Hamburg vs Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Freiburg will have to quickly turn their focus from Europe to the Bundesliga as they play Hamburg on matchday 33 of the 2025-26 campaign on Sunday. This match in Hamburg that will feature the 12th-placed ‘Red Shorts’ and the 7th-placed ‘Breisgau Brazilians’ is likely to be full of goals, and our prediction is more than 2.5 goals.
Hamburg have 34 points (W8, D10, L14) and confirmed their Bundesliga safety last matchday. Freiburg’s 44 points (W12, D8, L12) put them one point above eighth ahead of this round in the race to clinch the final qualification spot.
Hamburg won 2-1 away at Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend to brush away relegation fears. This victory marked their first in seven games (D2, L4) and came at a crucial moment.
The Red Shorts will look to finish their home campaign on a high, having lost just five of their 16 league games (W5, D6).
Freiburg made it to the Europa League final on Thursday with a 3-1 win over Braga for a 4-3 aggregate win. It was also their first win in five competitive games (D1, L3), giving them crucial momentum.
They drew 1-1 at home against Wolfsburg last weekend in the league, but it’s their away form that’s of concern. The visitors were beaten in four of their last six away Bundesliga matches (W2).
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Hamburg v Freiburg Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.75 | 3.65 | 2.48 |
|
|
2.72 | 3.68 | 2.42 |
|
|
2.7 | 3.7 | 2.42 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
|
|
2.72 | 3.55 | 2.4 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Hamburg and Freiburg?
Our prediction for the Hamburg vs Freiburg match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/05/2026 between Hamburg and Freiburg in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 28.66% for a win of Hamburg against Freiburg with odds of 2.85 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Hamburg vs Freiburg is 19.36% with odds of 3.84 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 51.98% chance ⭐ for a win of Freiburg vs Hamburg with odds of 2.51 at 888Starz.
Hamburg - Freiburg Prediction and Best Odds:
| Hamburg Freiburg Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Freiburg wins | 51.98% | 2.51 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.81% | 1.83 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 76.04% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Freiburg | 22.31% | 6.5 at LSbet |
Hamburg vs Freiburg Form
Hamburg and Freiburg's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
47 | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | -6 |
|
13
|
38 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -14 |
Hamburg and Freiburg Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 May 2026 - Europa League
3 May 2026 - Bundesliga
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
26 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Apr 2026 - DFB Pokal
19 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 May 2026 - Europa League
3 May 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
26 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Apr 2026 - DFB Pokal
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
12 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
Hamburg vs Freiburg Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
25 %
75 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
30 Oct 2024 - DFB Pokal
19 Apr 2022 - DFB Pokal
1 Dec 2017 - Bundesliga
Hamburg against Freiburg Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
S. Tangvik
DefenderD. Elfadli
S. Nandja
J. Torunarigha
L. Lemke
Philipas Otele
R. Philippe
F. Balde
Y. Poulsen
F. Muller
DefenderJ. Makengo
P. Lienhart
A. Jung
C. Gunter
MidfielderN. Hofler
D. Scherhant
C. Irie
M. Philipp
Missing players
F. Dickes
DefenderM. Muheim
ForwardA. Rossing Lelesiit
M. Rosenfelder
MidfielderD. Kyereh
P. Osterhage
Y. Suzuki
Most goals and assists
Hamburg
Freiburg
F. Vieira
(7 Goals)
I. Matanovic
(11 Goals)
F. Vieira
(5 Assists)
V. Grifo
(4 Assists)
, 
J. Manzambi
(4 Assists)
, 
M. Ginter
(4 Assists)
Hamburg - Freiburg Key Points
- Eight of Hamburg’s last 12 Bundesliga games have seen over 2.5 goals scored.
- Hamburg have an expected goals (xG) conceded tally of 57.7 with only three teams conceding more.
- Nine of Freiburg’s last 12 competitive games have also seen three or more goals during regular time.
- Seven of Freiburg’s last 11 away league games also produced at least three goals.
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Our Hamburg vs Freiburg Prediction
After securing their inaugural European final spot, Freiburg will aim to focus on their league commitments, despite their poor away performance. They have lost four of their last six away league trips and also the last three away games in all competitions. Hamburg have confirmed their place in next Bundesliga season and could perhaps play with some freedom.
The last three competitive matches produced three or more goals, and that trend could continue here, so our Hamburg vs Freiburg prediction is more than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Hamburg Freiburg
| Hamburg vs Freiburg | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg wins | 2.7 | 2.85 | +5.6% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.84 | +8.2% |
| Freiburg wins | 2.38 | 2.51 | +5.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Freiburg is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 5.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 42.0% and is now 39.8% (-2.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
