Hamburg vs Union Berlin Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Hamburg will look to make the most of their home form when they host an out-of-sorts Union Berlin in a matchday 22 fixture of the Bundesliga. This match on Saturday in Hamburg between the 11th-placed ‘Red Shorts’ and the ninth-placed ‘Iron Ones’ comes with our prediction of a home win.
With 22 points from 20 games (W5, D7, L8), Hamburg find themselves three points above the relegation zone ahead of this round. Union are three points further ahead with 25 points from 21 matches (W6, D7, L8).
Hamburg won 2-0 away at Heidenheim last weekend to extend their unbeaten run to four league games (D3). This sequence has seen them move above the relegation zone while underlining their growing strengths.
The Red Shorts are very impressive at this venue and are unbeaten in their last six home league games (W2, D4). That includes impressive draws against the current top two in the league, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.
Union drew 1-1 at home against Eintracht Frankfurt last matchday, extending their wait for a win to six Bundesliga games (D4, L2). They are stuck in the midtable, closer to the relegation zone than the European qualification spots.
There’s no solace in their away form, as Union won just one of their last five away league matches (D2, L2).
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Hamburg v Union Berlin Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.48 | 3.25 | 3.15 |
|
|
2.47 | 3.12 | 3.06 |
|
|
2.42 | 3.14 | 3.12 |
|
|
2.3 | 3.25 | 3.2 |
|
|
2.48 | 3.1 | 2.98 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Hamburg and Union Berlin?
Our prediction for the Hamburg vs Union Berlin match is: Hamburg wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/02/2026 between Hamburg and Union Berlin in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 31.2% for a win of Hamburg against Union Berlin with odds of 2.55 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Hamburg vs Union Berlin is 51.03% with odds of 3.25 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 17.77% chance ⭐ for a win of Union Berlin vs Hamburg with odds of 3.29 at 888Starz.
Hamburg - Union Berlin Prediction and Best Odds:
| Hamburg Union Berlin Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 51.03% | 3.25 at Stake |
| Under 2.5 | 60.04% | 2.33 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 62.5% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 27.51% | 4.75 at Bet365 |
Hamburg vs Union Berlin Form
Hamburg and Union Berlin's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11
|
39 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | -14 |
|
13
|
38 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -14 |
Hamburg and Union Berlin Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
7 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
3 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
30 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
3 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
Hamburg vs Union Berlin Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
28 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
Hamburg against Union Berlin Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Substitutes
S. Tangvik
DefenderW. Mikelbrencis
D. Elfadli
G. Gocholeishvili
J. Dompe
O. Stange
O. Megeed
R. Philippe
Y. Poulsen
M. Raab
DefenderA. Markgraf
MidfielderT. Skarke
A. Schafer
A. Kral
J. Haberer
L. Burcu
D. Preu
O. Burke
Missing players
A. Sambi Lokonga
A. Gronbaek
ForwardA. Rossing Lelesiit
D. Leite
T. Rothe
ForwardR. Skov
Most goals and assists
Hamburg
Union Berlin
F. Vieira
(7 Goals)
O. Burke
(6 Goals)
F. Vieira
(5 Assists)
A. Ilic
(8 Assists)
Hamburg - Union Berlin Key Points
- Hamburg kept a clean sheet in three of their last four Bundesliga matches.
- Hamburg are unbeaten at home in their last six league games, winning two.
- Union lost two of their last three Bundesliga matches, drawing the other.
- Union were beaten in four of their last eight away Bundesliga games.
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Our Hamburg vs Union Berlin Prediction
Hamburg are a tough nut to crack at home, and even Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund couldn’t defeat them. Two wins out of their last five league matches at this venue is an apt reflection of their strengths here. To go with that, Union have been beaten in two of their last three Bundesliga games and are without a win in the league in 2026.
Only three points separate these sides ahead of this round, and although Union are ahead, Hamburg have an edge at home. That’s why our Hamburg vs Union Berlin prediction is Hamburg wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Hamburg Union Berlin
| Hamburg vs Union Berlin | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg wins | 2.21 | 2.55 | +15.4% |
| Draw | 3.2 | 3.25 | +1.6% |
| Union Berlin wins | 3.25 | 3.29 | +1.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have increased by 1.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 31.3% and is now 30.8% (-0.5%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
