Derby County vs Stoke Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship
England - Championship
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by Nella Wagah | in Championship Predictions
Derby County will be back at home to take on Stoke City in a Monday Championship match. With six matches to go, Stoke are 12th in the standings, four places behind Derby, who are four points below the top six. Let’s have a look at the match prediction.
Derby are coming off a 3-2 loss at Coventry, seeing their two-game winning run come to an end. The Rams will be confident of bouncing back as they return home.
In their last four home league matches, they posted straight wins. The last time they hosted this encounter, the two sides drew 0-0. However, Derby are unbeaten in their last five home matches against Stoke, winning twice.
Stoke City had a winning return after the international break, beating relegated Sheffield Wednesday 2-0. That happened to be only their third win in the last 15 outings.
A game against Derby will be tougher, as they face a side on a good run at home. That’s, however, not what makes this a difficult trip; the Potters have been poor on the road in recent weeks.
They head into this game having lost each of the last four away matches and are winless in six. In their 20 league games away from home this season, Stoke won only six, losing 10.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Derby County v Stoke Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.89 | 3.6 | 3.95 |
|
|
1.73 | 3.7 | 4.56 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.55 | 4.08 |
|
|
1.66 | 3.9 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.73 | 3.7 | 4.7 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Derby County and Stoke?
Our prediction for the Derby County vs Stoke match is: Derby County wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/04/2026 between Derby County and Stoke in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 55.75% for a win of Derby County against Stoke with odds of 1.89 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Derby County vs Stoke is 23.91% with odds of 3.9 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 20.35% chance ⭐ for a win of Stoke vs Derby County with odds of 4.8 at Tonybet.
Derby County - Stoke Prediction and Best Odds:
| Derby County Stoke Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Derby County wins | 55.75% | 1.89 at Stake |
| Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 2 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 57.5% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Derby County | 24.49% | 5 at LSbet |
Derby County vs Stoke Form
Derby County and Stoke's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
69 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | +8 |
|
17
|
55 | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | -5 |
Derby County and Stoke Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Apr 2026 - Championship
21 Mar 2026 - Championship
16 Mar 2026 - Championship
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Mar 2026 - Championship
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
14 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
23 Jan 2026 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Apr 2026 - Championship
16 Mar 2026 - Championship
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
24 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
30 Jan 2026 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Apr 2026 - Championship
20 Mar 2026 - Championship
14 Mar 2026 - Championship
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Apr 2026 - Championship
14 Mar 2026 - Championship
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
25 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Mar 2026 - Championship
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
11 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
24 Jan 2026 - Championship
Derby County vs Stoke Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Aug 2025 - Championship
3 May 2025 - Championship
2 Nov 2024 - Championship
30 Dec 2021 - Championship
31 Jan 2020 - Championship
13 Mar 2019 - Championship
Derby County against Stoke Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
J. Thompson
DefenderS. Langas
M. Johnston
C. Forsyth
MidfielderL. Thompson
C. Allen
O. Fraulo
J. Banel
L. Salvesen
T. Simkin
DefenderA. Cresswell
B. Gibson
MidfielderB. Joon-ho
B. Pearson
L. Baker
M. Manhoef
M. Smit
S. Gallagher
Missing players
V. Johansson
DefenderB. Wilmot
M. Talovierov
MidfielderA. Ampah
Most goals and assists
Derby County
Stoke
C. Morris
(12 Goals)
S. Thomas
(10 Goals)
J. Ward
(9 Assists)
S. Thomas
(11 Assists)
Derby County - Stoke Key Points
- Stoke City lost their last four away matches.
- Derby won each of their last four games at home.
- Stoke City are winless in four of their last six matches.
- Derby are unbeaten in five home games against Stoke, winning two.
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Our Derby County vs Stoke Prediction
Derby had a tough outing last time out in Coventry, losing to the league leaders. Stoke City will be a more manageable opponent, and Derby will be keen on bouncing back, having won four times in the initial five matches.
Their home matches against Stoke have also been fruitful in recent times, while this encounter finds the Potters on a poor streak on the road. Mark Robins’ men have suffered straight losses in the last four away games. Based on these numbers, our prediction for Derby County v Stoke is that Derby County wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Derby County Stoke
| Derby County vs Stoke | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County wins | 2.01 | 1.89 | -6.0% |
| Draw | 3.5 | 3.9 | +11.4% |
| Stoke wins | 3.6 | 4.8 | +33.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Derby County is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 6.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 49.8% and is now 52.9% (3.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
