Derby County vs Swansea Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship
England - Championship
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by Ita Emmanuel | in Championship Predictions
11th-placed Derby County hosts 15th-placed Swansea in this Championship Round 32 fixture on Saturday at Pride Park. Can the Rams bounce back from last week’s defeat and strengthen their bid for a top-six finish with a win against the Swans? Here is our prediction for the match.
Derby County fell short of breaking into the top six last week following a 2–1 home defeat to third-placed Ipswich Town. That result brought their four-game unbeaten run to an end and saw them slip to 11th in the standings with 45 points – two points behind the play-off places.
Notably, John Eustace’s men are enduring a patchy run of results at home. They have failed to win eight of their last nine matches at Pride Park, but have maintained a decent scoring record, finding the net in their last 14 fixtures at the venue.
Zan Vipotnik struck twice as Swansea thrashed bottom-placed Sheffield Wednesday 4–0 on Sunday to move up to 15th in the standings with 42 points – three points behind Derby County. That result marked their third win in four Championship matches.
However, Vítor Matos’ side have not been convincing in their road games. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in eight of their last 10 away matches, seven of those ended in defeat.
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Derby County v Swansea Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.47 | 3.15 | 2.95 |
|
|
2.48 | 3.13 | 2.86 |
|
|
2.47 | 3.14 | 2.9 |
|
|
2.45 | 3.2 | 2.75 |
|
|
2.48 | 3.15 | 2.9 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Derby County and Swansea?
Our prediction for the Derby County vs Swansea match is: Derby County score between 1–2 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/02/2026 between Derby County and Swansea in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 40.49% for a win of Derby County against Swansea with odds of 2.6 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Derby County vs Swansea is 20.44% with odds of 3.25 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.07% chance ⭐ for a win of Swansea vs Derby County with odds of 3 at Tonybet.
Derby County - Swansea Prediction and Best Odds:
| Derby County Swansea Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Derby County wins | 40.49% | 2.6 at LSbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.29% | 2.22 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score | 65.63% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Derby County/Derby County | 17.88% | 4.1 at LSbet |
Derby County vs Swansea Form
Derby County and Swansea's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
69 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | +8 |
|
11
|
64 | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | -2 |
Derby County and Swansea Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
30 Jan 2026 - Championship
23 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
23 Jan 2026 - Championship
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
4 Jan 2026 - Championship
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
29 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Dec 2025 - Championship
15 Dec 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Feb 2026 - Championship
31 Jan 2026 - Championship
24 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Feb 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
19 Dec 2025 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Jan 2026 - Championship
24 Jan 2026 - Championship
4 Jan 2026 - Championship
29 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Dec 2025 - Championship
13 Dec 2025 - Championship
Derby County vs Swansea Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
25 %
25 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
25 Nov 2025 - Championship
5 Apr 2025 - Championship
27 Nov 2024 - Championship
1 May 2019 - Championship
Derby County against Swansea Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Substitutes
R. O'Donnell
DefenderD. Murkin
D. Batth
C. Forsyth
MidfielderL. Thompson
B. Clark
J. Banel
L. Salvesen
C. Morris
A. Fisher
DefenderJ. Key
I. Samuels-Smith
J. Ward
MidfielderL. Walta
M. Yalcouye
J. Fulton
M. Widell
G. Nunes
Missing players
Z. Inoussa
Most goals and assists
Derby County
Swansea
C. Morris
(12 Goals)
Z. Vipotnik
(23 Goals)
J. Ward
(9 Assists)
J. Tymon
(7 Assists)
Derby County - Swansea Key Points
- Derby County have scored in their last 22 matches across all competitions.
- Derby County have found the net in their last 14 home matches.
- Swansea have conceded in eight of their last 10 away matches.
- Swansea have conceded between 1–2 goals in three of their last four matches against Derby County.
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Our Derby County vs Swansea Prediction
This match promises to be a cracker as both sides look to bolster their chances of finishing in the playoff places. Derby County will be itching to bounce back after Saturday's defeat to Ipswich. They have enjoyed a decent scoring streak, spanning 22 matches, including 14 at Pride Park.
Swansea appeared to have found their rhythm lately, but struggled to shore up their defence on the road, conceding in eight of their last 10 away matches. Our Derby County vs Swansea prediction is Derby County score between 1–2 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Derby County Swansea
| Derby County vs Swansea | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County wins | 2.2 | 2.6 | +18.2% |
| Draw | 3.1 | 3.25 | +4.8% |
| Swansea wins | 3.6 | 3 | -16.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Derby County is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 18.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 45.5% and is now 38.5% (-7.0%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
