Heerenveen Ajax Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen wins | 42.88% | 3.35 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.69% | |
| Both Team To Score | 63.75% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Heerenveen | 15.85% | 8 at Bet365 |
Heerenveen vs Ajax Form
Heerenveen and Ajax's standings in the Eredivisie
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
56 | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | +21 |
|
8
|
51 | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +4 |
Heerenveen and Ajax Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Eredivisie
3 May 2026 - Eredivisie
25 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
12 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
5 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
22 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
5 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
14 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
28 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
15 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
1 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Eredivisie
3 May 2026 - Eredivisie
12 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
22 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
7 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
21 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Eredivisie
2 May 2026 - Eredivisie
25 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
11 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
4 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
22 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Eredivisie
2 May 2026 - Eredivisie
4 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
14 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
21 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
14 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
11 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
22 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
7 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
1 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
8 Feb 2026 - Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs Ajax Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Nov 2025 - Eredivisie
19 Jan 2025 - Eredivisie
11 Aug 2024 - Eredivisie
11 Feb 2024 - Eredivisie
5 Nov 2023 - Eredivisie
12 Mar 2023 - Eredivisie
Heerenveen against Ajax Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
N. Bakker
A. Noppert
DefenderN. Soyset Hopland
M. Egbring
H. Petrov
I. Mulder
MidfielderI. Ahmed
N. Courtens Mabeneyshi
E. Gurbuz
L. Brouwers
L. Nordas
C. Bonevacia
P. Reverson
V. van der Velde
DefenderA. Bouwman
M. Muzungu
T. Tomiyasu
R. van de Pavert
MidfielderY. Regeer
R. Bounida
O. Gloukh
ForwardK. Dolberg
D. Konadu
M. Carrizo
Missing players
M. Rivera
L. Smans
J. Heerkens
MidfielderK. Fitz-Jim
Most goals and assists
Heerenveen
Ajax
J. Trenskow
(13 Goals)
M. Godts
(17 Goals)
J. Overeem
(10 Assists)
M. Godts
(12 Assists)
Heerenveen - Ajax Key Points
- Heerenveen have avoided defeat in seven of their last nine Eredivisie games, winning six.
- Heerenveen have won their last five home league games.
- Ajax have failed to win seven of their last ten Eredivisie matches, losing three.
- Away from home, Ajax couldn’t win five of their last seven league games.
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Our Heerenveen vs Ajax Prediction
Heerenveen have already qualified for the European competition play-offs and can at best finish sixth. Ajax, on the other hand, need to win this match and get favourable results elsewhere to move up the table. The visitors are guaranteed a spot in the European competition play-offs, but a win could be difficult considering their recent indifferent form.
The reverse fixture ended in a 1-1 draw, and this outing could also end in at least a point for the hosts. Our Heerenveen vs Ajax prediction is Heerenveen or draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Heerenveen Ajax
| Heerenveen vs Ajax | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen wins | 3.1 | 3.35 | +8.1% |
| Draw | 4.1 | 4.2 | +2.4% |
| Ajax wins | 1.99 | 2.1 | +5.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Heerenveen is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 8.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 32.3% and is now 29.9% (-2.4%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Heerenveen vs. Ajax game
You can get yourself up to €100 in matched bets for the battle between Heerenveen and Ajax when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on Eredivisie!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
