Genk vs Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tips - Europa League
Europe - Europa League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Europa League Predictions
Genk will be looking to make their home advantage count on Thursday night, when they host Freiburg in the first leg of their Europa League Round of 16 clash at Cegeka Arena. The winner of this tie between De Smurfen and the Breisgau-Brasilianer will face either Celta Vigo or Lyon in the quarter-finals. Check out our match prediction below!
“We qualified with blood, sweat and tears!” Those were the words of Nicky Hayen after his side’s thrilling victory over Dinamo Zagreb in the Knockout Playoffs. The Blue and Whites are now set to feature in the RO16 of this competition for the first time since 2016-17 (UEFA Cup) and are the underdogs in this tie.
Julian Schuster’s team is the seeded side in this clash, having clinched seventh place in the League Phase with 17 points. This is the Brazilians’ third appearance in the last 16 of the UEL in the last four seasons, but they have never got beyond this stage in this competition. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Genk v Freiburg Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.65 | 3.2 | 2.85 |
|
|
2.91 | 3.18 | 2.54 |
|
|
2.72 | 3.18 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.9 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
|
|
2.88 | 3.15 | 2.56 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Genk and Freiburg?
Our prediction for the Genk vs Freiburg match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/03/2026 between Genk and Freiburg in Europa League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 50.64% for a win of Genk against Freiburg with odds of 2.95 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Genk vs Freiburg is 30.51% with odds of 3.4 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.85% chance ⭐ for a win of Freiburg vs Genk with odds of 3.02 at 888Starz.
Genk - Freiburg Prediction and Best Odds:
| Genk Freiburg Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Genk wins | 50.64% | 2.95 at Shangrila |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.56% | 2.17 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.38% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Genk | 29.28% | 6.75 at LSbet |
Genk vs Freiburg Form
Genk and Freiburg Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Jupiler Pro League
1 Mar 2026 - Jupiler Pro League
26 Feb 2026 - Europa League
22 Feb 2026 - Jupiler Pro League
19 Feb 2026 - Europa League
13 Feb 2026 - Jupiler Pro League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Jupiler Pro League
26 Feb 2026 - Europa League
22 Feb 2026 - Jupiler Pro League
8 Feb 2026 - Jupiler Pro League
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
25 Jan 2026 - Jupiler Pro League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Jupiler Pro League
19 Feb 2026 - Europa League
13 Feb 2026 - Jupiler Pro League
1 Feb 2026 - Jupiler Pro League
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
17 Jan 2026 - Jupiler Pro League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
25 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
1 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
Genk - Freiburg: Form Analysis
Genk ended the League Phase with 16 points (W5 D1 L2), and missed out on the top eight only on goal difference. They defeated Zagreb 6-4 on aggregate in extra time after both sides won their away games 3-1 (regulation time) in the Knockout Playoffs.
However, the Smurfs lost 2-1 to Union Saint-Gilloise at the weekend, their third loss in four games in all competitions (in regulation time) - a notable dip after going unbeaten in their seven previous matches.
The hosts have won two, drawn one and lost two of their five UEL home games this season, but they’ve only managed three victories at Cegeka Arena in their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Nine of Genk’s last 12 home games have ended with both teams scoring!
Meanwhile, Freiburg went unbeaten in their first seven games during the League Phase of this competition (W5 D2) before losing to Ligue 1 outfit Lille 1-0 on Matchday 8 on the road.
The Brazilians earned a point in a six-goal thriller against Bayer Leverkusen over the weekend, but have only won two of their last eight matches across all competitions in regulation time (D2 L4).
The visitors took five points from their four UEL away games (W1 D2 L1). However, they were the stingiest defence across the League Phase, having only conceded four goals in their eight matches.
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Genk against Freiburg Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 1 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Substitutes
H. Van Crombrugge
DefenderM. Sadick
Y. Medina
A. Palacios
MidfielderK. Nkuba
Y. Sor
N. Sattlberger
A. Yokoyama
R. Mirisola
J. Steuckers
J. Ito
ForwardJ. Erabi
J. Huth
F. Muller
DefenderJ. Makengo
K. Steinmann
P. Lienhart
L. Kubler
A. Jung
MidfielderR. Tarnutzer
N. Hofler
ForwardC. Irie
D. Scherhant
L. Holer
Missing players
M. Rosenfelder
MidfielderD. Kyereh
Genk & Freiburg Squad Analysis
Daan Heymans was the hero here against Zagreb, as he scored Genk’s second goal in extra time to guarantee their victory. He has also been the team’s standout player in this competition, with eight goal contributions in as many appearances.
Zakaria El Ouahdi could be one to watch for the hosts this week. The Moroccan international bagged a brace in Zagreb last month and has contributed three goals and an assist from right-back in this competition.
Konstantinos Karetsas missed the last UEL match due to a concussion, but he is in contention to feature here, meaning the only expected absentee for the home side is teenager Josue Kongolo.
Vincenzo Grifo could become Freiburg’s all-time highest goal scorer this week!
The Italian international has two goals in this competition and opened the scoring for his side against Die Werkself at the weekend to draw level with Nils Petersen on 105 goals for the Black Forest outfit.
Noah Atubola has been excellent in goal for the Brazilians, keeping four clean sheets in his eight games. Only Lukas Hornicek of Braga has a higher clean sheet percentage in this competition.
Maximilian Eggestein is suspended for this match after being shown red against Lille, while Lukas Kubler, Daniel-Kofi Kyereh and Maximilian Rosenfelder are ruled out through injury for the visitors.
Most goals and assists
Genk
Freiburg
D. Heymans
(4 Goals)
, 
Z. El-Ouadi
(4 Goals)
V. Grifo
(5 Goals)
K. Karetsas
(4 Assists)
V. Grifo
(4 Assists)
Genk - Freiburg Key Points
- Genk have only kept two clean sheets in 10 UEL matches this season.
- Nine of Genk’s last 12 home games have ended with both teams scoring
- Freiburg have conceded two or more goals in three of their last four games.
- Freiburg have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last nine away games in all competitions.
- Freiburg only kept one clean sheet in their four away matches in this competition.
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Our Genk vs Freiburg Prediction
While Freiburg ended the League Phase with the best defensive record, much of their best work was done at home, as they only recorded one shutout in four matches on the road. They’ve now failed to keep a clean sheet in nine games across all competitions.
Genk have shown this season that they are well capable of scoring goals, but they also tend to concede frequently. In their last two home games, they’ve let in six goals, and we feel they will struggle to keep out the visitors in this one. Our Genk vs Freiburg prediction is BTTS.
Genk vs Freiburg Alternative Predictions
More than 2.5 goals
Genk wins
Genk have only lost one of their last six home games in all competitions in regulation time, while Freiburg are winless in their last seven on the road inside 90 minutes.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Genk Freiburg
| Genk vs Freiburg | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk wins | 2.65 | 2.95 | +11.3% |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.4 | +7.9% |
| Freiburg wins | 2.47 | 3.02 | +22.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Genk is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 11.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 37.7% and is now 33.9% (-3.8%)
Genk vs Freiburg - FAQs
The Europa League round of 16 first leg between Genk and Freiburg will take place on March 12 at 20:00 UTC.
The Europa League round of 16 first leg between Genk and Freiburg will be played at the Cegeka Arena in Genk.
The Europa League round of 16 first leg between Genk and Freiburg will be broadcast on RTBF (Belgium) and RTL/Sky(Germany). UK viewers can tune in to TNT Sports.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Europa League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
