WTA - WTA Rome
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by Steve Ashfield | in Tennis Predictions
Third seed Jessica Pegula faces 25th-seeded Elise Mertens in the Italian Open third round. The winner will take on either 13th-seed Diana Shnaider or unseeded Jaqueline Cristian in the last 16. Here's our match prediction.
Pegula is third in the latest rankings but up to second in the live list. The American has made a good start to her clay court season with the Charleston Open already being won, SInce then, the 31-year-old has reached one other quarter-final.
So far in Rome, Pegula has beaten Ashlyn Krueger in straight sets, losing only six games. Pegula trails Mertens 3-1 in previous meetings with the Belgian winning the only match played on clay two years ago. Pegula beat her in this year's Australian Open.
Elise Mertens is 24th in the live rankings and has reached one clay court quarter-final this year. Five of her eight matches on this surface in 2025 have been won. Her last two losses have both been inflicted by world number one Aryna Sabalenka.
To reach this third round, Mertens beat Suzan Lamens. It took her 182 miinutes and she had to come from a set down to win. Mertens is 17th in the WTA Race, 12 places below her opponent.
We tip Pegula to win this match.
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The Best Betting Odds for Elise Mertens v Jessica Pegula Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2.75 | 1.44 |
|
|
2.5 | 1.48 |
|
|
2.57 | 1.52 |
|
|
2.55 | 1.45 |
|
|
2.61 | 1.5 |
|
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Who will win the Elise Mertens vs Jessica Pegula Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Elise Mertens vs Jessica Pegula match is: Jessica Pegula to win.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Elise Mertens vs Jessica Pegula game on 10/05/2025 of the current WTA Rome season:
- Elise Mertens has a 38.08% chance to win against Jessica Pegula according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 2.75.
- Jessica Pegula has a 61.92% probability of winning facing Elise Mertens ⭐ with odds of 1.52 at Vbet.
Elise Mertens vs Jessica Pegula Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Elise Mertens has a 38.08 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Elise Mertens | 38.08 % |
| Jessica Pegula | 61.92 % |
Elise Mertens vs Jessica Pegula Form
Elise Mertens and Jessica Pegula Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
8 May 2025 - WTA Rome
27 Apr 2025 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
25 Apr 2025 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
19 Apr 2025 - WTA Stuttgart Open
16 Apr 2025 - WTA Stuttgart Open
14 Apr 2025 - WTA Stuttgart Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
8 May 2025 - WTA Rome
27 Apr 2025 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
25 Apr 2025 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
19 Apr 2025 - WTA Stuttgart Open
17 Apr 2025 - WTA Stuttgart Open
6 Apr 2025 - WTA Charleston Open
Elise Mertens vs Jessica Pegula Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
14 Jan 2025 - WTA Australian Open
2 Jun 2023 - WTA French Open
Elise Mertens - Jessica Pegula Key Points
- Pegula has won one clay court tournament this year.
- Pegula has won eight of her ten clay court matches played in 2025.
- Pegula is up to second in the live rankings and is fifth in the WTA Race.
- Mertens struggled in round two, needing to go to three sets to win her match.
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Our Elise Mertens vs Jessica Pegula Prediction
Jessica Pegua only played six matches on clay last year. The American has been far more active in 2025 and has won eight out of ten matches with one title won. The American is up to second in the live rankings.
Elise Mertens has made a steady start to the new clay court season but struggled in her one match this week. That doesn't bode well for this match against the third seed. Our Elise Mertens v Jessica Pegula prediction is Jessica Pegula to win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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